Oddsmakers expect a game involving Alabama to be the highest-scoring game of bowl season. The Bama-Oklahoma Orange Bowl’s over/under opened at 79 points on Selection Sunday and has since crept as high as 81.5. Of this year’s other bowls, only the 74 in the Missouri-Oklahoma State Liberty Bowl and Memphis-Wake Forest Birmingham Bowl come anywhere close.
Orange Bowl has highest Vegas total of any Bama game ever (and might blow past it)
Vegas gives Alabama-Oklahoma the highest points over/under of any Playoff game ever and any bowl this season.
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
It’s not just being treated as the biggest points-fest this bowl season. It’s being treated as the biggest points-fest in Bama history.
The Tide haven’t participated in a game with a total this high since at least 1995, according to Odds Shark’s database, and totals in the 80s just didn’t happen before the last decade or so, so it’s safe to say this is the highest Vegas over/under in any Bama game ever. Bama’s second highest ever was 73.5 against Missouri this season, per Odds Shark.
Bama’s recently been a historically large favorite (and covered anyway), but the totals for Bama games aren’t that big, because the Tide are supposed to run the ball a lot and not give up many points.
It’s the biggest total in the five-year history of the Playoff, too, easily clearing the 74 for the first Playoff game ever: the Oregon-Florida State Rose Bowl after the 2014 season.
There are a few reasons they might hit that huge total, too.
1. For starters, Oklahoma and Bama have routinely hit overs this year.
The over is 11-2 in Sooners games and 8-4-1 in Tide games.
The Sooners took part in games that beat totals of 80 and 86 comfortably in November, though they did miss 80 in their Big 12 Championship win over Texas.
A Tide game hasn’t beaten a total bigger than 63 all year, but the Tide have not played an offense even close to OU’s caliber.
2. These are the two best offenses in college football, and — despite Bama’s usual reputation — both air it out.
OU is No. 1 in Offensive S&P+, and Bama is No. 2. The quarterbacks just battled out the most compelling Heisman race in at least nine years. Both teams have strong running games, but expect a lot of throws that keep drives moving quickly.
3. Oklahoma’s defense is involved.
The Sooners, No. 89 in Defensive S&P+, are the second-worst defensive team to ever qualify for the Playoff.* Things have not improved much since the team fired coordinator Mike Stoops at midseason. Alabama players will spend lots of time frolicking in the open field.
*The one Playoff team that’s been worse on defense: 2017 Oklahoma, which lost the Rose Bowl to Georgia, 54-48.
4. Alabama’s defense is great, but it’s not quite an Alabama defense.
By that, I mean it’s not the best defense in the country. It’s arguably not even in the top five. The Tide are No. 8 in Defensive S&P+ and have looked somewhat vulnerable in two or three games. If you can give up 31 to Arkansas, you’re certainly capable of giving up more to Oklahoma, and a lesser OU did score 45 against Nick Saban’s Tide a few years ago.
S&P+ has this game falling about a touchdown short of the total, and that’s even before accounting for Tagovailoa’s recent medical issues.
The projected score there: Alabama 40, Oklahoma 33. S&P+ hits on 51.5 percent of its over/under projections for the season, a bit behind its 53.2 percent spread success.
So, no guarantees.
But if there were ever a Tide or Playoff game worthy of such an eye-popping over/under, it was this one.
It doesn’t take much imagination at all to see both teams clearing 40 and busting this total in the third quarter.
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