Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 12: Broncos vs. Patriots
It’s pretty obviously Week 12’s premier matchup, with enticing storylines all over. Fantasy relevance, real-life relevance, and grudge matches galore.
NBC executives must have been waiting all week for Sunday night this week, as Sunday Night Football could see its biggest ratings all year. The 9-1 Denver Broncos travel to Massachusetts to face the 7-3 New England Patriots at 8:30 p.m. ET, in a game that could matter in the AFC West, the AFC East, home-field advantage, overall power rankings, the history books' considerations of the two quarterbacks, and, of course, fantasy matchups:
Broncos
Start in every league: Peyton Manning, Knowshon Moreno, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Matt Prater
Start if you're desperate: Montee Ball, Julius Thomas
Bench: Defense/special teams
There are players who you wonder whether you should start, then there are guys like Manning, Moreno, Thomas, Welker, and Prater, who all rank in the top 10 at their positions in fantasy scoring. Welker has given fantasy owners some worries this week with injury concerns, but was upgraded to likely Friday, and seems almost certain to go. There’s no reason to stay away. ... Decker hasn’t scored in three weeks, and in some ways has been the forgotten man in the Denver offense, but with the tight end Thomas banged up, Decker’s stock is still just high enough to be a must-start.
Ball has seen his usage increase in recent games, with his two highest-scoring fantasy days coming in his last three games. The team is working him into the rotation, as the rookie gets more adept in the offense and the team guards against Moreno injury, but fantasy owners should hold off another week or so to be sure. ... It might not be known whether Thomas is going to play until right before the game starts, and with the only viable pickup at that point being his unimpressive backups -- Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen -- fantasy owners would do well to go ahead and roll with a backup.
The Broncos’ defense hasn’t been great this season outside of a game or two, and facing a strong Patriots’ offense is not the way to move back up the list.
Patriots
Start in every league: Tom Brady, Shane Vereen, Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, Stephen Gostkowski
Start if you're desperate: Stevan Ridley, Aaron Dobson
Bench: Brandon Bolden, LeGarrette Blount, Kenbrell Thompkins, Julian Edelman, Defense/special teams
Man, that was a lot of names. Anyway, there have been just under 45.5 points scored per non-Broncos game this season; there have been 65.3 points scored per Broncos game. It’s simply a different sport when Denver is involved, and it’s hard to imagine weather changes that. As such, guys like Brady, Vereen, Amendola, and Gronkowski -- all of whom would be must-starts in most weeks anyway -- become super-must-starts against the Broncos. ... Gostkowski, too, is already fantasy’s No. 2 kicker, and this week only helps him.
Ridley would probably have been in the above list as well, if not for his fumbling issues. Bill Belichick put him back in after his fumble a week ago, but with a full week to work on his offense and Vereen another week back from injury, there’s always the chance the Patriots keep the ball away from Ridley. ... Dobson has games of 11, 12, and 25 fantasy points, but hasn’t topped six otherwise. With so many other mouths to feed, he’s too boom-or-bust to trust.
Bolden and Blount could see their touches increase if the team decides Ridley’s fumbling issues are too troublesome, but until that happens, which one do you trust, if either? Stay away for now. ... Thompkins got back on the field a week ago, but hasn’t been fantasy relevant for an entire game since Week 4. ... Edelman has done even less in fantasy than Thompkins, and is maybe the eighth-best fantasy option New England has. ... Fantasy defenses average negative scoring against Denver on the season; sorry, Patriots’ defense, but it’s hard to imagine you are the ones to buck that trend.
• Week 12 fantasy football position rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
