Spread picks for every college football game in 2018’s Week 3

Below are FBS picks and projections using the S&P+ projections, listed in full for all 130 FBS teams here. See the bottom of the post for more detail about these.

The spread (listed in parentheses) is shown next to S&P+’s pick for each game. The team in bold is projected to beat the spread. (At most books, there is no listed spread for FCS games.) When S&P+ predicts a tie or a push (a tie with Vegas, basically), I list the pick on the side S&P+ would pick if teams could score in decimals.

This document breaks games (and S&P+’s season performance to date) out into their decimal glory. This year, I am including and monitoring total (over/under) picks as well.

Finally some real competition for Boston College. The Eagles beat UMass and Holy Cross by a combined 117-35, but Wake is a few rungs up the ladder. Note the weird, weather-related kickoff time.

Memphis suffered the least likely loss of the season at Navy last weekend. The Tigers’ postgame win probability — in which I basically throw all the key stats from a game up into the air and produce a figure that says, “Based on these stats, you could have expected to win this game X percent of the time — was 98 percent. They dominated everywhere but the most important place, losing 22-21. That probably will not happen again on Friday.

Like BC, Ohio State has dominated inferior competition so far this year. Unlike BC, Ohio State already had a track record.

Notre Dame has bailed itself out with big plays so far, but the one-dimensional Irish offense could find itself laboring against a Vandy defense that hasn’t allowed many big plays thus far. If Vandy can turn this game into a slog, there is upset potential here.

Drew Lock and the Mizzou offense carved up UT Martin and Wyoming. What can they do against a frustrated Purdue defense that stops the run but has struggled to stop the pass?

Arkansas’ season outlook changed quite a bit when the Hogs blew a late lead at Colorado State. Can they rebound against a North Texas that has thus far looked like the class of Conference USA?

Man, if Khalil Tate (probable after suffering an ankle injury against Houston) and the Arizona offense don’t get untracked this week, it may not happen this year.

Each year, I post weekly S&P+ picks as a way of affirming the ratings’ validity. I use my S&P+ system as a complement to most of my analysis, and the picks are a way of showing it generally knows what it’s talking about.

S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own.

And beyond picks, it goes deeper than any other set of college football analytics on the market. You can go into granular detail regarding team strengths and weaknesses in a way that no other set of ratings allows. (See the annual team statistical profiles as proof.)