With a healthy Khalil Tate, Kevin Sumlin’s Arizona could rebound

Bill C’s annual preview series of every FBS team in college football continues. Catch up here!

A year ago, I said, “if Chip Kelly’s UCLA isn’t the most fascinating team in the Pac-12, Arizona is.” Kevin Sumlin came to town with a track record for first-year success and inherited both a quarterback who was by far the most exciting player in the conference in 2017 and a defense that might have been the conference’s worst.

Granted, it probably says something about the conference that these two “fascinating” teams went a combined 8-16. But Arizona was indeed fascinating in 2018, and for not too many great reasons.

The number of ups and downs made it hard to figure out where to set the bar for 2019.

That’s a lot of good and a lot of bad, and the schedule features even more of both: the Wildcats are projected favorites in their first five games and projected underdogs in six of their last seven.

There were plenty of reasons to be either intrigued or concerned about the marriage between Mazzone and Tate. Mazzone had worked with both statues (Philip Rivers, Brock Osweiler) and more mobile QBs (Brett Hundley) through the years, and while the results had been solid at times, it was clear that Tate wasn’t going to be running as much as he had in 2017, when his ratio of pass attempts to rush attempts was about 1.4-to-1.

In 2018, that ratio was 5.3-to-1. The ankle injury limited Tate’s mobility, sure, but even in those first two bad games, he rushed just 14 times for 34 yards.

When a QB is working to change his instincts, you can almost see him thinking during a play. Tate was miserable early on.

He made progress late, though. It’s easy enough to write off strong performances against SUU and OSU as dominance of bad competition, but in his last four games he completed 60 percent of his passes and averaged 8.6 yards per non-sack carry (albeit over only five carries per game). UA averaged 39 points per game in that span, too.

Even when Tate was rushing less, if he was playing well, Taylor was probably thriving. In the six-game Good Tate sample, Taylor rushed 153 times for 955 yards (6.2 per carry). In the other six: 102 for 479 (4.7).

As a fan of awesome things, I hate that Tate isn’t running as much. Part of the reason to rein your QB in a bit is for him to avoid too much wear and tear, but Tate was still banged up for half the season, which was a lose-lose.

(If Tate gets hurt again this year, the race for No. 2 QB is more interesting this time around — it again features former head coach Rich Rodriguez’s son Rhett, but it also includes three former high-three-star prospects: redshirt freshmen Jamarye Joiner and Kevin Doyle and true freshman Grant Gunnell.)

Still, Mazzone maintained a lot of Rodriguez’s offensive identity — Arizona was first in FBS in solo tackles created (a decent measure of how much they were spreading defenses out) and 16th in adjusted pace, and they ran more frequently than the national average on both standard and passing downs.

Taylor and backups Gary Brightwell, Bam Smith, and Nathan Tilford should give Mazzone plenty of backfield options even if Tate is still leashed to the pocket, and if Tate is healthy enough to punish a wrong-footed defender once or twice a quarter, that could work out quite well.

Still, Mazzone likes a hint of balance. Continuity in the passing game is typically a huge driver of improvement or regression in Off. S&P+, but I’m curious if that applies here. While Shun Brown, Shawn Poindexter, and Tony Ellison did combine for 59 percent of Arizona’s targets last year (and while Poindexter was the only proven receiver taller than 5’11), last year’s backups really did post pretty good numbers when given the opportunity.

While I wasn’t sure what to think about the Mazzone hire, I knew I didn’t like Sumlin’s decisions to retain Marcel Yates, with whom he’d worked at Texas A&M, as defensive coordinator. Rodriguez had hired Yates in 2016 to bring energy to the defense and recruiting, but UA had ranked 88th and 101st in Def. S&P+ in his first two seasons.

With far greater continuity and experience than before (despite the loss of Whittaker to injury), Yates did upgrade the Wildcats’ ranking to 74th. That’s something.

Arizona’s biggest remaining problem: closing the deal. The Wildcats ranked 32nd in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), and 57 percent of opponents’ third downs were third-and-7 or longer (10th most in FBS). But they allowed a 32 percent success rate on said third-and-longs (120th in FBS). And in a slightly different category — blitz downs (second-and-super-long or third-and-5 or more) — they were 121st in success rate, 125th in big-play rate, and 123rd in sack rate. Bad.

Until the blitz improves, all other concerns are secondary. Schooler is unbelievable against the run, but his 3.5 sacks shouldn’t have tied for the team lead (with end JB Brown).

The good news, as it were, is that the rush probably won’t get worse. Derek Boles and PJ Johnson are both gone up front, but while they combined for 20 run stuffs, they also had only 4.5 sacks. Everybody else is back, but if JUCO tackles Myles Tapusoa or Trevon Mason were able to provide a push up the middle in pass rush situations, or if sophomore edge rusher Jalen Harris were able to find an extra gear or two, that would be immensely helpful.

If there’s at least a little pressure, everything else looks decent. Schooler will anchor a good linebacking corps, and Brown, Wilborn, end Jalen Harris, and tackle Finton Connolly all demonstrated decent run-stuffing ability.

I like the secondary to improve a good amount. Corner Lorenzo Burns was asked to cover a lot of really good receivers in Whittaker’s absence and finished the year with two TFLs and 11 breakups. With Whittaker back, he could get easier matchups. And while Jerrius Wallace is solid in big-play prevention, fellow safeties Scottie Young Jr. and Tristan Cooper are active (combined: four TFLs, three INTs, nine breakups, five run stuffs).

There’s an intriguing set of sophomores in the back, too, in safeties Xavier Bell and Christian Young and corner McKenzie Barnes.

Arizona was mostly forgettable in special teams, but that’s not always bad. The Wildcats were strong on kickoffs and ranked between 63rd and 74th in four of five efficiency categories. Kickoffs guy Lucas Havrisik was all over the place as a place-kicker — he missed two PATs but made three longer field goals, too — and he’s the only returning leg. J.J. Taylor’s got some upside in the return game.

Despite an awkward transition and Tate playing on only one good leg for half the year, Arizona still ranked 43rd in Off. S&P+ and improved defensively. There were reasons to be encouraged by how the Wildcats played late in the year, at least until the fourth quarter against ASU.

Because of returning production, UA is projected to improve again defensively, this time to 55th. An offensive rebound will depend on both Tate’s health and how well intriguing young receivers play in bigger roles.

And yeah, the schedule’s weird. The Wildcats are projected favorites in each of their first five games, but they play five teams projected 32nd or better in their last seven. Bowl hopes could hinge on early home games against Texas Tech and UCLA (and I really wouldn’t recommend losing at Hawaii in Week 0).

All 2019 preview data to date.