How Mike Leach’s Washington State can finally slay Chris Petersen’s Huskies

For as long as Chris Petersen’s been in Seattle, Washington’s owned the Apple Cup. The Huskies have won five in a row against Washington State, four of those under Petersen. Mike Leach’s Wazzu has yet to stay within 17 points.

2018 is Wazzu’s best shot to not only stay close, but to stay alive in the Playoff race for at least another week.

The Cougars are favored in the Apple Cup (by 3) for the first time since 2006. S&P+ gives them a 51 percent chance to win, with a 0.3-point projection. Leach’s WSU has never been better positioned to take on Petersen’s UW, and for the Cougs, that edge couldn’t come at a better time — because, for a change, it’s Wazzu that still has the Playoff shot.

For Washington State to win the Pac-12 North, it needs to check a few boxes.

Washington hasn’t played to recent standards this year, but despite losing star tackle Vita Vea and inside linebacker Keishawn Bierria to the NFL, the Huskies still stop the run. They’re No. 11 in Defensive Rushing S&P+ and have done a particularly good job keeping teams off schedule by limiting efficiency. They haven’t let up more than 3.8 yards per carry in a game since Week 6 against UCLA.

Meanwhile, Wazzu — which in recent years has been better than Leach teams get credit for at running the ball — has struggled to run in 2018. The offensive line does a good job getting some forward push and avoiding losses and no-gains (10th in Stuff Rate), but the Cougars grade middlingly in rushing efficiency and poorly in rushing explosiveness.

If they’re going to move the ball, it’ll be Minshew doing the bulk of the work. Of course, Washington’s pass D isn’t a slouch either.

The Huskies are tremendous at preventing the big passing play. They’re No. 1 among all pass defenses in Marginal Explosiveness. Their secondary is 19th in Havoc Rate, a measurement of pass breakups, interceptions, forced fumbles, and tackles for loss.

The keys to limiting big plays are the two veteran safeties, Taylor Rapp and JoJo McIntosh, who were both important pieces for the ‘16 Playoff team. (That team also had Budda Baker at safety. Sheesh.)

Washington’s just 57th in Marginal Efficiency against the pass, though. You can complete a chunk of throws against the Huskies and keep the sticks moving. The air raid is built around quick distribution all across the field, and that should fit well to attack UW’s relative weakness. Of Minshew’s top four targets (three receivers and running back James Williams), three profile mainly as possession receivers.

Wazzu’s No. 1 in Sack Rate allowed, and Washington’s a lousy No. 114 at that on defense. Minshew throws so quickly after getting the snap, and he shouldn’t be hurried much in this game. He’ll continue to sling a lot of short throws in this game. If the Cougars win, it’ll be because they stayed on schedule all the way down the field.

Browning’s had a lot of brilliant moments in four seasons as his team’s starter, and his overall numbers are pretty good. But he does sometimes swing back and forth between looking great and overwhelmed, often within the same game. (Maybe the best example: Week 1 at Auburn, when he averaged 9.3 yards per throw and had 296 yards in total, but also had two turnovers, including an awful fumble inside Auburn’s 10.)

Wazzu’s good at generating pressure. The Cougars are 24th in Defensive Sack Rate and go up to sixth in that stat on passing downs. The Huskies are 71st in avoiding Sack Rate (105th on pass downs) and have often struggled to keep Browning standing up. Wazzu doesn’t have one sack master, but it has nine guys with at least two takedowns. Bringing varied, consistent heat against Browning would go a long way.

In Browning’s three Apple Cups so far, he’s been great once (2016), fine once (2015), and pretty mediocre once (2017). The games haven’t been close enough for the finer points of his performance to matter, but that should change in 2018.

And they’re bad at pretty much everything:

That contributes to consistently mediocre field percentage. The Washington defense starts its average drive at the other team’s 30.5-yard line, 96th in FBS. The offense starts at its own 30.7, which is 42nd.

Wazzu’s special teams aren’t great, but at No. 81 in S&P+, they’re a good deal better than Washington’s. If these units play as they usually do, the Cougars should get some shorter fields they could turn into crucial points.