The start of the NFL season has represented continued validation for college football fans, in the sense that college concepts that were derided as being too simple for sophisticated NFL defenses are, in fact, ascendant.
If Jeff Tedford can win again, then so can Chip Kelly
A whole lot happened since these two had met previously. What can we learn from that?
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
On the heels of the Eagles winning the Super Bowl with college plays (even discounting Cris Collinsworth’s tendency to view every play fake as an RPO), Patrick Mahomes leading an unstoppable Chiefs offense replete with Saturday staples, and even the Bears have an offense thanks to college mimicry:
The surprising aspect of the college invasion is that the general who was supposed to lead it is now an avatar for futility.
When Chip Kelly moved to the NFL, he was 50 years old and coming off a four-year stretch in which his offense ran roughshod through the West. In his time as the head coach in Eugene, his offenses got better each year, progressing from 28th in offensive S&P+ to 11th, seventh, and second. When he moved to the NFL, it was reasonable to expect great success, just as Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh had when they’d moved up from the Pac-10.
Instead, as Bill Connelly and Chris B. Brown showed, Kelly’s NFL tenure was marked by swiftly diminishing returns. Here is Connelly’s summary:
Defenses grew more sophisticated in handling tempo.
NFL officials don’t let you go as quickly as Kelly wanted.
Having the QB run is terrifying for a pro team that’s invested millions of dollars in the position. An injury could wreck your season even more than it could in college.
Without that run threat and with immobile QBs like Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford, Kelly’s play-calling was predictable.
And perhaps his preferred philosophy (which included the elements of what you might call an optimal college football offense) wasn’t as suited in a pro environment that features more adaptable coaching and fewer talent advantages. As the Washington Post’s Mark Maske noted, Kelly was given far too much control of personnel decisions in Philadelphia. GM Kelly perhaps screwed head coach Kelly out of success.
After being swept out of the NFL and spending a year on TV, Kelly accepted the UCLA job. This presented an interesting test case.
Would Kelly be able to produce now that he was back on his preferred level? (After all, Nick Saban went 15-17 with the Dolphins and has done OK since returning to college.) Did the NFL break Kelly? Is Kelly a figure who had an original concept, then no ability to stay ahead of the curve after being copied?
Three games into his tenure at UCLA, the answers to the two latter questions might seem to be “yes.”
UCLA is 0-3 for the first time since 1971. Kelly is taking fire from all sides, including the father of his blue chip freshman quarterback, who tweeted that Kelly’s coaching “is so bad that it demands closed practices” and that Kelly is a “million dollar coach who bares [sic] no responsibility.” And while new coaches often struggle on the field and use the promise of playing time to land a top recruiting class, UCLA currently sits 10th in the Pac-12 in that department with only seven verbals, none of whom reach four-star status.
Fresno State blew UCLA out in Week 3. The Bulldogs are coached by Jeff Tedford.
The last time Kelly and Tedford had met on the field, Kelly’s Ducks beat Tedford’s Cal 59-17, outgaining the Golden Bears 575-349. Tedford was in his final season at Cal, ending a tenure that’d hit great heights when he’d been one of the most attractive prospects in the sport. Tedford then had a brief stint in the NFL cut short by heart issues, an unsuccessful season as a CFL head coach, and a one-year gig as an offensive assistant at Washington.
And then like a phoenix, Tedford returned. He was hired by Fresno State, brought a CFL defensive coordinator, and immediately turned a one-win team into a 10-win team that almost won the MWC.
UCLA has every conceivable advantage over Fresno State: tradition, facilities, money, proximity to recruiting, etc. Yet Tedford’s Bulldogs wiped the Rose Bowl floor with Kelly’s Bruins, winning 38-14 and out-gaining UCLA 420-270. Fresno State’s win probability for the game was 97.4 percent. This was not a cheap victory.
But remember: in 2006, Kelly was a coordinator at FCS New Hampshire while Tedford was seen as one of the best coaches in FBS. These things change quickly.
In 2012, Kelly was seen as one of the best coaches in FBS and was about to be hired by the Eagles while Tedford was on his last legs at Cal.
In 2018, Tedford is doing an outstanding job at Fresno State while three hours south, Kelly’s reputation is diminishing rapidly as he is tacking what looks like a tire fire in Westwood onto a pattern of failure in the NFL.
So what are the takeaways?
- We’re only three games into Kelly’s time at UCLA. The Bruins were 77th in S&P+ last year and 58th the year before, all despite having a first-rounder at QB. Their over/under for wins this year was five. The roster was not recruited for Chip’s style, and Kelly is having to start a true freshman at QB. It’s too early to make definitive statements.
- Coaching production is dynamic, as are our perceptions of coaching ability. A coach can succeed for a variety of reasons — luck in close games, working with certain players, schematic innovation that has not yet been copied, the implosion of traditional rivals — and fail when the context changes. The reverse is also true.
- Kelly’s tailspin is not forever. It might be fair to assume from Kelly’s current trajectory that he is headed back to being an offensive coordinator. However, if Tedford could go from “fired at Cal and a brief flame-out in the CFL” to “totally turning Fresno State around,” then there is hope for Chip.
- Tedford’s turnaround deserves more attention. We can all derive a little inspiration from a coach who has gone from a one-year failure in the CFL to a huge turnaround in the Central Valley. Old dog, new tricks.
See More:
