The 16 best bets for Week 2 of college football gambling, including Mississippi State

All wagers at -110 odds and for 1 unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. All odds listed below are current as of Thursday, when this column was filed. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: Last week I went 3-9 (-$680). It’s a terrible start to the season. I made some downright bad picks that were nowhere close (under in the Marshall/Miami (Ohio) game and over in the VT/FSU game).

There were also some losers I’d fire at again in a heartbeat, like Western Michigan, which put up 9.44 yards/play against Syracuse and lost by 13, thanks to some wild special teams and field position.

It’s important not to overreact to a Week 1 game more than you would to, say, a game in October. It’s simply 60 minutes of football.

But there are a few results which might be meaningful.

For instance, SMU through three quarters against North Texas had only 33 total yards and was down 36-0. They put up 223 in garbage time, but averaging 11 yards per quarter against the North Texas starting defense is wildly bad. That might be more than an off night. Even though the TCU Horned Frogs have a lookahead spot here with Ohio State on deck, I cannot bring myself to back SMU with the points.

A quick note: My personal power ratings made Stanford a 5-point favorite, Georgia a 10-point favorite, and Michigan State a 5-point favorite. I’m not going to force bets on the biggest games if I don’t believe there is value.

1. Mississippi State -8.5 (-105) at Kansas State: Laying points in Manhattan makes me uneasy. But the Wildcats looked downright bad in Week 1. Mississippi State’s defensive front is nasty, and if KSU has to throw, it could get ugly.

2. Rice +17.5 at Hawaii: Hawaii has looked really good, while Rice has not. But still, 17.5 points? I figured it would be under two touchdowns.

3. Memphis -7 at Navy: Navy’s pass defense was very bad in Week 1. I look for the Tigers to outscore the Midshipmen behind transfer QB Brady White.

4. Arkansas at Colorado State Over 69.5: Colorado State has allowed more than 1,200 yards in two games. It is looking like one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Arkansas wants to push tempo, and its own defense is not strong.

5. Duke +3 (-105) at Northwestern: Duke is a good defensive team with solid QB play. I think the Blue Devils should be favored by one, so of course I am taking the points. Northwestern was +3.3 in the turnover luck category in Week 1, tied for the sixth-highest mark.

6. New Mexico +35 at Wisconsin: New Mexico will look to control the tempo to keep the possessions low and the score close. The Lobos are a bad team, but not a terrible team. That is a key difference in gambling.

7. Virginia +6.5 at Indiana: Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey looked good in the opener against FIU. But laying a touchdown against other Power 5 teams? I’ll take the ‘Hoos.

8. Western Michigan +28.5 at Michigan: Western Michigan can move the football. It put up 9.4 yards per play last weekend against Syracuse. While Michigan’s offense will likely be much improved, I could see a 40-17 type game.

9. Clemson at Texas A&M Under 55: I look for Jimbo Fisher to limit possessions in this one, as was his tendency at Florida State. The explosive potential of Clemson’s offense is scary, but I do not trust Kelly Bryant yet. I could see a 31-17 game.

10. Utah at NIU +10.5: The Huskies actually had a higher success rate (35 to 33 percent) than the Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 1. Utah has a look-ahead situation with a game against Washington on deck.

11. Michigan State at Arizona State Under 55: Arizona State’s offense looked good in Week 1, and Michigan State’s defense looked shaky. But going Over here would probably be an overreaction to a single-week data point. Both head coaches are former defensive coordinators, and I would expect a lower-scoring game.

12. Maryland at Bowling Green +16 (-105): This line seems inflated due to Maryland’s inspired win over the Longhorns. My numbers made it 13, so I am taking it.

13. Buffalo +5 at Temple: I was planning to bet this one anyway, but Temple losing to Villanova reduced the line. Still, Temple’s offense looked awful against the Wildcats. I am confident that the Bulls can score.

14. Iowa State at Iowa -4 (-105): The Hawkeyes return three suspended linemen who missed the opener.

15. Kansas +5 at Central Michigan: Central Michigan’s loss to Kentucky was closer than the performance indicates it should have been. Meanwhile, Kansas lost to Nicholls State, a good FCS team. This is a play based strictly on the numbers. So hold your nose and bet it.

16. Samford at Florida State Over 53.5 (-120). Samford QB Devlin Hodges is one of the better QBs in the nation, regardless of division. Samford scored 14 against UGA last season and 41 at Mississippi State the year before. I could see a 47-17 game. Note: Not all books offer FBS vs. FCS lines, but 5dimes and others do. Shop around.

I made 26 futures or prop bets, which I published between May and August. My current record on these is 0-0, with a profit of 0. My reasoning for making them can be found at the link.

In Week 1, I was very excited about Notre Dame clearing one of its toughest hurdles of the year, and with how Oklahoma looked. Washington losing to Auburn is a blow, but not a death sentence for my Huskies’ futures.

UCLA missing a bowl is looking great after the loss to Cincinnati. But Northwestern now looks like a shaky proposition.

Wins

None yet, it’s Week 1!

Losses

None, yet. It’s Week 1!

Undecided