Over the last few weeks, the folks at Stampede Blue have been tracking Peyton Manning's attempts to rehab his numerous neck woes. Even as Manning has been rehabbing his neck, the Colts took what many would view as a fairly drastic step in signing veteran QB Kerry Collins. Bill Polian made it clear that Collins would be ready to start week one if Manning is not 100%.
2011 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Whither Peyton Manning?
We take a look at Peyton Manning’s 2010 numbers and how much a tougher schedule could impact his numbers in 2011. For more on fantasy football, check out numberfire.com or Fake Teams. For more on the Indianapolis Colts, check out Stampede Blue.
This raises numerous question marks about the fantasy draft value of Peyton Manning. Until recently, Manning has been a quarterback drafted up in the early rounds with the hopes that he’ll connect on some significant touchdown totals. Even as the Colts have dealt with various injuries and turnover, Peyton Manning has remained a steady fantasy rock.
And yet, even before we factor in Manning’s injury, is it possible his 2010 numbers were a bit of a mirage and Manning might not be worth the high draft pick anymore? For fantasy purposes, Manning put up another round of impressive numbers. He equaled his second best TD mark with 33 (matching 2000 and 2009) and he set a career high with 4,700 passing yards. Not too shabby for the now 35-year-old quarterback.
Even without factoring in the injury however, when considering the Colts QB in 2011, a weak schedule in 2010 combined with some opponent improvements in 2011 might give you reason to pause on drafting Manning. The folks at numberFire.com have put together some proprietary statistics that allow them to adjust a player’s performance based on his opponents. Peyton Manning’s general counting statistics ranked fourth among quarterbacks in 2010. However, when adjusted for the fact that he faced nine of the top ten least efficient defenses, Manning’s corrected numbers rank him as the seventh best QB, as opposed to fourth.
Fantasy football fans are probably asking themselves why they should be concerned about this? After all, weak schedule or not, he took care of business week in and week out in 2010. As long as he hits his numbers, why be concerned if he’s playing the equivalent of Our Lady’s Sisters of the Poor?
Well, when you look at some of the teams he'll be facing in 2011, those weak defenses might not be quite as available. A perfect example would be the Houston Texans. In the Colts-Texans season opener, Manning was 40-for-57 for 433 yards and three touchdowns. In week eight, he was 26-for-45 for 268 yards with two touchdowns.
Assuming Manning is even able to play week one, Houston has beefed up its defense considerably. The additions of J.J. Watt on the defensive line and Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning will provide a better defense that could cause serious problems for AFC offenses. Aside from just worrying about fantasy points, Colts fans might have bigger problems with their division title.
All of this isn’t to say Peyton Manning is not worth a starting nod when healthy. Rather, it’s simply a matter of making sure not to draft the Colts QB too high. I’d suspect we’ll see his per game numbers come down a bit even once he’s back to full health...whenever that happens. If he really was the beneficiary of significantly inefficient defenses in 2010, it’s simply one more point to keep in the back of your head as you’re sorting through your fantasy quarterbacks.
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