College Football

2018’s updated 130-team S&P+ rankings, plus win projections and strength of schedule

Your three most likely 12-0 teams: Clemson, Ohio State (with a big asterisk), and Washington.

Aug 24, 2018, 12:03 PM UTC

ACC Football Championship - Clemson v Miami

Clemson’s got the best FBS chance of reaching 12-0.

Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

The preseason S&P+ projections are a simple mix of three factors that’ve proved over time to be predictive going forward: recent history, returning production, and recruiting. To come up with 130-team projections, I create projected ratings based on each factor.

Here’s how the process works:

Recruiting is easy. I create a rating based on these two-year recruiting rankings. The recruiting-based projection makes up about a quarter of the overall S&P+ projection.
For returning production, I apply projected changes (based on each team’s returning offensive and defensive production, which are on different scales) to last year’s S&P+ averages. The projection based on returning production accounts for a little more than 50 percent.
For recent history, I get a little weird. I found last year that the previous year’s S&P+ ratings — which make up the starting point for the returning production figures — were carrying a little too much weight. So what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history now carries less weight in the overall formulas, under 20 percent.

Each offseason before the beginning of my team preview series, I post a preliminary set of S&P+ projections based on the above factors. Then, upon completion of the series in late-August, I update the projections based on transfers, injuries, dismissals, changes in recruiting rankings, etc. These are different from my own personal rankings, which are informed as much by writing the preview series as they are by S&P+.

Below are the most updated possible S&P+ ratings based on personnel changes as I know them.

The rankings going to be similar to February’s for most teams, but a few have changed based on offseason moves.

2018 S&P+ projections (as of August 23)

Team	Proj. S&P+	Rank	Proj. Off. S&P+	Rank	Proj. Def. S&P+	Rank
Ohio State	27.1	1	43.8	2	16.7	8
Clemson	25	2	34.4	26	9.4	1
Alabama	24	3	39.4	10	15.4	6
Washington	23.5	4	37.3	15	13.8	4
Georgia	22.6	5	40.6	7	18	13
Auburn	22.1	6	36.7	18	14.6	5
Penn State	20.3	7	39.7	8	19.4	16
Oklahoma	19.6	8	50.3	1	30.7	83
Notre Dame	19.5	9	35.8	22	16.3	7
Michigan	19.2	10	31.2	45	11.9	2
Wisconsin	17.1	11	34.4	25	17.3	9
Miami-FL	17	12	34.9	23	17.9	12
Michigan State	16.2	13	29.7	54	13.5	3
Mississippi State	15.1	14	32.9	33	17.8	11
LSU	14.2	15	31.6	40	17.4	10
USC	13	16	36.3	20	23.3	37
Oklahoma State	12.9	17	41.8	4	28.9	68
Central Florida	12.6	18	43.7	3	31.1	87
Florida State	12.3	19	34.1	30	21.8	21
Stanford	12.1	20	39	12	26.9	53
Oregon	11.3	21	36.8	16	25.5	45
TCU	11.3	22	30.2	51	19	14
Texas A&M	10.8	23	33.8	31	22.9	31
Boise State	9.9	24	29.8	53	19.9	17
Utah	9.8	25	31.7	39	22	23
Louisville	9.2	26	41.3	5	32.1	97
Florida Atlantic	9.1	27	34.7	24	25.6	46
Ole Miss	9	28	40.9	6	31.9	95
South Carolina	8.9	29	31.1	46	22.2	28
Texas	8.4	30	29.4	59	20.9	19
Missouri	8	31	38.6	13	30.6	82
Arizona	8	32	39.5	9	31.5	91
Florida	7.8	33	28.8	62	21	20
Virginia Tech	7.7	34	29.7	55	21.9	22
Iowa	7.2	35	27.6	80	20.4	18
NC State	7.1	36	37.6	14	30.4	81
Northwestern	6.6	37	28.7	63	22.1	25
Duke	6.1	38	28.2	73	22.1	27
Memphis	6	39	39.1	11	33.1	104
Arkansas	5.2	40	34.3	28	29.2	71
Wake Forest	5.1	41	32.3	36	27.2	54
Fresno State	5	42	27	85	22	24
Toledo	4.9	43	33.6	32	28.6	65
Washington State	4.9	44	27	87	22.1	26
Iowa State	4.8	45	28.1	76	23.3	36
UCLA	4.7	46	36.8	17	32.1	96
Boston College	4.3	47	27.6	81	23.2	35
West Virginia	4.2	48	36.5	19	32.4	99
Indiana	3.9	49	27.8	79	23.8	38
Pittsburgh	3.4	50	28.1	75	24.8	41
Purdue	3.1	51	30.9	47	27.7	61
Arizona State	2.7	52	36.1	21	33.4	106
North Carolina	2.7	53	29.9	52	27.2	56
San Diego State	2.6	54	28.5	69	25.8	47
Texas Tech	2.5	55	29.3	60	26.8	52
Baylor	2.4	56	31.5	41	29.1	70
Marshall	2.3	57	24.7	96	22.4	29
South Florida	2.3	58	28.3	71	26.1	49
Appalachian State	2.3	59	27.3	82	25.1	42
Kansas State	2.1	60	32	37	29.9	78
Nebraska	2	61	30.8	48	28.8	66
Georgia Tech	1.8	62	31.9	38	30.2	80
Arkansas State	1.4	63	32.3	35	31	86
Kentucky	1.3	64	28.5	68	27.2	55
California	1.1	65	29.4	58	28.3	63
Northern Illinois	0.6	66	23.1	102	22.5	30
Ohio	0.5	67	31.4	43	30.9	85
Houston	0.3	68	25.8	90	25.5	44
Louisiana Tech	-0.2	69	28.7	64	28.9	69
Tennessee	-0.2	70	25.8	92	26	48
Maryland	-0.4	71	27.2	84	27.6	59
Virginia	-0.7	72	22.4	106	23.1	34
SMU	-0.7	73	34.2	29	34.9	111
Troy	-0.9	74	23.8	99	24.8	40
Wyoming	-1	75	18.3	122	19.4	15
Minnesota	-1.2	76	21.7	111	23	32
BYU	-1.3	77	21.8	110	23.1	33
Utah State	-1.3	78	26	89	27.4	57
Vanderbilt	-1.4	79	28.3	70	29.8	77
Syracuse	-2	80	30.3	50	32.3	98
Temple	-2.1	81	23.4	100	25.4	43
Miami-OH	-3	82	24.5	98	27.5	58
Army	-3.1	83	28.3	72	31.4	90
Colorado	-3.4	84	27.9	77	31.3	89
North Texas	-3.6	85	32.8	34	36.4	116
Navy	-3.7	86	29.4	57	33.1	105
Middle Tennessee	-4	87	25.2	95	29.2	72
Western Michigan	-4.1	88	28.7	67	32.7	101
Cincinnati	-4.4	89	26.9	88	31.3	88
Colorado State	-4.7	90	29.5	56	34.2	108
Buffalo	-5.1	91	27.9	78	33	103
Western Kentucky	-6	92	23.3	101	29.3	75
UAB	-6.4	93	25.2	94	31.6	92
Rutgers	-6.6	94	19.5	118	26.1	50
Massachusetts	-6.8	95	27.3	83	34.1	107
Tulane	-6.9	96	31.5	42	38.4	121
Eastern Michigan	-6.9	97	19.3	120	26.2	51
New Mexico State	-7.3	98	22.6	105	30	79
Southern Miss	-7.6	99	21.2	114	28.9	67
Illinois	-7.7	100	21.6	112	29.3	73
UTSA	-7.9	101	16.6	128	24.5	39
Georgia Southern	-8.4	102	19.4	119	27.8	62
Kansas	-8.5	103	19.9	116	28.5	64
UNLV	-8.7	104	28.7	65	37.4	118
Tulsa	-8.9	105	31.2	44	40.1	126
South Alabama	-9.6	106	21.2	113	30.8	84
Nevada	-9.7	107	28.7	66	38.4	122
UL-Monroe	-9.8	108	34.4	27	44.2	128
Bowling Green	-9.9	109	24.6	97	34.6	110
New Mexico	-10.1	110	22.8	104	32.9	102
Air Force	-10.6	111	28.9	61	39.5	123
Old Dominion	-10.8	112	18.6	121	29.4	76
Georgia State	-10.8	113	20.8	115	31.6	93
Florida International	-10.9	114	25.5	93	36.4	117
Central Michigan	-11.2	115	18.1	124	29.3	74
Oregon State	-11.9	116	25.8	91	37.6	119
Coastal Carolina	-12.2	117	22.9	103	35.1	113
Akron	-12.4	118	15.3	129	27.7	60
Ball State	-12.8	119	22.2	108	35	112
UL-Lafayette	-13.3	120	30.6	49	43.9	127
Liberty	-13.7	121	22.2	109	35.9	115
Kent State	-15.2	122	16.7	127	31.9	94
Charlotte	-15.4	123	17.3	126	32.7	100
Texas State	-16.8	124	17.7	125	34.5	109
Connecticut	-17	125	28.2	74	45.1	130
East Carolina	-17.2	126	27	86	44.2	129
Rice	-17.5	127	22.3	107	39.8	125
San Jose State	-18.8	128	19.6	117	38.3	120
Hawaii	-21.3	129	18.3	123	39.6	124
UTEP	-21.3	130	14.2	130	35.5	114

Note: Ohio State is projected No. 1, but these projections are not designed to take coaching changes, suspensions, or other unusual coaching arrangements into account. On paper, the Buckeyes have the best roster heading in, even if their overall situation is complicated.

Based on player injuries, transfers, or players returning from injury — in which case I add their stats from their most recent seasons —a lot of teams moved slightly up or down since the initial rankings. (And sometimes human error is involved: Alabama moved from second to third here because I hadn’t initially accounted for all of their NFL defections on defense.)

Some teams moved a lot, though, and we should talk about them.

Virginia Tech (down 13 spots, from 21st to 34th). The Hokies had a horrid offseason, losing a couple of key defenders in corner Adonis Alexander (grades) and safety Mook Reynolds (dismissal). Losing an extra mass of production from the secondary, where lost production is more statistically correlated to regression, meant a tumble for Justin Fuente’s squad.
Bowling Green (down 12 spots, from 97th to 109th). Attrition was costly for Mike Jinks’ Falcons, who either lost or dismissed receivers Datrin Guyton, Janarvis Pough, and Matthew Wilcox Jr., and defenders David Konowalski, Armani Posey, and Dirion Hutchins.
Rutgers (down 10 spots, from 84th to 94th). This drop stemmed mostly from the dismissal of star safety K.J. Gray. Are you catching a theme?
Arkansas (up 12 spots, from 52nd to 40th). Bringing back 2016 star receiver Jared Cornelius from injury and adding Kansas transfer Chase Harrell did wonders for the Razorbacks’ offensive projections.

In the cases of Rutgers and Arkansas, those might not seem like huge personnel changes to dictate a double-digit rise or fall in the rankings. But remember how closely the teams in those ranges are bunched together. Only about 2.5 points separate the No. 52 team from the No. 40 team, and only 2.8 separate No. 84 from No. 94.

So those are the rankings. How might teams’ seasons play out?

Below, you will find the following information:

Each team’s average win probability.
Its projected strength of schedule ranking, which is derived simply from looking at the average projected S&P+ rating of each opponent. This being college football, the difference is pretty massive — Michigan is No. 1 in SOS, with an average opponent ranking of plus-9.5 adjusted points per game, while NMSU is 130th, with an average opponent ranking of minus-9.5. Nearly three touchdowns per game separate the strongest and weakest schedules in this silly sport. (Once we have actual results to discuss, we’ll have a different, cooler way to talk about SOS and résumés. This is just setting a baseline.)
The team’s average win probability for conference games. (You can sort by conference to compare and contrast there.)
The team’s projected strength of schedule ranking based solely on conference games.

Here are the final projected win expectations for 2018, based on S&P+ rankings.

2018 college football win projections

Team	Conf	Avg. Wins	SOS Rank	Avg. Conf. Wins
Ohio State	Big Ten	10.4	37	7.6
Clemson	ACC	10.5	47	6.9
Alabama	SEC	9.9	28	6.2
Washington	Pac-12	10.1	51	7.6
Georgia	SEC	10.1	54	6.2
Auburn	SEC	8.9	19	5.5
Penn State	Big Ten	9.2	15	6.5
Oklahoma	Big 12	9.7	35	7.1
Notre Dame	Ind	9.3	25	N/A
Michigan	Big Ten	8.4	1	6.2
Wisconsin	Big Ten	9.2	59	6.5
Miami-FL	ACC	9.3	65	6.1
Michigan State	Big Ten	8.5	16	5.9
Mississippi State	SEC	8.1	20	4.6
LSU	SEC	7.2	4	3.9
USC	Pac-12	8.1	34	6.2
Oklahoma State	Big 12	8.4	55	5.9
Central Florida	AAC	9.6	85	6.5
Florida State	ACC	7.2	3	4.5
Stanford	Pac-12	7.4	14	5.4
Oregon	Pac-12	8.3	66	5.4
TCU	Big 12	7.5	33	5.7
Texas A&M	SEC	6.7	9	3.7
Boise State	MWC	9	73	6.2
Utah	Pac-12	7	13	4.7
Louisville	ACC	7.3	36	4.5
Florida Atlantic	C-USA	8.8	89	6.3
Ole Miss	SEC	6.8	24	3.4
South Carolina	SEC	7	27	4.3
Texas	Big 12	7.1	32	5
Missouri	SEC	6.8	21	4
Arizona	Pac-12	7.7	64	5.4
Florida	SEC	6.9	42	3.9
Virginia Tech	ACC	7.4	63	4.3
Iowa	Big Ten	7.1	44	4.9
NC State	ACC	7	41	4.1
Northwestern	Big Ten	6.4	17	4.6
Duke	ACC	6.5	46	3.8
Memphis	AAC	8.8	110	5.7
Arkansas	SEC	6	22	2.8
Wake Forest	ACC	6.3	49	3.5
Fresno State	MWC	8.2	88	5.8
Toledo	MAC	8.7	117	6.1
Washington State	Pac-12	6.5	52	4.1
Iowa State	Big 12	6.2	31	4.3
UCLA	Pac-12	5.2	2	3.8
Boston College	ACC	5.9	38	3
West Virginia	Big 12	5.9	29	4.1
Indiana	Big Ten	6	18	3.7
Pittsburgh	ACC	5.3	8	3.8
Purdue	Big Ten	5.3	6	3.6
Arizona State	Pac-12	5.1	5	3.6
North Carolina	ACC	6.2	61	3.6
San Diego State	MWC	8	102	5.6
Texas Tech	Big 12	5.7	53	3.8
Baylor	Big 12	5.9	60	3.8
Marshall	C-USA	7.8	92	5.5
South Florida	AAC	8	101	5.2
Appalachian State	Sun Belt	8.5	122	5.8
Kansas State	Big 12	5.5	26	3.6
Nebraska	Big Ten	5.3	12	3.2
Georgia Tech	ACC	5.1	23	2.8
Arkansas State	Sun Belt	8.4	121	5.9
Kentucky	SEC	5.4	43	2.7
California	Pac-12	5.4	45	3.5
Northern Illinois	MAC	6.4	67	5.1
Ohio	MAC	8.1	123	5.4
Houston	AAC	7.3	107	4.7
Louisiana Tech	C-USA	7.1	90	5.2
Tennessee	SEC	5.4	57	2.2
Maryland	Big Ten	4.6	10	3.1
Virginia	ACC	5.2	56	2.7
SMU	AAC	6.3	72	4.4
Troy	Sun Belt	7.9	127	5.5
Wyoming	MWC	6.8	86	4.8
Minnesota	Big Ten	4.9	30	3.2
BYU	Ind	5.4	62	N/A
Utah State	MWC	7.3	113	5.1
Vanderbilt	SEC	4.9	39	2.5
Syracuse	ACC	4.7	48	2.3
Temple	AAC	6.6	84	4.4
Miami-OH	MAC	6.6	94	4.7
Army	Ind	7.4	125	N/A
Colorado	Pac-12	4.4	40	2.9
North Texas	C-USA	7.1	120	4.7
Navy	AAC	6.4	75	3.5
Middle Tennessee	C-USA	6.1	81	4.6
Western Michigan	MAC	6.3	97	4.1
Cincinnati	AAC	6.1	96	4
Colorado State	MWC	6.2	93	4.5
Buffalo	MAC	6.6	124	4.3
Western Kentucky	C-USA	5.7	82	4.1
UAB	C-USA	6.8	129	4.6
Rutgers	Big Ten	3.6	11	1.8
Massachusetts	Ind	6	98	N/A
Tulane	AAC	4.9	68	3.4
Eastern Michigan	MAC	5.8	103	4
New Mexico State	Ind	6.7	130	N/A
Southern Miss	C-USA	6	118	4.2
Illinois	Big Ten	3.8	58	2.2
UTSA	C-USA	5.5	100	4
Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	5.6	104	3.8
Kansas	Big 12	3.4	50	1.6
UNLV	MWC	6	119	3.9
Tulsa	AAC	4.3	69	3
South Alabama	Sun Belt	5.2	111	3.6
Nevada	MWC	5.2	106	3.4
UL-Monroe	Sun Belt	5.2	109	3.8
Bowling Green	MAC	4.7	87	3.3
New Mexico	MWC	4.4	79	2.5
Air Force	MWC	4	71	2.7
Old Dominion	C-USA	5.4	126	3.2
Georgia State	Sun Belt	4.8	95	3.4
Florida International	C-USA	4.9	108	3.2
Central Michigan	MAC	4.5	83	3.1
Oregon State	Pac-12	2.4	7	1.4
Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	4.8	116	3
Akron	MAC	4.3	99	3
Ball State	MAC	3.9	74	2.6
UL-Lafayette	Sun Belt	4.1	77	3
Liberty	Ind	4.6	115	N/A
Kent State	MAC	3.6	80	2.4
Charlotte	C-USA	3.6	91	2.3
Texas State	Sun Belt	4	128	2.2
Connecticut	AAC	3	76	1.7
East Carolina	AAC	2.7	70	1.6
Rice	C-USA	4.2	114	2.5
San Jose State	MWC	2.7	78	1.9
Hawaii	MWC	3	112	1.5
UTEP	C-USA	2.4	105	1.7

Your top 10 teams in terms of projected wins:

Clemson (10.5)
Ohio State (10.4)
Washington (10.1)
Georgia (10.1)
Alabama (9.9)
Oklahoma (9.7)
UCF (9.6)
Notre Dame (9.3)
Miami (9.3)
Wisconsin (9.2)

Win projections will appear a little conservative — if you’ve got a 60 percent chance of winning a game, you’re given only 0.6 projected wins for that week — but consider these teams the most likely to finish the year 12-0.

Your top three teams in each conference/division, per projected conference wins (in conferences with no divisions, I’ll list five):

AAC East: UCF (6.5), USF (5.2), Temple (4.4)
AAC West: Memphis (5.7), Houston (4.7), SMU (4.4)

Houston’s load of incoming transfers makes the Cougars’ offense a wildcard, but the two teams that finished 2017 on top begin 2018 the same way.

ACC Atlantic: Clemson (6.9), FSU (4.5), Louisville (4.5)
ACC Coastal: Miami (6.1), Virginia Tech (4.3), Duke (3.8)

Ditto the ACC, where Virginia Tech’s fall has made Miami nearly as comfortable a favorite in the Coastal as Clemson is in the Atlantic.

Big 12: Oklahoma (7.1), OSU (5.9), TCU (5.7), Texas (5.0), Iowa State (4.3)

Oklahoma is projected to slip from last year’s perch, but the Sooners have a long way to fall before someone else catches up.

Big Ten East: Ohio State (7.6), Penn State (6.5), Michigan (6.2)
Big Ten West: Wisconsin (6.5), Iowa (4.9), Northwestern (4.6)

If Ohio State regresses at all, PSU, UM, and Michigan State (5.9), are ready to pounce.

C-USA East: FAU (6.3), Marshall (5.5), MTSU (4.6)
C-USA West: Louisiana Tech (5.2), North Texas (4.7), UAB (4.6)

With FAU traveling to Marshall and MTSU, I guess we shouldn’t crown the Owls just yet. Meanwhile, with four teams projected within one game (Southern Miss is also at 4.2), the West could be a free-for-all.

MAC East: Ohio (5.4), Miami (Ohio) (4.7), Buffalo (4.3)
MAC West: Toledo (6.1), NIU (5.1), WMU (4.1)

Frank Solich and Ohio are never going to have a better shot at a conference title.

MWC Mountain: Boise State (6.2), Utah State (5.1), Wyoming (4.8)
MWC West: Fresno State (5.8), SDSU (5.6), UNLV (3.9)

A definitive two-team race in the West. And we’ll see if BSU’s trip to Wyoming muddies the waters in the Mountain division.

Pac-12 North: Washington (7.6), Stanford (5.4), Oregon (5.4)
Pac-12 South: USC (6.2), Arizona (5.4), Utah (4.7)

Only Clemson has a bigger projected division advantage than UW. And with USC potentially starting a freshman QB and Arizona breaking in a new head coach, the South is full of wild cards.

SEC East: Georgia (6.2), South Carolina (4.3), Missouri (4.0)
SEC West: Alabama (6.2), Auburn (5.5), Mississippi State (4.6)

No surprises here, I’m guessing.