Ranking college football’s Week 12 final scores by surprising-ness

Finally, it is time for Rivalry Week. For most of the last few weeks, we’ve known what games would end up being the biggest of the year, and they’re finally approaching: Michigan-Ohio State to decide Michigan’s national title fate (and that of the Big Ten East), Oklahoma-WVU to decide OU’s lingering national title fate (and a spot in the Big 12 title game), Washington-Washington State to decide the Pac-12 North, etc. This has not been a season full of week-to-week thrills, but we’ve made it.

First, though, let’s take one last look back at Week 12. It was a lookahead week for most top teams, but aside from WVU, they eventually pulled ahead and won semi-comfortably — Bama was somehow tied with The Citadel at half but won by 33, Clemson trailed Duke after a quarter but won by 29, Michigan trailed Indiana at half but won by 11, and Oklahoma just kept letting Kansas score but won by 15.

Let’s look back at Week 12 action by looking at the difference between projection and reality. S&P+ had an okay week, going 50 percent against the spread. Whether the numbers are dialed in or not, however, there are always surprises. There were plenty this weekend.

Using the S&P+ projections as a guide, let’s look at which games played out as expected and which ones very, very much did not.

(Rankings listed below are from the most recent CFP rankings.)

Oregon was in control for most of the game but needed a two-point conversion stop and a late fumble recovery to nail this projection.

Wisconsin made up an 11-point deficit in the final quarter and won in triple overtime; yep, just as S&P+ projected, ahem.

Tale of two halves: USF won the first half, 17-0, and Temple won the second, 27-0.

This was almost destined to be a tight game, but I was expecting Nebraska’s good offense/bad defense combo to drag this game into the 20s or 30s; instead, bad weather and MSU’s good defense/bad offense combo made this a slog. Still fun at the end, though.

I’m still wondering why WVU’s Dana Holgorsen sat on his timeouts with under a minute left. The Mountaineers probably could have gotten a couple more shots at OSU’s end zone had they not let 15 seconds run while going no-huddle with two timeouts left.

FSU somehow still has a chance to keep its bowl streak alive, but the Noles will need an upset of Florida to pull it off.

Had this one nailed until FAU scored one last time in the closing minutes.

I thought this projection had a chance of fulfillment when it went to overtime (just needed Ole Miss to win with a two-point conversion), but SEC officials made a frankly baffling overtime incompletion call (as, um, colorfully described by our Ole Miss blog here), and VU prevailed.

Utah’s win and Arizona State’s loss gave the Utes the Pac-12 South crown. In just eight seasons, all six South programs have won a division title. That’s a level of parity to which any other conference can only aspire. (It also says something about the level to which USC and UCLA have not had their acts together, I guess.)

This was an amazing, baffling game, and I hate that it ended because of a horrible, inaccurate pass from Maryland’s Tyrell Pigrome. After all the silliness that ensued, we deserved a fun ending of some sort, not a heart-breaking one.

Miami took out a lot of pent-up frustrations in this one.

Trace McSorley was painfully inaccurate, the PSU run game didn’t click as well as you’d expect, and this one could have been even closer if not for the most Rutgers play of a very Rutgers season.

Chip Kelly’s had a tough year at UCLA, but this certainly puts a bit of a shine on things.

WKU has been monstrously disappointing this season; bolting ahead 40-0 at halftime had to feel awfully good.

Power to Pitt for closing the deal. The Panthers were down at halftime, and Wake Forest’s defense was looking confident. Then Pitt went out and won the ACC Coastal with a 28-3 second half.

A hell of a pre-Apple Cup performance by the increasingly confident Cougs.

You had to figure Bill Snyder had one last surprise in him this year. And if his Wildcats have one more in them, they could still qualify for a bowl with an upset of Iowa State next week.

This might have been the most stunning result of the week for me. Buffalo still leads the MAC East by a game and can clinch the division with a win at Bowling Green, but woof.

A few of these “way, way off” games were of the “easy projected win gets very much out of hand” variety. Iowa takes the cake in that category.