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Come Fan with UsTuesday, August 4, 2026

Bama and Clemson are double-digit Vegas favorites in the Playoff semifinals

S&P+ says the matchups are closer than that, however.

NCAA Football: SEC Championship-Alabama vs Georgia
NCAA Football: SEC Championship-Alabama vs Georgia
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

2018’s College Football Playoff field is set, and so are opening lines for both semifinals.

  • No. 1 Alabama opened as a 14-point favorite against No. 4 Oklahoma.
  • No. 2 Clemson opened as an 11.5-point favorite against No. 3 Notre Dame.

Those odds are via the Westgate Las Vegas’ SuperBook USA. Meanwhile, William Hill set Alabama as a 13.5-point favorite and Clemson as an 11-point favorite.

So it’s safe to say both the Tide are double-digit favorites. A fourth Playoff meeting in four years between the two powers has long looked likely, never more than now.

As you’d expect, Bama’s the clear favorite to win the whole thing, followed by Clemson, Oklahoma, and ND. The latter two are in a different order than the committee’s rankings.

The S&P+ computer system projects closer margins in both games, though.

That model, created and operated by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly, regularly outperforms the Vegas spread in picking game results. And it says Alabama is about 7.5 points better than Oklahoma on a neutral field, while Clemson is about 7 better than Notre Dame.

Both Playoff semifinals, of course, will be played on neutral fields. Bama and Oklahoma will play in the Orange Bowl in Miami, and Clemson and ND will meet in the Cotton Bowl in North Texas. The national title game is at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., and S&P+ says now that Bama would be about a 2-point favorite in a meeting with Clemson.

The totals predict a lot of points in Bama-Oklahoma and less in Clemson-ND.

  • The over/under for Bama-OU: 79.5
  • The over/under for Clemson-ND: 55.5

It’s worth noting that 11 of 13 Oklahoma games this year have hit the total.

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