Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan usually either loses close or beats the hell out of you

Michigan beat Nebraska 56-10 in Week 4 of the 2018 season. It’s hard to believe, but that final score doesn’t do the blowout justice. I mean, just look at this box score.

It’s not a win as much as its just an erasure of another team. They just blotted another Power 5 team from the face of the earth. It probably wouldn’t have even been this bad if Nebraska didn’t bring this on itself. Nebraska coach Scott Frost said two years ago that his UCF team was the physical victor over Michigan, even though they got waxed.

“It’s hard to say when the score is what it is, but we came in here and outhit those guys today,” Frost said. “Standing on the sideline, there was no doubt who was hitting harder. Our guys came in hungry and wanting to do that. It’s rare you can come into Michigan and rush for 300 yards on them. They had to run a fly sweep in the fourth quarter to get to 100.

The Wolverines left no doubt about who was the physical victor in this game. They beat ‘em so bad they had to resort to volleyball tactics.

But the thing is, Michigan usually does this type of thing when it wins. And when the Wolverines lose under Jim Harbaugh, they are rarely blown out.

2015

Yeah, Michigan lost the first game of Harbaugh’s tenure, but it was close at least. The Ohio State game, however, was not.

-Utah: 24-17
-Michigan State: 27-23 (Michigan should have absolutely won this game, if you’ll remember.)
-Ohio State: 42-13

2016

The margin between potential Playoff and Orange Bowl for Michigan was four points, and then UM lost that Orange Bowl by one more.

-Iowa: 14-13
-Ohio State: 30-27 in double overtime
-Florida State: 33-32

2017

Ok, so our theme hits a bit of a snag here as Michigan rebuilt, but besides the Penn State game, there were still no real decisive blowouts, especially once you account for Michigan’s QB injuries that year. They even hung around with a Playoff-bound Ohio State squad.

-Michigan State: 14-10
-Penn State: 42-13
-Wisconsin: 24-10
-Ohio State: 31-20
-South Carolina: 26-19

That’s 11 losses, only four of which are by more than a touchdown.

When it’s good, it’s good. When it’s bad, it’s not terribly bad ... and yet, as rival fans will never stop reminding you, the Wolverines have still yet to finish better than third in their division.

Here’s Michigan’s average margin of victory per Harbaugh season:

The average Michigan score during wins in the Harbaugh tenure is 39-12. When Michigan’s clearly better than you, they’re almost like Alabama in the way that they beat you comprehensively. Take Rutgers, for instance. There is no letting an opponent hang around to maybe make it a game.

Nah. Michigan erases teams it is definitely better than. And I’m not talking about the scoring margin here. I’m talking about the complete effort, again using Rutgers as an example.

Rutgers had 6 (SIX!) yards of offense in the first half. That, ESPN said, was the fewest in the sport in almost two calendar years, since Wake Forest got 6 in the first half against Boston College.

Rutgers lost 7 yards on the first five plays of the second half, crossing into negatives for the day. The Scarlet Knights didn’t for good get into the black in total yardage until about midway through the third quarter. They finished with a sterling 39, including 5 passing yards. Michigan had 600.

It adjusts for opponents, and shows what would happen in a game if a team played a perfectly average team. Basically: how much does your scoring result actually hold up? Michigan’s often do.

Usually, Michigan exceeds its actual scoring margin with its adjusted scoring margin, which is to say against a perfectly average team, the result would usually have been a more decisive win. In Harbaugh’s 30 wins at Michigan, the Wolverines’ adjusted scoring margin has been higher than their actual scoring margin 20 times.

So not only do the Wolverines win. When they win, it’s usually a whoopin’, and those whoopin’s hold up in the light.