Did you see the spread for the Michigan at Rutgers game?
The hilarious Michigan vs. Rutgers spread is a perfect example of a correlated parlay
What is a correlated parlay?
Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
It’s 38 points.
That is a huge number for a conference game, much less one on the road.
But Rutgers is terrible, and Michigan has been vaporizing teams in the last month. And it has a history of killing Rutgers, like the 78-0 nothing score in 2016.
Combined with the over/under, though, this game gets really interesting. The over/tnder is 44.5 points.
This sets up a classic correlated parlay situation.
What is a correlated parlay?
A correlated parlay is a parlay wager (a combination or two or more bets, all of which must win in order for the parlay to win) in which one bet is highly correlated to the other.
In this case, you could parlay Michigan -38 and the Over 44.5. There are very few combinations by which Michigan could cover the spread and not go over 44.5.
The combinations are 39-0, 40-0, 41-0, 41-2, 42-0, 42-2, 43-0, and 44-0.
The chance that one of those combinations hit is extremely small. All other combinations of Michigan covering involve the game going over.
You can even do the reverse, too, if you want, taking Rutgers and the under, because the chance that the game stays Under the total of 44.5 without Rutgers covering is extremely small.
Except most casinos won’t allow you to combine these particular wagers. For a reason.
Go ahead, try it. In Vegas, they’ll tell you no. Most of your online sportsbooks are also going to decline it.
Your local bookie might, if you’re a career loser.
The reason is that they are too correlated. The reason why books offer parlays is because they are hard to hit. Making the events strongly correlated, as opposed to independent events.
So now you know what a correlated parlay is, and can impress your friends at the water cooler.
