When preparing for a fantasy football draft, fans often try to determine who will be overrated and who will be underrated based on the previous season’s performance. Whether discussing strength of schedule, an unexpected healthy year (see Taylor, Fred), or any other unexpected occurrence, there are a variety of factors that can create a sort of fantasy bubble around a given player that can be expected to burst the following season.
2011 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Why Touchdowns Do Not Always Make ‘The Man’
Fantasy football draft strategy can take on many forms. One of the consistent theories year-in and year-out is keeping an eye on touchdown totals and looking for outliers. Vernon Davis is a solid example of this.
One of the easiest “bubbles” to use is that of touchdowns scored. There are certain players that always seem to score touchdowns. However, each season there is often an outlier that scored an abnormal amount of touchdowns and is accordingly overrated the following season.
A recent example of that would be 49ers tight end Vernon Davis. After getting booted off the field by Mike Singletary in 2008, the light bulb flipped on in Davis' head in 2009 and he finally realized the immense talent he brought to the NFL. In 2009, Davis led all tight ends in fantasy scoring thanks largely to a record-tying 13 touchdowns. He put up 965 receiving yards, but the touchdowns propelled him to the top.
In 2010, Davis put together another Pro Bowl season, but his touchdown totals dropped from 13 to 7, which cost him 36 points right off the top. He remained a top three tight end, but the point total drop-off removed him from a slightly more elite level of fantasy performance.
Davis remains a strong fantasy tight end but his role in the new Jim Harbaugh offense will be a strong factor in how high fantasy owners are willing to reach for him. The 49ers have added numerous weapons including a big-bodied Braylon Edwards. While Davis will get plenty of looks, could an improved 49ers offense cost him fantasy production?
When you’re facing a tough decision on a pair of draft choices, I strongly recommend checking out the touchdown totals. A guy like Vernon Davis will always be one of the top tight ends selected, but if you’re not sure he’ll come close to matching his 2009 touchdown total, you might be better suited waiting for him to drop a bit rather than building your team around him with a high pick.
See More:
