Why San Diego State should bounce back from 2018’s mini-collapse

Bill C’s annual preview series of every FBS team in college football continues. Catch up here!

On November 10, 2018, SDSU hosted UNLV. The 7-2 Aztecs had some cracks in their armor, and the offense was far less explosive than it had been in previous years. But it was mid-November, when SDSU tends to shine.

Going back to 2011, Long’s first year, the Aztecs had been 24-9 in games played after November 9. And the 2018 Aztecs still had two opponents ranked in the S&P+ triple digits on the schedule. Despite offensive issues, they had a very good chance at double-digit wins for the fourth straight season. And even if they were unable to prevent Fresno State from winning the division title, my statement at the end of the 2018 SDSU preview appeared prescient:

So yes, following a disappointing 10-win season, we might be looking at a disappointing nine-win season. God forbid. And in 2019, the Aztecs will return a nasty offensive line, the deepest secondary in the league, and, potentially, a 1,500-yard (or more) rusher.

But then they lost four games in a row, and the defense was the main culprit.

Through nine games, SDSU had ranked 17th in Def. S&P+, which would have been the high-water mark for one of the most consistent mid-major defenses. But then the Aztecs allowed 6.5 yards per play to UNLV, 7.4 to Hawaii, and 6.8 to Ohio. Put under pressure by an inefficient offense, they cratered for the first time in years, and it didn’t even take a specific injury or change in personnel.

Watching the Aztecs lose to UNLV and Hawaii, then get destroyed by Ohio in the Frisco Bowl, was something we most certainly weren’t used to.

SDSU had become one of the surest things in the Group of 5. The Aztecs have won 40 games in the last four years and hadn’t endured a run of iffy play like that since the start of 2015.

Of course, it was also just four games. A bad (extended) month, basically. A small arc on a trends chart.

They still finished 47th in S&P+. And now Long returns what appears to be an awfully Rocky Long team: loaded running back corps, mean offensive line, tricky and tenacious 3-3-5 defense. Plus, while they anticipated having to replace starting quarterback Christian Chapman, injury meant they got a head start.

With Fresno State losing quite a bit from last year’s conference champion, S&P+ projects the Aztecs and Bulldogs basically even within the MWC West. We could find that the program is still everything we thought it was at the beginning of November 2018.

That’s not to say Long isn’t changing. He began using the “S” word this spring — “spread”.

The offense will look a whole lot difference than last year. That doesn’t mean our philosophy has changed, but we’re going to be in a lot more spread formations and our quarterbacks are going to be in the shotgun a lot more.

If the offense contributed to the defense’s decline, Long wants to decrease the odds of that happening again.

Truthfully, SDSU’s offense didn’t become a problem in 2018. Even during its run of prolific rushers — Ronnie Hillman (3,243 yards in 2010-11), Adam Muema (2,702 in 2012-13), Donnel Pumphrey (6,405 in 2013-16!!), Rashaad Penny (3,266 in 2016-17) — the Aztecs were frequently inefficient and reliant on big bursts. The bursts were relatively frequent, but there were plenty of second- and third-and-longs, and SDSU’s passing hasn’t been all that advanced.

The Aztecs ranked between 50th and 72nd in Off. S&P+ six times from 2011-17. They slipped to 91st in 2014, rebounded, then fell to 92nd last year.

Kudos to Long and coordinator Jeff Horton for being willing to tinker. Granted, Long’s use of “spread” this spring is more formational than philosophical. If nothing else, it’s an attempt to pluck some defenders from the box. It doesn’t appear they plan on adopting a Josh Heupel tempo, and they don’t want to start winging the ball 45 times per game. But that’s fine — SDSU doesn’t have the personnel to do so anyway.

Including Nebraska grad transfer Greg Bell, returning running backs combined for 446 carries last year. Returning wideouts combined for 130 targets. That says quite a bit.

Despite a hit-or-miss junior year, senior Juwan Washington has still averaged 5.8 yards per carry for his career. He was handed a ridiculously heavy load in 2018 — 87 carries in the first three games — and dealt with toe issues, then a collar bone injury. He returned and finished strong, but his 999 yards were by far the lowest for a leading rusher in the Long era.

Now his supporting cast at RB is vast.

Up front, two former all-conference tackles are gone, but five returnees (including all-conference guard Keith Ismael) have combined for 69 career starts, and Long signed a pair of transfers, Oregon’s Jacob Capra and BYU’s Jacob Jimenez.

So yeah, SDSU is still going to run the ball. And it’s up to both the formation and quarterback Ryan Agnew to make sure defenders can’t continue to load up the box.

Agnew ended up succeeding Chapman much earlier than planned. Agnew’s success was situational — he was okay on first downs and third-and-manageable and far less than decent on second downs and third-and-long.

His most efficient weapons (X receiver Fred Trevillion and tight end Kahale Warring) are gone, but sophomore Ethan Dedeaux has lots of efficiency potential, and senior tight end Parker Houston could take on a heavier load after catching 16 of 20 passes for 178 yards last year.

When Agnew needs a big play, he’s also still got Tim Wilson Jr. The junior caught only 19 passes last year, but six of them went for more than 25 yards, and 15 moved the chains. And the sophomore class also includes former star recruit Kobe Smith, plus BJ Busbee and Isaiah Richardson, who combined for 11 catches and 194 yards.

There always seems to be potential in the SDSU receiving corps, and throwing a bit more when opponents are loading up against the run — SDSU ran 73 percent of the time on standard downs last year, eighth in FBS — would probably do everyone some favors.

Long’s version of a 3-3-5 defense has become slightly more common in college football, but he keeps figuring out ways to improve it, end of 2018 notwithstanding.

After averaging a No. 68 ranking in Def. S&P+ from 2009 (when he started out as Brady Hoke’s coordinator) to 2013, SDSU improved to 51st in 2014 and has averaged 34th since.

Even with the late-2018 fade, SDSU ended up ninth in Rushing S&P+, a staggering ranking, considering this system trades heft for speed. The Aztecs’ top seven defensive linemen averaged just 263 pounds, and they handcuffed run games all the same.

The most exciting thing is probably how good last year’s young safeties were. Sure, leading tackler Parker Baldwin was a senior, but Tariq and Trenton Thompson and Tayler Hawkins (combined: 7.5 tackles for loss, 18 passes defensed) were sophomores, and they were sturdy against both run and pass. Along with stalwart linebacker Kyahva Tezino — the team leader in TFLs, sacks, and run stuffs — they were the heart of this unit.

Their return is vital because the line is getting a makeover. Of last year’s top five tacklers, only end Myles Cheatum returns. Granted, ends Connor Mitchell and Keshawn Banks looked promising as freshmen, and Long added rare girth with JUCO road grader Jonah Tavai (6’0, 315), but proven entities are minimal up front.

The main problem came on passing downs. The Aztecs were 12th in Standard Downs S&P+, but they let opponents off the hook, ranking 63rd in blitz-down success rate, 98th in blitz-down big-play rate, and 112th in blitz-down sack rate. If Tezino didn’t bring the QB down, no one did, and I’m not sure that changes this year.

And while the offense’s struggles probably contributed to the defense’s fade, the inability to get off the field meant they faced more plays than they needed to.

They still have Darren Hall, though. Opposing QBs had a lot of time to throw, and the freshman and former star recruit held his own with five passes defensed and generally sticky coverage. His return, along with that of senior Kyree Woods and the safeties, means SDSU’s pass defense should be rugged.

SDSU has had some of the most solid special teams units in the country. The Aztecs have ranked in the Special Teams S&P+ top 50 for each of the last 10 years and have on three occasions (including 2018) ranked 16th or better.

Unfortunately, John Barron II was the main reason for last year’s success (he was 6-for-8 on longer FGs and was a nearly automatic touchback on kickoffs), and he’s gone. Punter Brandon Heicklen is solid, and Juwan Washington remains scary in returns, but the bar is high for Baron’s successor.

The 69-year-old Long is one of my favorite characters in college football. He’s seemed gruff for 20 years (all of his spring quotes have some variation of “We stink” to them, and they make me like him even more), but his new-school defense remains unique.

SDSU’s returning production, combined with Long’s track record, leads me to believe last year’s late-season fade was just a blip. The Aztecs could freshen up their offense, and the turnover on the defensive line is a concern, but they return a huge stable of interesting RBs, their receiving corps might be deserving of extended touches, and the back eight of the defense could be as good as ever.

S&P+ projects the Aztecs 54th overall, just behind No. 51 Fresno State, but the schedule sets up perfectly. FS, Nevada, Wyoming, and Utah State have to visit San Diego (as does BYU), and five of six road games are against teams projected 94th or worse. As a result, they are favored in 11 of 12 games and are the slightest of underdogs in the 12th (48 percent win probability at UCLA).

For all we know, the end of 2018 was a harbinger of doom, but Long gets the benefit of the doubt, and SDSU could be in store for a fantastic year.

All 2019 preview data to date.