3 really simple reasons Chip Kelly’s UCLA is so bad

Because of the sheer mystery, Chip Kelly’s first UCLA was one of the most intriguing teams to talk about this offseason. After a strange and disappointing stint in the NFL — which ended with him running one of the league’s least creative offenses — we didn’t know what “Chip Kelly Offense” meant in the year 2018.

Hell, we didn’t even know who his quarterback was going to be: Michigan grad transfer Wilton Speight? Sophomore Devon Modster? Incoming true freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson?

First, Kelly chose Speight, but the senior completed eight passes for 45 yards against Cincinnati, then got hurt. That cleared the way for Thompson-Robinson; Modster transferred.

UCLA has looked very much like an offense led by a true freshman. They are 120th in success rate and 96th in Off. S&P+ through four games, and they have yet to play a defense anywhere near as good as the one they will face in Week 6 (7:30 p.m. ET, Fox). Washington ranks second in Def. S&P+, and while they will give you some successful plays here and there (27th in success rate allowed), they are third in stopping explosiveness.

The gods of college football tend to unfurl some strange tricks each year, but it will be a surprise if UCLA can keep up with Washington for more than 25 minutes. The Huskies have been merely good offensively, but UCLA has yet to allow fewer than 26 points, and ... well ... it’s hard to see the Bruins scoring even 20 against UW.

So how did we get here?

What the hell is wrong with Kelly’s offense besides the whole “freshman QB” thing? It’s not like they were looking that good with a senior either.

To answer the last question first: probably not. S&P+ says that even though they are projected underdogs in every remaining game, the Bruins only have about a nine percent chance of going winless. Between games against Arizona (43 percent win probability), California (30 percent), Utah (29 percent), Arizona State (26 percent), Stanford (25 percent), and USC (24 percent), they’ll probably find at find a couple of wins — S&P+ gives them a 64 percent chance of winning two or more.

What’s up?

Going from Jim Mora’s pro-style-when-possible system to Kelly’s tempo-and-options attack is a lot. Add in Kelly’s fascination with sports science, an emphasis on tempo (even now, with the freshman, UCLA is 31st in adjusted pace), and what I’ll call Kelly’s unique personality, and you could see a full-on “burn it down and start over” year.

It’s a hard thing to predict, but it’s not surprising to see Year Zero in full effect here.

I just listed all of the senior contributors on offense.

Thompson-Robinson is behind center, fellow freshman Kazmeir Allen leads the Bruins in rushing (he has just 173 yards), and while the two leading receivers (Theo Howard and tight end Caleb Wilson) are juniors, there are five freshmen and sophomores among the eight members of the receiving corps targeted at least six times.

It’s even worse on defense, where senior defensive backs Nate Meadors and Adarius Pickett (50.5 tackles, two tackles for loss, three passes defensed) are drowning in a sea of youth — 16 of the current 23 players listed on the defensive two-deep are either freshmen or sophomores.

This is a recipe for disaster, especially when the schedule is this unforgiving.

UCLA is bad, but the Bruins aren’t 2016 Kansas bad. They’re 87th in S&P+, which can happen in a youth movement, but the biggest problem is who they’re facing.

Compared to preseason projections, Cincinnati and Colorado have been among the bigger overachievers in the country — Luke Fickell’s Bearcats were projected 89th in S&P+ but are up to 52nd, while Mike MacIntyre’s Buffaloes started 84th and are up to 44th — and those are the two worst teams UCLA has played so far.

Fresno State just crept into the S&P+ top 25, and Oklahoma is sixth. These four have beaten the Bruins by an average score of 38-17.

The Bruins have shown signs of competitiveness — they were tied with Cincinnati heading into the fourth quarter, trailed Oklahoma by only 14 and Fresno State by nine at halftime, and led CU midway through the third quarter. But they just didn’t have the staying power.

There is not a single cupcake on the schedule — the Bruins even miss Oregon State in conference play. All 12 former and future opponents currently rank 63rd or better.

With a softer schedule, this would still be an obvious rebuilding job, but we’d be talking about a potential 4-8 team, not one that needs to pull an upset to avoid 0-12.

Viewed through that lens, a disaster makes sense.

Kelly might get things turned around quickly. To use the ultimate Year Zero example, Lou Holtz went 0-11 in his first season at South Carolina, then 8-4 and 9-3 over the next two seasons. Kelly is a veteran with a massive history of college success.

However, he’s got only eight commits for 2019 so far, and according to the 247Sports Composite, none are four-star prospects. He’s probably not going to be able to rely on new talent to dig him out of this first-year hole. Any growth is going to have to come from development and growing pains.

It’s also probably not going to come until 2019 at the earliest.