How Oklahoma got Red River Revenge

The worst thing about a rivalry loss is the wait. You’ve got all the bitter feelings, all the regrets, and you have to wait another 52 weeks or so to atone.

Oklahoma only had to wait eight weeks this time, though. After a 48-45 loss to Texas in the Cotton Bowl on October 6, the Sooners got back at the Horns by winning, 39-27, in the first Red River Rivalry Rematch in more than 100 years. They won their fourth consecutive conference title and avenged their only loss of the season.

The next 44 weeks until Red River 2019 should go by a little more easily this time.

What happened differently this time around? What allowed the Sooners to do what they couldn’t in October?

Texas’ offense wasn’t nearly as dynamic as OU’s this year, but the Longhorns had the benefit of going against OU’s wayward defense. In the Cotton Bowl, that meant scoring on all four of their first-half possessions and three of their first four in the second half as well. They scored 45 points in three quarters and forced OU’s offense to be perfect to keep up.

The Sooner defense wasn’t dominant on Saturday by any means. Texas averaged 6.3 yards per play (nearly a yard better than its season average of 5.5), and just as they did in October, Longhorn receivers Collin Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey had big games, combining for 15 catches and 228 yards.

Still, the Sooner D cleared its low bar. UT again began the game with an easy 75-yard touchdown drive, but the Horns scored only once in their other four first-half drives. And after some initial success in the second half, they were held scoreless on their final three possessions, too.

That, plus a safety by OU’s defense, created some margin for error for the Sooner offense. It only needs a little.

The first time around, UT logged a plus-3 turnover margin including a desperation turnover on the final play of the game. It allowed the Horns to overcome quite a few statistical disadvantages.

Texas managed to squeeze out a victory despite the following in-game stats:

* Total yards: OU 532, UT 501

* Yards per play: OU 9.2, UT 6.7

* Success rate: OU 61 percent, UT 50 percent

* Points per scoring opportunity (first downs inside the opp’s 40): OU 6.4, UT 6.0

It’s almost impossible to overcome that statistical disadvantage; my S&P+ post-game win expectancy measure (which takes the key, predictive stats from a given game and says “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X percent of the time”) had Texas at 9 percent. This combination of stats would have usually produced about a 13-point Sooner win.

Texas had a pretty good natural recipe for beating the Sooners: control the ball, create and convert manageable third downs, and create just a couple of breaks. It seemed the Longhorns had gotten such a break when, at the end of an otherwise gorgeous 54-yard catch and run by OU’s CeeDee Lamb, Gary Johnson stripped the sophomore of the ball at the UT 10 and Brandon Jones recovered it at the 8.

It was the first turnover of the game, and down just three with nine minutes remaining, Texas had the chance to grind out a long drive and potentially either tie late or take the lead.

Instead, the OU defense turned opportunistic for the first time in weeks. On just the second play after Lamb’s fumble, Tre Brown sacked Sam Ehlinger for a safety on the most perfect cornerback blitz you’ll ever see. Then, on UT’s final possession after a Sooner touchdown, OU evened the turnover battle with a Tre Norwood interception.

Against the ridiculous Sooner offense, UT needed to create extra possessions for itself like it did the first time around. The Horns could not.

Oregon did it in 2014, whomping Arizona by 38 after losing in the regular season, and Georgia did it in 2017, destroying Auburn a few weeks after losing on The Plains.

This game was in no way a blowout like those, but it might have served the same purpose.