Each week, I update a board of projected winners for every FBS game, tally up records, and guess what the Playoff committee and bowl committees would do with the results. Things get closer and closer to eventual accuracy as Selection Sunday nears, but more importantly, it’s some weekly fun!
New bowl projections with just ONE. SATURDAY. LEFT.
Here are picks for all 40 bowl games, updated after this weekend’s results.
Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
Below, projections for all 40 2018 bowl games. A lot of these will change a bit over the final weekend, so if you don’t like where your team is listed, good luck on the field!
First, the College Football Playoff
- Cotton (Arlington, Texas): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
- Orange (Miami): No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
- Championship (Santa Clara, California): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Clemson
Not automatically subbing Ohio State in for Michigan. A 12-1 Buckeye resume would look a bit different than a 12-1 Wolverine resume would’ve, though that surprise beatdown surely covered a ton of ground. I think the decisive factors for the committee in picking Ohio State over Oklahoma would be OU’s terrible defense and OSU’s big win over Michigan, even though I think OU will end up with the better overall case. Obviously, a lot will depend on how both teams look on Saturday.
Otherwise:
Notre Dame has punched its ticket a week early, as Oklahoma did in 2015, and without winning a conference, as Alabama and Ohio State have both done before. Bama’s quite possibly already clinched a spot. And Clemson merely needs to beat Pitt, which has no point other than shocking No. 2 teams late in seasons.
Next: the rest of the New Year’s Six
- Sugar (New Orleans): Texas vs. Georgia
- Rose (Pasadena, California): Ohio State vs. Washington
- Peach (Atlanta): Florida vs. UCF
- Fiesta (Glendale, Arizona): LSU vs. Michigan
After Tuesday night’s rankings reveal, I was surprised to see Washington State at No. 13 instead of No. 11 or 12. That almost certainly knocks a 10-win Wazzu out of the New Year’s Six. Meanwhile, Penn State would make it, unless a team like Texas, Northwestern, or Pitt steals a bid. If OU’s in the Playoff, Texas does just that as the highest-ranked Big 12 team available.
The Sugar and Rose are based on conference ties. Barring upsets, they’re more or less locked in.
And remember: UCF must beat Memphis in order to make it. The Group of 5’s highest-ranked conference champion gets a NY6 bid. If Memphis beats a UCF that’s without QB McKenzie Milton, then the Fresno-Boise winner is in the Fiesta ... unless you think the committee’s keeping a 10-1 non-power in the top 12.
And now, everything else
I’ve adjusted the Big Ten and Pac-12 games here, with Penn State moving up and Wazzu moving down. That also impacted a lower-tier game or two.
- Citrus (Orlando): Penn State vs. Kentucky
- Outback (Tampa): Iowa vs. Texas A&M
- Gator (Jacksonville): Michigan State vs. South Carolina
- Holiday (San Diego): Northwestern vs. Utah
- Liberty (Memphis): Oklahoma State vs. Auburn
- Military (Annapolis, MD): Cincinnati vs. Boston College
- Sun (El Paso): Virginia vs. Arizona State
- Belk (Charlotte): Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
- Alamo (San Antonio): West Virginia vs. Washington State
- Arizona (Tucson): San Diego State vs. ULM
- Camping World (Orlando): Syracuse vs. Iowa State
- Music City (Nashville): NC State vs. Missouri
- Texas (Houston): TCU vs. Mississippi State
- Pinstripe (New York City): Pitt vs. Minnesota
- Independence (Shreveport, LA): Duke vs. Arkansas State*
- Cheez-It (Phoenix): Baylor vs. Stanford
- Quick Lane (Detroit): Wake Forest vs. Purdue
- SERVPRO (Dallas): BYU* vs. North Texas
- Redbox (Santa Clara, CA): Wisconsin vs. Oregon
- Hawaii: Louisiana Tech vs. Hawaii
- Dollar General (Mobile): Buffalo vs. Georgia Southern
- Armed Forces (Fort Worth): Army* vs. Nevada*
- Birmingham: Houston vs. UAB*
- Potato (Boise): NIU vs. Utah State*
- Bahamas: FIU vs. Toledo
- Gasparilla (Tampa): USF vs. Miami
- Frisco (TX): Tulane vs. Ohio
- Boca Raton: Memphis vs. MTSU
- New Orleans: Southern Miss vs. Appalachian State
- Camellia (Montgomery, AL): WMU vs. Troy
- Las Vegas: Fresno State vs. Cal
- Cure (Orlando): Temple vs. UL Lafayette
- New Mexico (Albuquerque): Marshall vs. Boise State
* = Taking another conference’s unfilled bid.
We officially have too many bowl-eligible teams. I can’t find spots for EMU, Miami (Ohio), or Wyoming, and that’s before Virginia Tech potentially takes a spot by beating Marshall next week.
As always, remember bowl bids are not strictly based on merit. A few conferences have rules that prevent bowls from taking teams with clearly lesser records over more deserving teams, but bowls mostly care about butts in seats. If you beat a bigger program that’s closer to a bowl both of you want, you’re not guaranteed to get it.
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