As ridiculous as it now sounds, the Fighting Irish initially appeared to be a really tough draw for the ACC champions. Notre Dame’s defense was spearheaded by first round defensive tackle Jerry Tillery, experienced linebackers Te’Von Coney and Drue Tranquill, and free safety Alohi Gilman, who had 94 tackles on the year, regularly in run support.
How Trevor Lawrence can be even more dangerous in year 2
That playoff run could’ve been just a tease.
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
Finding room to run the ball, Clemson’s specialty on the year (No. 2 in yards per carry), was going to be tough. The Tide looked even tougher.
Instead, Trevor Lawrence took the wheel. On third-down pass attempts in Clemson’s two playoff games, the freshman went 14-of-23 with 343 yards at 14.9 ypa with three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 13 first downs. Total domination.
The title game’s flow has sparked a lot of debate over whether the Tigers are really now that far ahead of Alabama and how replicable their stunning third down success will be in future games.
But what if the question isn’t whether the Tigers’ third down offense was a fluke, but whether it’s their new normal?
For much of the season, Lawrence’s main job was to execute RPOs to keep defenses from loading the box to stop Travis Etienne.
Lawrence did so with harder throws than your typical spread QB ...
... but he was primarily an adjunct to Etienne.
For the last few years, Clemson has mostly been an 11 personnel team, using a tight end alongside three receivers. TEs can boost the spread run game and offer schematic versatility.
In the Tigers’ previous championship appearances, they had Jordan Leggett. He wasn’t a particularly hard-nosed blocker, but he was an exceptional receiver who could punish the Tide and clear up the picture for Deshaun Watson, based on how Saban contorted his schemes to address Leggett’s size on the perimeter. The 2017-18 Tigers leaned more on Milan Richards, a 6’2/250-pound blocker who generally flexed out only to allow Clemson to play matchup games with more threatening receivers.
For third downs and two-minute offense in 2018’s playoff run, Clemson had to lean on a different package. They’d play 10 personnel (one RB, zero TEs) and get Tee Higgins, Amari Rodgers, Justyn Ross, and Hunter Renfrow on the field together.
Without a TE blocking in the run game, this invited Notre Dame and Alabama to get more exotic with their pass defense packages. But on third-and-14 that didn’t much matter:
Against Notre Dame, the Tigers hunted safety Gilman from these 10 personnel sets. They’d line up with a slot (either Ross or Renfrow) to the boundary, where Notre Dame parked the run-supporting safety, then they’d pick on his inability to flip his hips on vertical routes. In the above clip, he guessed Ross was aiming to win inside for a first down, only to watch the freshman blow by him on a go route. On this play, he bit on a Renfrow double move:
Alabama tried to handle the Tigers with two-deep coverages, as Notre Dame had, and was victimized on third down to even greater extents.
Look at how simple this process was for Lawrence. The Tide have to figure out how to match up to Richard, Renfrow, and Rodgers on one side of the field. They respond by shading the free safety (Gilman’s position) to that side, leaving their corner one-on-one vs Ross. Lawrence almost has the ball out as soon as he’s completed his drop.
Probably, the Tide shouldn’t have shaded help to cover a Clemson tight end, but there’s little margin for error when a team is attacking you with multiple vertical threats.
Later on that drive, Clemson motioned Renfrow to the boundary before zipping a flag route past him to Ross against overmatched freshman corner Josh Jobe.
Lawrence’s ability to see everything unfolding and hit accurate throws deep is on another level. Guys like Ross give him a margin for error that he often doesn’t need. Once again Ross pulled in a one-handed catch, but at some point, you have to wonder if that’s just what the sophomore-to-be can offer regularly. Clemson has a knack for moving him around to hunt the weak spots before hitting him in high-pressures scenarios:
Both Notre Dame and Alabama also had starting cornerbacks sustain injuries, which exacerbated the issue. And when Clemson is putting that many star receivers on the field, who has the depth to keep up?
The Tigers had four features they’ll need to replace.
Left tackle Mitch Hyatt helping protect Lawrence, Hunter “third and...” Renfrow, RB Adam Choice boosting the pass protection, and probably outside receiver Rodgers, who tore an ACL during spring practice.
At left tackle, the Tigers have former five-star sophomore Jackson Carman (6’5, 340) joining four returning starters. Star RB Etienne will be a junior and better prepared to offer something in pass protection or flexed-out as yet another problem on the perimeter. At receiver, the Tigers have perhaps the best track record of consistency. In spring, senior receiver Cornell Powell looked ready to emerge as a dependable option in the middle.
They have extra flexibility from the fact that while Ross is exceptional at winning deep balls, he can line up in a variety of alignments. With his ability to run routes from outside or the slot, combined with Lawrence’s cannon arm, there’s nowhere to hide a weak coverage defender.
The scariest question is what will happen when hunting matchups for Ross becomes a more regular component. Ross “only” caught 46 balls for 1,000 yards and nine scores in 2018, and 12 of those catches came in the playoffs, producing 301 yards and three scores. What does this offense look like if he catches 80 balls?
It’s entirely possible that the playoff passing game was merely a forerunner. Clemson’s ability to spread the field with receivers who can’t be covered solo, combined with Lawrence’s ability to hit them in stride, doesn’t have easy solutions.
Back in 2016, Deshaun Watson threw 579 passes for 4,593 yards at 7.9 ypa with 41 TDs and 17 INT. In 2018, Lawrence threw just 397 passes for 3,280 yards at 8.3 ypa with 30 TDs to four INT. What could Clemson do with Lawrence throwing 35 times a game, rather than just 26?
The age of blue-chip teams running hurry-up spread offenses with pro-caliber skill players is still young. We might not really know what’s realistically sustainable in this new era. There’s a chance that Lawrence’s absurd third down production in the playoff wasn’t just a timely break, but a peek into the future.
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