College Football Playoff ranking: What to expect from committee’s first 2022 rankings

The first College Football Playoff rankings are going to be released on Tuesday, and this year the rankings could possibly look a bit different. With the Alabama Crimson Tide seemingly being on the outside looking in this year initially, more teams could be included in the initial playoff rankings. The College Football Playoff committee normally chooses around eight teams that they believe can challenge for the four spots in the playoff for now, so this initial ranking could give insight into what the committee values this year.

Here’s what you should be watching out for when the rankings come out on Tuesday.

We know who the first three teams in the initial College Football Playoff is going to be, that’s for sure. Georgia has hovered between first and second in the AP rankings the entire year and probably hasn’t played their best football all season. Tennessee and Ohio State have the explosive offenses and opportunistic defenses that has kept them undefeated, and in the AP rankings both tied for second. That’s three teams we know will be in the first playoff dance.

The fourth team? Well, that’s where it gets interesting. There are possibly four teams vying for that one spot in the playoff right now: Michigan, Clemson, TCU and Alabama. Alabama is most likely to be the first team out of the race. Last year they lost before the initial playoff rankings came out as well, but they also destroyed every other team they played outside of a road loss to Texas A&M. The Tide have the road loss to Tennessee this year, but have also scraped by against Texas and Arkansas, both on the road.

TCU is presumably the next team that will be eliminated from contention. Despite being undefeated in a (/whispers) best conference in football Big 12, they continue to try and bury themselves in a deeper hole in the first half of games before coming to life in the second half. That being said, they have beaten four teams that were ranked when they played them, and in a Big 12 that is both competitive and good, that should mean something. Will the committee respect the depth of the Big 12 though? We’ll see.

This leaves us with our final two competitors: Clemson and Michigan. Michigan has the more impressive best win by far, a drubbing of Penn State at home. The Wolverines also have the higher SP+ ranking as of Oct. 30. However, the case against Michigan is in a weakened Big Ten, the Wolverines have coasted with only facing one true competitive opponent. For Clemson, despite having a lower SP+ than UCLA and not having a signature win, could possibly pass the eye test, something the committee has valued. They’ve handled a majority of their opponents thoroughly, and their win against NC State at home with their starting QB healthy could mean something. That race for the final playoff spot is extremely interesting, and could heat up even more as Clemson coasts to the finish line, Michigan lies in wait for The Game and TCU goes through the hellscape known as the Big 12.

This year has felt different than years in the past, partially because there isn’t a standout Group of Five team this year. Cincinnati is weaker than previous years, and coming off a loss to UCF probably won’t be seeing the top 25 anytime soon. You can’t really feel comfortable about the Citronauts either, considering their inability to have a consistent downfield passing game and the injury to starting QB John Rhys Plumlee.

Right now, the AP poll has the highest ranked Group of Five team as Tulane, followed by UCF. Right now, SP+ has UCF ahead of Tulane, but both are behind Cincinnati still. Nov. 12 looms large for both teams, because the Golden Knights travel to Tulane in what could be one of the most important G5 games this season.

Outside of the AAC, no G5 team has really separated themselves. The only non-AAC teams that received votes in this week’s poll are Coastal Carolina and UTSA, and neither of those teams can seem to capture the magic they had in previous years. The Chanticleers don’t have as explosive of an offense to supplement a defense that’s struggled, and UTSA is dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball.

The late race to the finish for the G5 could go a long way in the CFP, with the conference titles presumably deciding who gets the New Year’s Six bid.

So, let me get this out the way: The Pac-12 might be the most top heavy conference in the Power Five. In this week’s AP poll the top four teams are all clustered together, with Oregon leading the way at 8. This year, the top two teams get the bid to the Pac-12 title game regardless of division, but picking out the top two among Oregon, USC, UCLA and Utah might be difficult. The Bruins have the head to head win over Utah and the loss to Oregon, Oregon hasn’t lost in the conference yet, USC has the loss to Utah and has to play UCLA at the end of the year and Utah has the victory over USC but the loss to UCLA still.

Right now, SP+ has Oregon as a top 10 team, but will the committee only see the top four teams then a steep drop off after that? Right now, the AP has Oregon State ranked outside of those top four Pac-12 teams, but how does the committee see a team like Oregon who has dominated their competition outside of a week one pasting in a neutral site game, against the number one team in football? If anything, Oregon should be considered among the few teams that can make the playoff right now, but the Pac-12 isn’t exactly prime competition.

The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday, Nov. 1. ESPN will have coverage of the rankings starting at 7:00 pm ET.