After Texas beat Oklahoma, 48-45, on October 6, I wrote about the propensity of Tom Herman teams to play incredibly well in bright spotlights and mail it in for less interesting games.
Here comes the 2019 Texas hype train. Are the Horns ready?
Tom Herman’s Longhorns continue to play their best games on the biggest stages. Can they avoid slipping up in the spotlight?
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images
When Herman was head coach at Houston in 2015-16, the Cougars went 22-4, beating six ranked teams (including No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 3 Louisville in 2016) but losing to UConn as a 10-point favorite, Navy as a 17-point favorite, and SMU as a 22-point favorite.
UH won all five games in which it was an underdog, overachieving by 24.6 points per game versus the spread; all five of the Coogs’ losses came as favorites.
In his first season and a half at Texas, the trend has continued. [...]
But now comes maybe an even bigger challenge: figuring out how to bottle this performance [against OU] up and use it as favorites too. Because when you win enough, your underdog opportunities begin to become a lot less frequent.
After that game, the Longhorns continued Herman’s trend. They eked by Baylor at home and lost to an Oklahoma State at its low point. They squeaked out tight wins against a Texas Tech that was missing its starting quarterback and a Kansas that was Kansas.
They of course showed up in the biggest games. They played well against fellow Big 12 contenders WVU (a tight loss) and Iowa State (a 14-point win), and after scoring a spot in the Big 12 title game, they had Oklahoma tied heading into the fourth quarter.
They also beat Georgia — fifth-ranked, led-Alabama-in-the-final-quarter, angry-it-wasn’t-in-the-CFP Georgia — in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day.
Yes, disclaimers apply. Georgia’s Deandre Baker, maybe the best cornerback in the country, sat out. Linebacker D’Andre Walker, the Dawgs’ leader in tackles for loss, did too. So did freshman lineman Jordan Davis. Linebackers Monty Rice and Robert Beal Jr. played but didn’t make a tackle. This was a shell of the unit that ranked 16th in Def. S&P+ in the regular season.
That doesn’t really make a difference for the story, though, does it? The UGA offense, which ranked third in Off. S&P+, was mostly healthy as it no-showed for three quarters.
And besides, the story isn’t really whether the Dawgs showed up — it’s that Texas absolutely did, from Bevo’s pregame outburst onward. Herman teams always do for the spotlight games.
The Horns went a wonderfully symmetrical 5-2 against ranked teams and 5-2 against unranked teams in 2018. Herman teams remain one of the sport’s best underdogs.
They’re probably only going to be underdogs once or twice in 2019, however.
Next fall, Texas hosts LSU on September 7 and visits Dallas for the annual Red River game against Oklahoma. As things stand, those are the only games on the schedule in which the Horns might — might — not be favored. Their road games: West Virginia, TCU, Iowa State, Baylor, and, technically, Rice (they play the Owls at NRG Stadium in Houston). They have a couple of huge games and a whole bunch in which they’ll be somewhat comfortably favored.
They’ll also return a lot of this year’s key pieces, even if there will be many new faces.
- Quarterback Sam Ehlinger finished his sophomore campaign with 3,296 passing yards and 677 non-sack rushing yards. In key situations all year, Herman and coordinator Tim Beck sent him slamming between the tackles for necessary yardage. He almost certainly can’t make a whole year of carrying the load he carried against Georgia — 29 pass attempts, 19 rush attempts — without wearing down, but he came into his own in 2018.
- Junior receivers Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson combined for 154 catches, 2,161 yards, and 16 touchdowns this year. Both received mid- to late-round draft grades, which increases the odds that both will return in 2019. Neither has made it official, however.
- The safety corps of junior Brandon Jones and true freshmen Caden Sterns and B.J. Foster survived a season in the Big 12, maybe the most safety-unfriendly conference in FBS. Foster finished with nine tackles for loss and six passes defensed and could become one of the most exciting hybrid safeties in the country.
Granted, there’s also a lot to replace, especially if either Humphrey or Johnson takes the NFL leap. Freshman All-American right tackle Samuel Cosmi will return, but Texas will take a pretty hard hit in the trenches. They lose three offensive linemen who combined for 77 career starts (Patrick Vahe, Calvin Anderson, Elijah Rodriguez), and on defense they lose their three leading tacklers on the line (ends Charles Omenihu and Breckyn Hager and tackle Chris Nelson).
Gate-keeper linebackers Gary Johnson and Anthony Wheeler are also out of eligibility. So are nickel back P.J. Locke III and starting corners Kris Boyd and Davante Davis. Eight of this year’s top 11 tacklers were seniors; since the unit disappointed overall — it was 55th in Def. S&P+ heading into bowl season — we can attempt a positive spin of “Hey, this unit underachieved, so maybe new blood is a good thing, but that’s a tricky sell.
This wasn’t a dramatically young team, even if it played like one. And now Texas must insert a ton of younger players into the lineup while dealing with almost certain top-10 expectations. At least recruiting has gone well.
You can see whatever you want here.
- In 2019, Texas will have a veteran quarterback, potentially two of the best receivers in the country, an exciting secondary, a manageable schedule, and increasing proof of concept.
- The Horns will also be extremely inexperienced in the trenches — where they were most impressive against Georgia — and raw at linebacker. And they’ll still have an offense that requires Ehlinger to plunge into the line 20 times to be at its most effective.
The hype is coming. We know that much. We’ll see if the two-deep is ready. And we’ll see if Herman can consistently have his teams up and ready.
Elite programs that are “BACK!” — as Ehlinger declared late on Tuesday night in New Orleans — don’t lose to Maryland and squeak by Tulsa and Kansas. The final piece of the puzzle for Herman in Austin might not be filling in holes on the two-deep. It will be figuring out how to field a team that plays every game like the Sugar Bowl.
See More:
