UCF is the king of the Group of 5 until proven otherwise

Bill C’s annual preview series of every FBS team in college football continues. Catch up here!

On December 17, 2016, in the second annual Cure Bowl, UCF played like crap.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves jumped out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead on the Knights without having to actually do much — they blocked a punt for a score, then scored again on a 16-yard drive following a fumbled kick return. UCF rallied to make it 17-10, but Justice Hansen threw two second-half touchdown passes, and ASU cruised, 31-13.

UCF didn’t lose again for 745 days. And it took a tremendous LSU team, an injured quarterback, and a late interception to do it.

For more than two full calendar years, UCF didn’t lose. We know everything that happened in those calendar years — the lack of credit from the CFP committee, the claimed national title, the heel turn, the obstinate A.D., the indiscriminate flame thrower of a fan base that got so used to being offended that it began screaming “DISRESPECT!!!!!” even after compliments and made Twitter hell for even friendly media members. It’s all pretty well documented. But I just want this intro to be about the streak itself.

Over the course of two calendar years, UCF beat...

The Knights survived a coaching change. Frost left for Nebraska after 2017, and Josh Heupel succeeded him and won 12 straight to start 2018. They survived some pretty serious defensive attrition after 2017, and for a while, they survived without their quarterback, too.

McKenzie Milton, a presumptive 2019 Heisman hopeful, suffered a gruesome leg injury with UCF up 7-0 on USF late in 2018, and the Knights outscored the Bulls 31-10 the rest of the way. The next week, in the AAC Championship game against a strong Memphis squad, UCF spotted the Tigers a 17-point halftime lead and then outscored them 35-3 in the second half.

Absolutely nothing could bring this UCF team down. Until LSU did, anyway.

In 2019, UCF and Heupel face a number of significant challenges.

Maybe all these challenges take their toll. Maybe they actually slip up here and/or there.

But it’s still hard to pick anyone else to win the AAC, isn’t it?

Milton’s replacement, Darriel Mack Jr., is back, and Heupel added Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush to the mix as well. Two running backs who combined for nearly 1,900 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards return, as do two wideouts who combined for nearly 100 catches, three all-conference offensive linemen, and all-conference contenders at defensive end (Brendon Hayes), linebacker (Nate Evans), cornerback (Nevelle Clarke and Brandon Moore), and free safety (Richie Grant).

In this year’s Memphis preview, I declared myself as bullish as anyone on the planet about Mike Norvell’s Tigers. They were better than their record last season, they return as many play-makers as anyone in the Group of Five, and they’re projected favorites in every game on the schedule.

But UCF’s a projected favorite in every game, too. And if the two teams meet again in the AAC title game — it would be their fifth matchup in three seasons — how confident would you actually be in UM?

To put it politely, the Tigers would bear the burden of proof in that matchup. We know what UCF can do when challenged, and when the game’s close, so do both UCF and Memphis.

Milton’s consistency was just so damn impressive. Over the course of 22 games in 2017-18, he produced a passer rating of 150 or better 17 times. He was strangely poor against SC State early in 2018, and SMU defended the UCF passing game strangely well in both seasons. Otherwise, he was ridiculously steady.

His likely replacements still have something to prove in that regard.

Wimbush is a sturdy runner and decent passer. I don’t think he can match Mack from an upside standpoint, but he’s got experience that Mack won’t match for quite a while. We’ll see what that means for a QB race that will continue into fall camp.

One thing is certain: the QB of choice will have weapons around him.

The line is the question mark. Sort of. UCF both loses and returns a lot of experience, but it’s hard to worry too much considering three all-conference performers — center Jordan Johnson, guard Cole Schneider, tackle Jake Brown — are all in the “returns” pile. They will need to unearth a couple of new starters on the left side (four-star senior Trevor Elbert was the departed Wyatt Miller’s backup at LT last year), but the known quantities here are quite good.

Technically, the defense improved last year. After ranking 63rd in Def. S&P+ in 2017, the Knights rose to 47th in Randy Shannon’s first year as defensive coordinator. The output was pretty up-and-down — UCF allowed 12.3 points per game and 4.4 yards per play against Pitt, Cincinnati, and USF, but allowed 37.8 PPG and 6.8 YPP against Memphis (twice), Temple, and LSU — but it was decent on average.

The Knights were dynamite in the red zone (they were second in FBS in inside-the-10 success rate and first in goal-line success rate) and were active both in run defense (29th in stuff rate) and in on-the-ball pass defense (26th in completion rate allowed, fourth in the ratio of passes defensed to incompletions).

With Clarke and Moore returning at corner, plus Grant at safety, I’m not too worried about the on-ball defending. This trio combined for nine interceptions and 26 breakups (eight tackles for loss, as well) — they are aggressive and exciting, and while the better pass defenses in the country can land some shots against them at times, the lessers cannot.

There’s reason for concern in run defense, though, thanks to the nuked two-deep up front. In Hayes and sophomores Randy Charlton and Kalia Davis, UCF does return three intriguing ends. But that’s all the Knights return.

You can tell how much of a concern the defensive line is by how much space it occupied in Heupel’s 2019 recruiting class. He signed two JUCO transfers and added Virginia Tech transfer Cam Goode last fall, and he added FIVE freshmen on top of that. That’s one-third of the class dedicated to four of 22 spots in the lineup. And that’s after redshirting four freshmen last year, too.

I like the approach, by the way. In the absence of known quality, flood the market with quantity. And between the trio above and former star recruits like Dedrion Bacote-Sweat, Jeremiah Zio, and Landon Woodson, I’m betting some stellar ends emerge.

The tackle position remains a mystery, however. The most experienced DT on the roster (sophomore Mason Cholewa) made 4.5 tackles last year. Junior Kenny Turnier, who could end up moving to the interior, had five. The 6’2, 317-pound, nearly-four-star Goode is particularly exciting. He’s also a freshman.

Losing Jasinski at middle linebacker adds further instability, but at least he’s the only LB Shannon has to replace. Senior Nate Evans and junior Eric Mitchell return at OLB, and sophomore (and likely Jasinski replacement) Eriq Gilyard, yet another former star recruit, recorded five TFLs among his 29 tackles last year.

There are quite a few tough personnel losses this team has to overcome, but aside from Milton, the toughest might very well come in special teams. UCF ranked 10th in Special Teams S&P+ last fall due to the fabulous work of place-kicker Matthew Wright (74-for-74 on PATs, 12-for-14 on FGs) and punter Mac Loudermilk (43.4 average, 12th in punt efficiency, first in bearded punt celebrations).

Otis Anderson and Adrian Killins Jr. are scary enough in the return game, but the legs power your ST S&P+ ranking, and UCF will have a couple of new ones.

The defensive line is a concern, as is a potential drop off in consistency at quarterback. I find it very unlikely that UCF goes 12-0 for a third straight regular season, especially with some of the solid opponents on the docket (not to mention the likely home run swings they’ll probably face in places like Cincinnati and Temple). Despite a healthy preseason No. 27 S&P+ ranking, the Knights are projected to win something more like 9.3 games on average than the 12 to which they’ve grown accustomed.

Still ... they’re projected favorites, by at least small margins, in all 12 games. They still have the deepest skill corps in the AAC, and while defensive depth might be questionable, they have at least one known play-maker in every position but DT. They’re going to give themselves a chance to have another huge year, and until proven otherwise, they are kings of the AAC and the Group of 5 ranks. Maybe Memphis can finally slay them. Maybe Cincy or Temple does so in the division. But UCF still has the crown and isn’t likely to give it up without one hell of a fight.

All 2019 preview data to date.