The rest of football has caught up to Chip Kelly’s ideas, but he can still evolve at UCLA

Chip Kelly was the most sought-after name on the market in this last silly season. On opposite ends of the country, the Gators and Bruins contended, with UCLA ultimately giving Kelly broad leeway in how he structures the program.

While Kelly’s approach has always been about far more than just his offense, focus will remain on his playbook. It was once cutting edge in the college game but has since become so common in football, elements of it are now all over the NFL from which he returns.

Are there any advantages left to be had from adopting the Kelly offense?

His last game as a college coach was the 2013 Fiesta Bowl against Kansas State. This was the best second-era Snyder team, due to a talented defense and Heisman finalist QB Collin “Optimus” Klein’s run-heavy offense.

That game was a glimpse into the future of college football. Both teams made heavy use of run/pass options and spread-option tactics, and Kansas State aimed to address Kelly’s tricky offense with a 4-2-5 quarters defense with a simplicity that was likewise cutting edge, in its own fashion:

Oregon makes a late flip of the RB from one side of the set to the other. K-State knows that’s meant to allow freshman QB Marcus Mariota to read whether to hand off or throw, based on whether the nickel will cover the bubble screen. So the nickel stays home and prevents the easy yardage on a screen to De’Anthony Thomas. Oregon also sends the TE up the seam, which could have resulted in free yardage, but SS Ty Zimmerman matches that route.

Then the Wildcats split their coverage and bring a corner blitz on the other side, which eventually allows the unblocked DE to prevent a QB keeper on the zone read component and make the tackle in the cutback lane. There were a lot of options for K-State to match, and they did so here.

In the end, a special teams score, K-State turnovers, and Oregon’s athleticism proved too much. The Ducks probably sealed the game on a one-minute drive before the half that made it 24-10 thanks to this play:

K-State had just given up a gain on the TE pop pass and barely managed to line up, only to lose RB Kenjon Barner in the flat.

Kelly’s offense was nearing completion with its use of hybrids at TE and H-back, fast tempo, simple language and concepts, and fully modern QB run and pass options. He handed off a talented and fairly young unit to Mark Helfrich and departed for the NFL.

The main problem for Kelly’s offense was its emphasis on simplicity and tempo. Oregon generated a lot of yardage simply by confusing opponents and finding unoccupied rushing gaps, uncovered receivers, and other free space. Kansas State demonstrated some ways to check it all and avoid giving away freebies.

Professional defenders with extra time and ability to memorize Kelly’s concepts and the absence of QB rushing options to worry about eventually shut this down, given time and practice.

Kelly’s counter-adjustments focused around the same tactics as other NFL teams, introducing West Coast concepts and looking to execute the passing game at a high level. He popularized a version of “mesh” that has taken off in college and is the foundation of Ohio State’s passing game.

The guiding philosophy of Kelly’s offense just didn’t quite translate. That philosophy was to run, do so by mastering a few core blocking schemes, and protect them with multiple formations, motions, pace, and pass options. NFL defenders could recognize the schemes and focus on beating predictable blocks. Typically, blockers are outmatched in a foot race and depend on strength and favorable angles created by knowing where to be before defenders do. Take away that advantage, and the defense’s athleticism can shine through.

The proven method for winning at the higher level is the passing game, where the perfect pass is harder to defend than the perfect block, and under-center, double-team run schemes featuring star running backs.

This isn’t to say lessons from college offense can’t work in the NFL. They worked all 2017 long, including in the Super Bowl. You just have to take the right lessons. Winning via confusion is not as strong a plan when the other players are literally pros at watching film.

UCLA should provide the right talent for Kelly and has been recruiting a level comparable to Kelly’s Oregon (top 20 nationally, top four in the Pac-12). Kelly’s advanced approach to strength and conditioning could make up the difference and perhaps put his teams over the top if he ends up recruiting at a top-10 level.

The question is whether or not his system still provides an advantage in attacking defenses. His protege Scott Frost has evolved the offense, attacking with more than pace and options. Does Kelly have more innovation within him? How will the Bruins handle more teams applying a K-State approach of simplifying and taking away the freebies?

The area where Kelly could continue to evolve is the same he was forced toward at the NFL level: the passing game. UCLA is smack dab in the middle of quarterback country. California is littered with private QB coaches. 247Sports’ player rankings reveal the state produces roughly five blue-chip QBs per year.

What if Kelly’s offense included menus for the QB to determine whether to call one of a few basic RPOs or a few basic passing concepts, all based on what he saw at the line of scrimmage? How well might college defenses adjust to a Kelly offense that includes more passing concepts and methods for creating matchups for the speedy hybrids, TEs, and WRs he’ll soon be cycling through in Los Angeles?

As the Eagles are still demonstrating in the NFL, RPOs are excellent for evening out the numbers in the box by holding DBs with the threat of routes and forcing them to play man coverage:

And then concepts like mesh are great for getting speedy athletes free into space against that man coverage:

If this stuff works in the NFL, once complexity is sprinkled in, you can bet that even if it’s no longer unique at the college level, it’s still not easy to stop.

The pros figured out Kelly and spat him back down to the college ranks. But if it made him stronger and more diverse in his knowledge of the modern passing game, then college defenses might soon wish he was still the NFL’s problem.