Mississippi State’s offense might’ve fixed one big weakness, but there’s still one to go

Heading into 2018, one of the teams I was most intrigued by was Mississippi State. There were some obvious reasons — new head coach Joe Moorhead is a fascinating offensive coach, outgoing coach Dan Mullen left for Moorhead one of the best defensive lines in the country, etc.

There was also a contrast I was curious about, as I wrote in MSU’s 2018 preview.

Whether Moorhead can engineer something better than “very good” will depend on whether he can bring the big plays back.

In 2016, Moorhead’s first season as Penn State coordinator, the Nittany Lions produced 48 gains of 30-plus yards, third in FBS. In 2017, with opponents taking the big shots away, they still produced 34 (31st) while significantly improving their efficiency.

MSU, on the other hand, managed just 20 plays of 30-plus yards last year (98th). Efficiency is a great thing, maybe the most important thing, and an efficient team is a steady team — after all, MSU did go 9-4 with almost no big plays — but big plays create easy points.

Two games into 2018, the Bulldogs have nine plays of 30-plus yards, fifth in FBS, and while five came in a blowout of Stephen F. Austin, another four came in Saturday’s remarkably easy 31-10 win at Kansas State. In Manhattan, running back Kylin Hill had gains of 52, 47, 28, 18, 16, and 16 on his way to 211 rushing yards, and in quarterback Nick Fitzgerald’s first game of the season (he was suspended for the opener), the QB had 19 carries for 159.

That’s rather terrifying, if you think about it. The Bulldogs have 94 points in two games and have completed only 26 of 61 passes. Fitzgerald was 11-for-27 for 154 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on Saturday. That’s a paltry passer rating of 105.7. He missed a few open shots downfield in Manhattan, and his receivers suffered a few early drops. They won easily, but they left some points on the board.

It’s early, and these numbers are unsustainable over a full season, but six teams have recorded 60 percent success rates in non-garbage time snaps so far in 2018:

(The terms of “success:” gaining 50 percent of the yardage toward a conversion on first down, 70 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third or fourth down.)

So MSU is in rarefied efficiency air even with the passing struggles. But you have to wonder about the one-dimensionality here. Let’s break these teams’ success rates out by run and pass:

That’s quite the difference. MSU is making Wisconsin look balanced.

Though these teams will all see a little bit of regression to the mean, success rate is far more predictable and stable than big-play measures, field position, or any other primary stats. If the six teams above finished the season as the top six in offensive efficiency, it wouldn’t be particularly surprising.

You have to wonder about that contrast, though.

Moorhead’s got two good rushing quarterbacks (going back to 2017, Keytaon Thompson had a pretty good three-game streak in Fitzgerald’s absence), Hill is developing quickly, the line is solid, and MSU has a track record of run efficiency. The Bulldogs are going to keep running well.

They’re not going to keep producing a run success rate in the 80s, though — no one does. After a Week 3 tune-up against UL-Lafayette, the Bulldogs will begin conference play, and Fitzgerald is going to have to hit some of the passes he missed on Saturday, if the Bulldogs are going to continue playing at their current high level. Moorhead probably knows that as well as anyone, and I’m curious about the solutions he attempts.

NIU has begun playing just about the least MAC-worthy football imaginable. The Huskies held two power conference opponents — Iowa and Utah — to just 4.9 overall yards per play and six total first-half points. Defensive end Sutton Smith has recorded 5.5 tackles for loss (that’s a 30-TFL pace), and four other linemen have at least one TFL.

One problem: the Huskies can’t score.

While first downs have been pretty similar — 30 for NIU, 37 for opponents — points have not, and NIU has been outscored 50-13. Quarterback Marcus Childers has produced an 85.2 passer rating, and the Huskies are averaging 1.6 points per scoring opportunity (first downs inside the opponent’s 40), about one-third the national average. Finishing drives at a merely average rate would have put NIU in position for two upsets. The defense deserves better.

Two receivers have stood out from the national pack — one somewhat expected, one less so.

Missouri’s Emanuel Hall has begun 2018 right where he left off, reeling in 14 of 17 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns in easy wins over UT Martin and Wyoming. Hall averaged 24.8 yards per catch over 33 receptions in 2017, and my biggest fear when Derek Dooley took over as offensive coordinator was that, in attempt to work more “pro-style” concepts into the mix, the Tigers would forget what they’re good at. So far this year: 24.4 yards per catch.

Colorado sophomore Laviska Shenault Jr., on the other hand? The sophomore from DeSoto, Texas, had seven catches for 168 yards during his debut campaign last fall; he had 11 for 211 in his first game of 2018, a blowout of Colorado State. Then he went to Lincoln and caught 10 more for 177 in the Buffaloes’ 33-28 win over old rival Nebraska.

Your receiving yardage leaders in 2018 are Hawaii’s John Ursua (423 yards) and Colorado State’s Preston Williams (391), both of whom have played three games. Shenault (388) and Hall (342) have nearly caught them in two.

After exploding for 1,091 yards (6.4 per carry) in 11 games as a freshman in 2016, Kentucky’s Benny Snell Jr. struggled a bit to start 2017 — seven games in, he was averaging just 4.1 yards per carry.

Snell and his line have established the rapport they didn’t have this time last year. He had 125 yards in a slow-starting win over Central Michigan, then he blazed for 175 yards in 27 carries in UK’s first win over Florida in over three decades.

Four and a half years ago, Cortez Broughton of Kathleen, Ga., was a recruiting afterthought. A mid-two-star prospect, he was committed to Middle Tennessee before flipping to Tommy Tuberville and Cincinnati.

He was turning into a solid contributor before Tuberville’s retirement, and in Luke Fickell’s first season, he wasn’t particularly productive. Broughton recorded just 4.5 total havoc plays (tackles for loss, passes defensed, forced fumbles) in 12 games in 2017.

He has 7.5 in two games this year: 5.5 TFLs, a pass breakup, and a forced fumble. He was dominant in the Bearcats’ 26-17 upset of UCLA (3.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks), and he followed that performance up with four havoc plays in a 21-0 win over Miami (Ohio) on Saturday. Late-blooming studs are still studs, right?

Midway through Texas A&M’s near-upset of Clemson, I got a text from a friend that simply said “They can’t block Clemson.” The Aggies trailed 14-3 despite a massive time of possession advantage. A&M running backs had just 26 yards in 14 carries, and quarterback Kellen Mond was 7-for-17 for 97 yards. Yards per pass attempt, including sacks: 5.2.

The Aggies never really figured out how to run against Clemson’s otherworldly front, but that was fine — Mond took over instead. He completed 16 of 23 passes in the second half for 333 and three touchdowns, and the Aggies came within a controversial fumble and/or a two-point conversion from a late tie. Yards per pass attempt for Mond after halftime: 12.9.

Mond was a mid-four-star prospect who showed quite a few glimpses early in his true freshman season before losing his job to Nick Starkel.

It’s early, and plenty more challenges await — namely, a Week 4 trip to Alabama — but Mond just set the bar awfully high for his sophomore season, and the ceiling for Jimbo Fisher’s first season at A&M just got a little bit higher.