The Ticker, Week 8: The weird-week waiver wire

Week 7 was weird. Sammy Watkins scored 22 more fantasy points than he had the week before. Giovani Bernard scored 20 fewer. One team (the Bills) lost two starting running backs. Another (the Rams) now has three?

I picked Baldwin up as soon as news of the Percy Harvin trade came down Friday, because I had a fungible roster spot and it couldn't hurt to explore a new piece of the Seattle offense. So I get, like, half-credit for predicting Baldwin's seven catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's surprising loss by the Seahawks to the St. Louis Rams. While this will be close to Baldwin's high-water mark the rest of the way, he's a perfectly fine WR3 most weeks. Paul Richardson also will have relevance in the Seattle offense, and Zach Miller will be back on the field eventually as well, but Baldwin is the primary Seattle pass-catcher you want, and it isn't close.

I like seeing a running back go for 127 yards when he has an awful offensive line. I like seeing a running back get 22 of his team's 28 running-back carries. And I like 18 fantasy points out of a first-time starter. But what I like most about Denard Robinson is the four letters just after his name an inch or so up from here. "RB/WR." Robinson is, like Dexter McCluster in Kansas City back in the day, eligible at two positions, at least in some game providers (check yours). And unlike McCluster, Robinson actually has a starting gig. I don't think the Jacksonville offensive line has magically repaired itself, so it's hard to project Robinson to do anything like this again. But if you're in a league that starts two running backs and three receivers (instead of 2/2/flex), the ability to use a starting running back at receiver can be a nice perk.

C.J. Spiller is done, probably for the year. Fred Jackson is done, probably for a month. Anthony Dixon exists, sure, but his involvement in the Buffalo offense has been largely because he's a special-teams player, and Brown isn't. With the top two running backs out, I'd bet anything Brown becomes the Bills' bellcow. We saw what kind of yardage he's capable of when he filled in for LeSean McCoy a couple years ago. He needs to be better at holding the ball, but when he's let loose, Brown can really accumulate. He needs to be the week's top pickup (Robinson second), and he's totally startable this week, even against the Jets.

Davante Adams, WR, GB (13 percent)

Tracking the Packers' beatdown of the Panthers on Sunday was fun. It was like Aaron Rodgers had a checklist of players to get a touchdown to. Jordy Nelson was marked off first, then Eddie Lacy and James Starks in short order. Randall Cobb got X'd in the second quarter. The team had one more touchdown in the game, and the next most relevant offensive player with Green Bay is either Adams or Andrew Quarless. Rodgers was Green Bay Santa Claus on Sunday. And as good as he is, and as good as the Green Bay offense is, points will always be scored. But Adams is clearly the fifth option at best, and his touchdown Sunday was his only target of the game. I like his long-term value; I don't like his immediate value.

Jason Witten hasn't done much this year, with 266 yards and a score through seven games. If you drafted him, you were disappointed for however long he stayed on your roster (maybe still). But before Sunday's game, he still had at least five targets every game. Meanwhile, Escobar had two touchdowns Sunday and now has three in two games. That's all great, except that those three touchdowns came on four catches — on five targets. Escobar just isn't a big part of the Dallas offense, and he's not overtaking Witten based on one big three-catch game. Escobar isn't an attractive waiver piece.

I really needed a big game from Andre Ellington on Sunday. And I got one, frankly — he had 160 all-purpose yards against the Raiders. Only ... Ellington never found the end zone. Taylor finished the job both times, with touchdowns from the 2- and 4-yard line. Ellington said after the game Sunday that Ellington called Taylor in for those scores, saying the backup "deserved" it, which ... just makes me sadder, but whatever. Taylor will continue to get occasional goal-line looks, but he's no threat to be replacing Ellington in any significant capacity.

I told you. I told all of you. That early draft pick you spent on the Seattle defense because they were such a sure thing? It was bad strategy from the jump. It never made any sense. But once you had the Seattle defense, well, at least there wasn't anything to worry about, right? Even when Seattle sat at 25 total fantasy points after five games, it was easy to hand-wave that they faced a brutal stretch of offenses (Green Bay, San Diego, Denver, Washington, Dallas) to start the season, and once the schedule got friendlier, things would improve. But after one point against St. Louis on Sunday, and with the injuries mounting, they aren't that sure-fire always-keep-them defense. If the Detroit defense is out there, just to pick a team, or a team going against Jacksonville, I have no issue dropping Seattle. That's what it's come to.

I'm not dropping Davis in any leagues unless I absolutely have to. He's got top-tier upside. But Davis was started Sunday in roughly half of Yahoo! leagues, and that just doesn't make any sense. We're treading lightly on guys like Jimmy Graham, Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green who might be playing but have clear injuries. Davis? Bench him in all leagues. Find another tight end for now. Let him prove he's fully healthy and can do it. You'll miss out on one Davis big game, whenever it happens, but you'll also miss out on his continued struggles. The benefit outweighs the cost.

So, as a Colts fan, Sunday's game was a million kinds of fun. As a central Kentuckian, all my Bengals-fan friends had dramatically different opinions. But a markedly improved Colts defense managed to shut down every aspect of the Bengals offense in Week 7. Moving forward, though, Cincinnati will likely be getting A.J. Green back on the field this week, with tight end Tyler Eifert a possible return two weeks later. Before Sunday, Bernard hadn't put up fewer than seven fantasy points in a game, and was averaging 15.2 points over five games. He'll be fine when defenses have to look around a bit more.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, CHI (100 percent)

The absolute simplest explanation for Sunday's Bears game was "Jay Cutler had one a dem days." Cutler was clearly off all game long, and it showed in the stat line of every player but Matt Forte. Martellus Bennett had 58 yards. Brandon Marshall had 48. Jeffery was the most significant disappointment, with only two catches for only 9 yards. Most significantly, Jeffery's two catches came on Chicago's first two offensive snaps, meaning he went something like 47 minutes of action without any touches, despite five more targets. This after four straight games of double-digit fantasy points. Jeffery will be fine.

I do wonder how much of Cleveland's struggles Sunday can be blamed on Jacksonville, on Brian Hoyer, on "one of those things." Because the biggest difference for Cleveland was the loss of center Alex Mack, who hit injured reserve last week. And if the team's struggles Sunday were because of Mack's absence, then those are struggles that might not be fixed any time soon. And all of that out of the way, Crowell has shown ability to take advantage of his situation, and if Ben Tate's struggles continue and/or he gets hurt again, Crowell would be in line for a lot of work.

Randle is 7 percent owned. DeMarco Murray is 100-percent owned. DeMarco Murray has about 60 more carries than the running back with the second most. And Murray has something of an extensive injury history. If you have Murray, you could have Frank Gore or Steven Jackson or something as your backup. You could stash Charles Sims or Chris Polk or something. But unless and until Murray gets hurt, those guys are largely irrelevant to you. You're stashing guys to not use them. Instead, stash Randle. His upside is right there with all those guys, and he's a guy that you know will be relevant if and when you need him.

Tre Mason, RB, STL (15 percent)

The rookie Mason didn't play at all until Week 6, when he had six touches (five carries and a catch). Then Sunday, he was suddenly the team's leading rusher, with 18 carries. Benny Cunningham had two. Zac Stacy didn't even see the field. Mason is a rookie who appears to be his team's leading running back, and he's only 15 percent owned. I was the highest on Mason in our preseason rankings, under the thinking that he'd certainly be more valuable than Cunningham, but I let that thought drift because sometimes I'm dumb. I'm back now.

I came into the year hedging my bets on Brandin Cooks more than anyone else I saw, and that was in large part because of Stills' existence. This, then, through seven weeks, in games they've played, is the average fantasy scoring for the Saints' receivers: