Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 11: Jets vs. Bills

The Jets have been surprisingly good, while the Bills have been depressingly bad. We take a look at who might have good performances this week.

by Daniel Kelley

Nov 17, 2013, 12:45 PM UTC

Andy Lyons

The New York Jets are 1-3 on the road this season but 4-1 at home. They have alternated wins and losses all year, and are coming off a win. So the question, as they travel to Buffalo for a 1 p.m. ET game at the division rival Buffalo Bills, is whether the Jets can buck either of those trends in Week 11. Fantasy owners wonder whether any of the Jets' middling names will offer big production:

Jets

Start in every league: Nick Folk, Defense/special teams

Start if you're desperate: Chris Ivory

Bench: Geno Smith, Bilal Powell, Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill, Santonio Holmes, Zach Sudfeld

The entire list of kickers averaging more fantasy points per game than Folk: Stephen Gostkowski. That’s it. Folk has been perfect on the season, and there’s no real reason to expect that to stop until it does. ... The Jets’ defense hasn’t been great this year, averaging five points a game, but they had eight in their last game against the Bills, and Buffalo is likely to be without several of its weapons this week, or have hobbled versions of those weapons. This defense could be a sneaky play.

Ivory has had huge games in two of his last three outings, with two different hundred-yard games and a touchdown. On the other hand, in between those two, he had six rushes for 11 yards, and was averaging barely three yards a carry before getting 7.7 on 18 carries in his last game. He’s inconsistent, always an injury risk, and the Bills are eighth-best in the NFL against opposing running backs. Ivory is likely to be the No. 1, but he’s far from a guarantee.

In the Jets’ five wins, Smith is averaging 18 fantasy points. In their four losses, it’s four. And, as mentioned above, those have been alternating outings. No player in the NFL has been less consistent. At his best, he’s been very good, but you can’t go into any match expecting it. ... If Ivory gets hurt or struggles, Powell has had big games this season, but he hasn’t topped 40 rushing yards since Week 4. There’s a chance, sure, but not much of one. ... Kerley, Hill, Holmes, Sudfeld, and the rest of the Jets’ legion of averageness among pass-catchers are varying degrees of subpar and hurt, and anyone starting any of them is likely looking ahead to next season already.

Bills

Start in every league: Fred Jackson

Start if you're desperate: C.J. Spiller, Dan Carpenter, Defense/special teams

Bench: E.J. Manuel, Stevie Johnson, Robert Woods

Only Jamaal Charles, Frank Gore, and Matt Forte have more double-digit fantasy outings than Jackson, and he is top-15 in fantasy points per game played, and that despite playing behind Spiller in part of the season. The Jets have been phenomenal against running backs, but Jackson should still get his.

Spiller appears to be fully healthy (or as close to that as he gets) this week, but his touches have been falling behind Jackson, and quotes from the coaching staff this week indicate they aren’t really happy with him. He was taken in the first round of fantasy drafts this year, so not many rosters can afford to bench him, but he’s been disappointing. ... Carpenter has been fine, with only one missed field goal since Week 2, but he just doesn’t accumulate. He’s a so-so option. ... You like a unit facing the Jets, but the Bills’ defense has been wildly inconsistent, with its best game:16 points in Week 7, sandwiched between two zero-point games.

Manuel had double-digit games in each of his first three games, then has averaged barely six points a game in his starts since. He looked pretty poor last week, and whether that is on him or his supporting cast, neither has changed this week. ... Woods has been ruled out for Sunday's game, and Johnson appears likely to join him. In their stead, maybe Marquise Goodwin or T.J. Graham is productive, but it's hard to expect much.