In the offseason, I wrote a series of fantasy previews about all 32 teams. To start most of them, I spent some time diving into the numbers, finding an interesting tidbit about each team.
The Ticker, Week 7: The fantasy waiver wire, with stocks and charts
It’s like I’m a real financial guy this week. And you can tell I am by my use of the highly technical phrase “real financial guy.”
Spencer Platt
They weren't always meaningful numbers. Sometimes, it was just something that grabbed my attention -- like when I tracked just how "stars-and-scrubs" Washington was in 2013, or noted that the Cowboys' skill positions had undergone almost no change in recent seasons -- that inspired me to talk about the given team for a bit. They were just my own personal column icebreakers.
But I had fun with them. So in this week’s Ticker, I’m brushing off my old crutch and finding eye-catching statistics about the players I’m discussing. Sometimes they’ll be meaningful. Sometimes they’ll just be something to get me talking. But it’ll be interesting.
(Also, I will then stop doing that about the last two categories, because once I start highlighting guys who have barely done anything, what statistical oddities am I really going to find? Still, for four categories, it’s gonna be sweet.)
New to The Ticker? It’s my guided tour through the waiver wire, with a stock-market angle. There are six categories:
Stocks I’m buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I believe it
Stocks I’m not buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I don’t believe it
Stocks I’m selling: high-owned players who struggled, and I’m bailing on them a bit
Stocks I’m not selling: high-owned players who struggled, but I still trust them
Hedges: handcuffs; low-owned guys who have a starter in front of them, but injuries or starter awfulness could change things
Futures market: low-owned guys without an obvious line to fantasy productivity yet, but there are things that could change in that department
(All ownership percentages are as of Monday morning.)
Stocks I’m buying
Carson Palmer, QB, ARI (30 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues)
The following chart shows the completion percentage of Arizona quarterbacks when throwing to Larry Fitzgerald or Michael Floyd by game:
| Receptions | Targets | Completion Percentage | |
| W1 | 6 | 11 | 54.5 |
| W2 | 7 | 16 | 43.8 |
| W3 | 8 | 16 | 50 |
| W5 | 4 | 14 | 28.6 |
| W6 | 10 | 13 | 76.9 |
In case you haven't monitored, Palmer was the Arizona quarterback in Weeks 1 and 6, with Drew Stanton (and, briefly, Logan Thomas) in the other three. John Brown has been exciting, sure. John Carlson also exists. But if the Cardinals are going to remain contenders for the full year, it will be because of Fitzgerald and Floyd at wide receiver. Palmer connects with them, literally and otherwise. As long as he stays healthy, he's a good QB2, and could start in certain weeks. Enjoy him.
Brandon LaFell, WR, NE (6 percent)
The chart this time is the fantasy production of the best wide receivers in terms of points per game in which they were targeted at least once:
| Player | Fantasy PPG |
| Antonio Brown | 15.3 |
| Jordy Nelson | 14.8 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 14.6 |
| A.J. Green | 13.7 |
| Steve Smith Sr. | 12.8 |
| Julio Jones | 12.5 |
| Randall Cobb | 12.2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 12 |
| Brandon LaFell | 11 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 11 |
It's a silly shorthand that ignores some external factors, sure. But in games when the Patriots have utilized LaFell at all, he's been one of the top 10 fantasy receivers. Yes, it's boom or bust -- his fantasy scoring by game has been 4-17-2-21 -- but a player who has two games like that in three weeks should be more owned than he is.
Scott Chandler, TE, BUF (2 percent)
So Kyle Orton is the Bills' quarterback now, yeah? What does that mean for the targets of the team's offensive players? This chart marks the targets per game of the top weapons with EJ Manuel and with Orton:
| Sammy Watkins | Robert Woods | Fred Jackson | C.J. Spiller | Scott Chandler | |
| With Manuel | 8 | 7.25 | 6 | 2.5 | 3 |
| With Orton | 7.5 | 7 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
Not much changed across the board, except for the tight end, who has seen more than double the targets now that Orton is at the helm. It’s why, out of our rankers, I’ve rated Chandler the highest the last two weeks, and it’s why I think he’ll be relevant going forward.
Stocks I’m not buying
Storm Johnson, RB, JAC (19 percent)
Somehow, we have a popular Jaguar on the waiver wire? That can’t be real. This chart is the average yards per carry of the two primary Jacksonville running backs so far:
| Toby Gerhart | Storm Johnson | |
| W1 | 2.3 | DNP |
| W2 | 1.1 | DNP |
| W3 | 3.6 | DNP |
| W4 | 3.2 | DNP |
| W5 | 2.3 | 6.8 |
| W6 | DNP | 2.1 |
Johnson didn’t play before Week 5; Gerhart didn’t play in Week 6. Those numbers all look a lot alike with the exception of that 6.8, which was last week when Johnson ran for 27 yards on four carries. Of course, it was one 20-yard carry, plus 7 yards on three carries, or ... 2.3 yards a carry. Gerhart isn’t this bad. Johnson might be decent too. But the Jacksonville offensive line means that no running back on that team is going to be worth anything.
Louis Murphy, WR, TAM (2 percent)
I won’t even be complicated here:
| Murphy targets | |
| W1 | 0 |
| W2 | 0 |
| W3 | 0 |
OK, that's mean, but come on. This guy was unemployed four weeks ago. Yeah, since then he has more than 10 fantasy points a game, which is nice, but ignores the fact that one of those games was played sans Mike Evans, and another was played with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson at less than 100 percent. I'm far from convinced that Murphy will continue to produce when his teammates are at full capacity, and with a bye week coming up, they have two weeks to heal up.
Damaris Johnson, WR, HOU (0 percent)
Perhaps I'm not going in great depth here, but it is what it is. Targets by game of the Texans' top two receivers, plus this interloper:
| Andre Johnson | DeAndre Hopkins | Damaris Johnson | |
| W1 | 9 | 5 | 3 |
| W2 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| W3 | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| W4 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| W5 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
| W6 | 12 | 2 | 3 |
All three guys have seen their target numbers stay largely consistent, with the one exception of Hopkins’ awful game Thursday. So I’m calling that the aberration, not the fact that Damaris Johnson was suddenly able to gather a bunch of yards when he never could before. This entry is more “I still believe in Hopkins” than anything, but I was out of room in the “not selling” section.
Stocks I’m selling
Keenan Allen, WR, SD (97 percent)
OK, maybe Allen has just faced some adept defenses, right? Maybe he’s gone against teams that know how to shut down the opposition’s top receiver. Those exist. So let’s look at Allen’s yards, and the average yards his opponents have allowed against other teams’ top receiving options:
| Yards to Allen | YPG to opponent's No. 1 | |
| Arizona | 37 | 125.6 |
| Seattle | 55 | 85.3 |
| Buffalo | 17 | 87.8 |
| Jacksonville | 135 | 71.4 |
| NY Jets | 25 | 120 |
| Oakland | 27 | 66.8 |
Well, that didn’t work. I really want to believe in Allen, but I’m running out of reasons to do so. (And if you want to argue that Allen isn’t his team’s top receiver and therefore doesn’t compare ... well, that answers the question, too, I think.)
Wes Welker, WR, DEN (93 percent)
Let’s just look at targets, yeah? Since joining New England, this is Welker’s targets per game by season:
| Welker's targets per game | |
| 2007 | 9.06 |
| 2008 | 9.31 |
| 2009 | 11.57 |
| 2010 | 8.2 |
| 2011 | 10.81 |
| 2012 | 10.88 |
| 2013 | 8.54 |
| 2014 | 6.33 |
Yeah, it’s three games, and Welker’s numbers are artificially lowered by his one target Sunday. Then again, Sunday was Welker’s first one-target game since Week 16 of 2005 ... when he was with Miami. Heck, Welker hadn’t had a game of fewer than five targets since Week 11 of 2011. He’s no longer a starting receiver most weeks, at least until his usage pops back up.
Stocks I’m not selling
Alfred Morris, RB, WAS (98 percent)
OK, so some running backs are matchup-proof. DeMarco Murray, for example, is someone you're running out there no matter what -- at least, until the Cowboys give him so many carries that various body parts start falling off. But some are more conditional. Take a look at Morris' fantasy scoring per game, as well as the opponents' ranking in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs:
| Morris' fantasy production | Fantasy | |
| Houston | 9 | 17 |
| Jacksonville | 20 | 2 |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 14 |
| NY Giants | 14 | 9 |
| Seattle | 2 | 32 |
| Arizona | 5 | 26 |
As we know, Morris is not DeMarco Murray. Noted. His production is very matchup dependent. But when he has a favorable matchup, he knows how to exploit it. And you probably got him as your RB2, not your RB1, so there’s nothing wrong with that at that level.
Eli Manning, QB, NYG (76 percent)
As I mentioned in Monday’s Worst of Week 6 piece, I feel like we’re going to discover in 20 years that Manning has been some Joaquin Phoenix-esque performance art, because it’s the only explanation for his career. Still, I had the thought that Manning simply doesn’t have three good games in a row in him. Here, look at some of the best two-game stretches from each season of Manning’s career, and what he did the next week:
| Year | YPG | TD per game | INT per game | Fantasy PPG |
| 2005 (good) | 281 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 20 |
| 2005 (bad) | 152 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 2006 (good) | 323 | 3 | 2 | 20.5 |
| 2006 (bad) | 256 | 1 | 0 | 14 |
| 2007 (good) | 261.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 18 |
| 2007 (bad) | 232 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2008 (good) | 169 | 2.5 | 1 | 14 |
| 2008 (bad) | 153 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 2009 (good) | 299.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 20.5 |
| 2009 (bad) | 230 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 2010 (good) | 212 | 2.5 | 2 | 14 |
| 2010 (bad) | 386 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 2011 (good) | 370.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 21 |
| 2011 (bad) | 292 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| 2012 (good) | 269.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 18.5 |
| 2012 (bad) | 161 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 2013 (good) | 406 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 19 |
| 2013 (bad) | 119 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2014 (good) | 250 | 3 | 0.5 | 21 |
| 2014 (bad) | 151 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Two good games? Check. Third one? Yuck. Even when Manning was unquestionably good, he just couldn’t put together strings. But he always bounced back (except last year). I think Sunday was just one of his occasional blips.
Hedges
James White, RB, NE (3 percent)
(Moment of silence for my fun charts.)
With Stevan Ridley now done for the year, Brandon Bolden is going to be the popular pickup, with everyone assuming it'll go from "Ridley and Shane Vereen" to "Bolden and Vereen." But do we really have a lot to learn about Bolden at this point? He had one huge games two seasons ago, and has been a very quiet occasional player since. Meanwhile, the Patriots -- who have a history of using any and everybody at running back -- spent a fourth-round pick on White this year. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that it's actually "White and Vereen" within the next couple of weeks.
Jarvis Landry, WR, MIA (2 percent)
A year ago, the Dolphins used Brandon Gibson and Rishard Matthews as third receivers. Gibson was looking strong before he got hurt, while Matthews couldn't put much together. But it was clear then, and is now, that the Dolphins aren't content with a "Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline" passing attack. Wallace is fine; Hartline is unremarkable. This year, Landry, the second-round pick, is the one they're looking to, and as his targets increase, so does his success. For now, he's just someone to monitor, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up much more relevant than that later on.
Futures market
Jace Amaro, TE, NYJ (2 percent)
In a normal tight end season, I probably wouldn't even bother here. But with Jimmy Graham hurt, and most of the tight ends who went fifth through 10th or so in drafts being underwhelming so far, a lot of people are scrambling right now. And, after being underwhelming himself through five games (11 total fantasy points), Amaro's usage leapt up Sunday, with 10 receptions on 12 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. Is that a sign of things to come? "Maybe" is the best I can give you, but on a team without a lot of weapons, Amaro is at least part of one. And at a position that frankly stinks right now, that's more than a lot can say.
Zach Mettenberger, QB, TEN (0 percent)
Admittedly, the part of me that writes about fantasy hopes this never happens, because I have yet to write "Mettenberger" without accidentally adding an "r," and making it "Metternberger." I don't even know why. But whatever. Jake Locker is a free agent after this season and can't stay healthy. Charlie Whitehurst most certainly isn't the future in Tennessee. The Titans are 2-4, and one of those wins was over the Jaguars, so it barely counts. In short, they're done for this year. Why not see what Mettenberger can do?
