Can Tony Sanchez’s UNLV rebuild get back on schedule?

Bill C’s annual preview series of every FBS team in college football continues. Catch up here!

There’s nothing like a quarterback injury to throw off a nice tale of linear progress.

Sanchez inherited a two-win UNLV in 2015, when he was hired away from nearby high school powerhouse Bishop Gorman, and he won three, four, and five games over the coming seasons. The school would secure funding for a practice facility upgrade and arrange to move from the aging Sam Boyd Stadium, eight miles away from campus, to the Raiders’ new stadium right down the road.

The win total was rising, recruiting was improving (the charismatic Sanchez told me about getting more of his first-choice recruits, among other things, when I visited campus last August), and this program, dormant for most of its history, appeared to truly have a path toward a prolific future. You could see the progress wherever you looked.

Then Armani Rogers went down. And everything went briefly awry.

UNLV was just 2-2 when its exciting quarterback tore the plantar plate in his right big toe, but they were competitive in losses to USC and Arkansas State and had quickly leaped from 104th in S&P+ at the start of the season to 76th. Rogers would return for the final two games and lead an upset of rival Nevada in the season finale.

The offense regressed, and a rickety defense imploded. First-year defensive coordinator Tim Skipper brought a havoc-heavy mindset, but among the increased tackles for loss were lots and lots of explosive plays, and the Rebels improved only from 121st to 117th in Def. S&P+.

Rogers’ best asset is his running ability — counting sacks as pass attempts, he finished 2018 with 626 rushing yards and 540 net passing yards. He is perhaps always going to be an injury threat for that reason. But in theory, the practice UNLV got without him in 2018 could pay off if he goes down again.

Cal transfer Max Gilliam, his replacement behind center, struggled mightily at first but was excellent in an upset of SDSU. And while leading receiver Brandon Presley tore his ACL in spring practice and is out for the season, UNLV’s three most efficient targets all return.

Barney Cotton is still plugging away in the desert. A former Nebraska lineman and third-round draft pick, Cotton picked up coaching in his mid-30s and became offensive coordinator at his alma mater by his mid-40s. He left Lincoln when Bo Pelini got fired, and like many nearing retirement age, he left for the desert.

The beginning of the 2018 season had to make Cotton’s old Nebraska soul glow. The Rebels averaged 337 rushing yards per game in their first four games, then averaged 224 when a rusty Rogers took back over late in the year.

In between, though, came some whiplash. After the disastrous New Mexico game, UNLV averaged 248 passing yards per game, and only 171 rushing, with Gilliam behind center.

Even with the mid-season identity change, there was never any question where UNLV’s strengths lied. For the season, the Rebels ranked 13th in Rushing S&P+ and 121st in Passing S&P+.

And now they get Rogers back in time to lose star running back Lexington Thomas and two backups. The run game is now in the hands of Rogers, Charles Williams (who rushed for 335 yards), and untested youngsters.

Williams was supposed to be the starter in 2017. After rushing for a school freshman record (at the time) of 763 yards, he began his sophomore season gaining 93 yards in just 12 carries but suffered a season-ending ankle injury and redshirted. Thomas exploded in his absence.

In 2018, Williams was the lone bright spot in the blowout loss to Fresno State, rushing 16 times for 121 yards. He’s got speed to the edge, and when Rogers is healthy, Williams should make defenders pay for getting wrong-footed in the option game.

His backups are the exact opposite. Sophomores Chad Magyar (6’2, 205) and Tariq Hollandsworth (5’11, 220) are more physical runners and could provide a nice change of pace. Wonderfully named Cal transfer Biaggio Ali Walsh could also play a role, if the NCAA’s Wheel of Destiny determines him eligible. (Sanchez’s response to whether Ali Walsh will get a waiver: “Everybody else in the country is. I don’t see why he wouldn’t.” Fair.)

The front should be Sanchez’s best yet. The Rebels put up big rushing numbers despite not only Rogers’ injury, but also constant shuffling. Only two linemen started all 12 games, and 10 started at least one. Nine of those guys return, including 330-pound seniors Justin Polu and Jaron Caldwell and 325-pound sophomore Justice Oluwaseun. Fighting a meaty line and a super-speedy Rogers-Williams combo doesn’t seem fair.

UNLV will still have to pass sometimes, and in theory that could go better, too.

With Presley’s injury, UNLV loses the guy who benefited the most from Gilliam’s presence — he had nine catches for 77 yards when Rogers was starting and 26 for 357 when Gilliam was. But senior Darren Woods Jr., junior Mekhi Stevenson, and sophomore Tyler Collins all posted better marginal efficiency figures than Presley, and Woods and Collins both averaged more yards per catch, too. South Alabama transfer Jordan McCray (6’5, 200) and three-star redshirt freshman Patrick Ballard (6’3, 195) provide some size to an otherwise small corps.

In a three-game midseason surge against USU, Air Force, and SJSU, Collins exploded, catching 16 passes for 331 yards and five touchdowns (four against SJSU). The rest of the year: 15 catches, 91 yards for the freshman. Woods had five for 75 against Air Force and four for 100 against SDSU, too. The potential is pretty obvious, but consistency is needed.

If you can’t have a good defense, at least have an active one. That appears to have been the attitude Skipper brought.

A former Fresno State star linebacker, Skipper spent most of his coaching career out west -- Western New Mexico, Sacramento State, Fresno State, Colorado -- but then followed former CSU head coach Jim McElwain to Florida for three seasons. Sanchez lured him back to the MWC when Dan Mullen took over at UF.

By the raw numbers, the UNLV defense appeared to be affected as much by Rogers’ absence as the offense was. Really, that’s a product of UNLV dominating the two most inferior offenses it faced (UTEP, Prairie View A&M).

Still, Skipper found disruptive pieces in his first UNLV linebacking corps, and the two most disruptive ones, seniors Javin White and Gabe McCoy, return.

McCoy was great near the line, posting 13.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, and 15.5 run stuffs. White was good all over: 6.5 TFLs, two sacks, four interceptions, four pass breakups, four forced fumbles, nine run stuffs. Weakside linebacker Bailey Laolagi is gone, and McCoy spent most of his time at defensive end this spring, but that opens up spots for either junior Farrell Hester II, high-three-star JUCO transfer Vic Viramontes, and redshirt freshman Malakai Salu in the lineup, and that’s not a bad thing.

The losses up front are more costly. Ends Roger Mann and Jameer Outsey and tackle Salanoa-Alo Wily combined for 21 more TFLs and 10.5 sacks. The return of junior DE/DT Nick Dehdashtian from a broken foot, plus the presence of junior nose tackle Kolo Uasike, will help to account for these losses, and McCoy lined up at end in some obvious pass rush situations last year. He and redshirt freshman Malcolm Johnson are listed as linebackers on the roster but were listed as DEs on the post-spring depth chart. We’ll see if that ends up permanent.

UNLV’s defense was shaky in all situations but became particularly all-or-nothing when opponents were behind schedule.

The Rebels ranked a ghastly 126th in Passing Downs S&P+ — 112th in PD marginal efficiency, 130th in PD marginal explosiveness — thanks to the combination of a merely decent pass rush and a secondary that was more aggressive than it really had a right to be. On third-and-4 or more, opponents completed 54 percent of their passes at 15.5 yards per completion, and a quarter of those completions went for 25 or more yards.

Sanchez and Skipper have to hope that the combination of experience, better health, and a JUCO supplement lead to improvement in the back. Corners Jericho Flowers (hamstring) and Alex Perry (concussion, then shoulder) missed seven games between them and weren’t full strength for much of the year, which meant that freshman Greg Francis got more run than expected.

They’re all back, and JUCO corner Aaron Lewis was a spring standout. Two other JUCOs (Jeremiah Houston and Gamon Howard) could work their way into the mix alongside these corners and veteran safeties Evan Austrie and Greg Francis (who also both missed time). Freshman Jamel Hamm was one of the jewels of UNLV’s 2019 signing class, too; he could play an early role.

UNLV’s unit has gotten slowly worse during Sanchez’s tenure, but there’s almost no more room to fall — the Rebels were 128th in Special Teams S&P+ in 2018. The unit will get a reset with Presley’s injury (he was the closest thing to a steady return man) and the loss of embattled place-kicker Evan Pantels. Daniel Gutierrez appears to have a stronger leg than Pantels, and Tyleek Collins’ explosiveness and slot-receiver size typecast him as a good return man. We’ll see if a youth movement here pays off.

It was so easy to be optimistic at this time last year. But Rogers’ injury and the defense’s lack of improvement (and injuries in the back) revealed the program didn’t yet have the depth to survive in an improving MWC.

Could this year be different? Gilliam is more tested, in case Rogers goes down again, and last year’s injuries appear to have created much better depth at OL, DL, and DB. The linebacking corps and OL could be among the MWC’s best, and a Rogers-Williams backfield will be terrifying at times.

The schedule’s a bear, though. The Rebels play five opponents projected in the S&P+ top 60, and they are projected favorites in only four games and a one-possession underdog in only two others. They’ll have to overachieve their No. 100 projection to get to six wins, and while that’s possible, it’s hard to predict it.

This is a huge year for Sanchez. With the stadium change and new facilities on the horizon, this is the time for the Rebels to be moving upward instead of stagnating. He could still be the long-term leader this program needs, but all the bad breaks the Rebels got in 2018 need to turn into good breaks.

All 2019 preview data to date.