5 College Football Playoff ranking predictions and one request: Rank Purdue

We have just four more Playoff committee top 25 reveals before Selection Sunday. College football is almost gone, y’all. After a Week 10 that continued 2018’s trend of maintaining order at the top as everything below the surface goes haywire, let’s look ahead to the committee’s second update of the season.

Bama (1) and Clemson (2) are a full stride ahead of anybody else. Moving on.

Maybe. While Auburn-Washington appeared to be the thing of substance and the South Bend game was all glitz for the cameras, it turns out no one knows anything. Notre Dame will be No. 3, and I think Michigan will be No. 4 ahead of Georgia (5), due to Michigan not suffering a blowout loss to a team that has itself been blown out.

(I do think Michigan can jump Notre Dame on Selection Sunday, but this has been my most unpopular opinion for several weeks now.

Should Oklahoma (6), which didn’t have to play Alabama, rank ahead of LSU, which had to play Alabama? LSU’s schedule has been undeniably harder, but S&P+ would take the Sooners by 13 points on a neutral field. Some are calling for West Virginia (7) to rank ahead of OU, via common results against Texas, but, um, check their common results against Iowa State.

Meanwhile, LSU (8) had a real bad loss, but how many teams from No. 9 on out would’ve definitely come within four touchdowns of the Tide, now that it’s established even historic betting spreads are mere hurdles for Bama to hop over?

The committee doesn’t really think in terms like this, but previous No. 9 Washington State (9) deserves to fall for goofing around against Cal. The thing is, who’d deserve to jump up? Shouldn’t Ohio State (10) fall for goofing around against Nebraska? And how far can Kentucky (11) fall for losing badly at home?

UCF (12) staying behind multiple two-loss teams would draw comparisons to 2017, but stop it. UCF is simply not as good as last year, and squeaking out a late cover over a Temple that lost to Villanova (and then improved) shouldn’t move the needle. I thought UCF was lucky to start 12th this year and would be lucky to stay 10 spots ahead of Fresno State.

A big secret of ranking college football teams: it’s all a big jumble once you get into the mid teens. Go ahead and give it a shot. Come up with the perfect list of 25 teams that few reasonable people could find fault with.

And that’s even more true this year than usual. For example, in last year’s AP Poll at this time, we had three three-loss teams. This year, we have seven.

The numbers (I like to use a pile of S&P+, CPI, Strength of Record, the AP Poll, and the Massey Composite) say two-loss Syracuse should rank next. Syracuse has beaten NC State and [file not found]. Cuse will probably be in the top 15 (!!), but that’s not exactly my point. There are just very few spots from 13 onward that deserve a lot of emotion right now.

Mississippi State, NC State, Penn State, Florida, Washington, Fresno State, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Boston College, Michigan State, Texas, Auburn, Utah, Iowa, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Army, Duke, South Carolina, and [other]? Sure bro, and in whichever order you want (13-24).

Not UAB, though that’s a cool story. And not Utah State, though S&P+ finds the Aggies worthy of the No. 14 AP spot.

Rank 5-4 Purdue (25).

The committee’s never ranked a four-loss team this early in the season before, but nothing would fit 2018’s madness better.

The Boilermakers have beaten an Ohio State that’ll probably rank in the top 10, a top-20 Boston College hosting GameDay, and a ranked Iowa. Three of their losses came despite S&P+ looking at the box scores and deciding Purdue should’ve likely won, and three came against teams that are either ranked (Michigan State) or could be by season’s end (Northwestern and Missouri).

How the Boilers have looked on the field has earned them No. 25 in S&P+. I think that’s where the committee should put them as well.