Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 9
Six teams are on a bye in Week 9, putting owners in a tough spot with their starting lineups. Let’s look at some of the best start/sit options for the weekend.
This is the start of a two-week stint where six teams are on bye. Streaming options are even more valuable over the next two matchups.
Last week's smart starts included Carson Palmer, Sammy Watkins and Greg Jennings, and good sits included Andy Dalton, Bishop Sankey and Travis Kelce. I did throw in Denard Robinson and Mohamed Sanu as sits as well, so there were a few misses.
Let’s take a look at the matchups for Week 9 to see who you should start and sit for this weekend.
Start
QB Colin Kaepernick vs. Rams: Remember how things went in Week 6? Kaerpernick threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns in St. Louis. Now he returns home coming off a bye week. This could get ugly again.
The Rams allow the highest completion percentage in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging the eighth-most fantasy points against this secondary. Russell Wilson rushed for over 100 yards against the Rams in Week 7. Kaepernick can pick up points with his legs or sit back and pick apart St. Louis for the second time in three weeks.
QB Russell Wilson vs. Raiders: Wilson toned it down again to score 13.46 fantasy points in Week 8. He's averaging 13.94 points per game from passing stats, so obviously his last game was more of an outlier.
Since their Week 5 bye, the Raiders have allowed six passing touchdowns with only one interception. Wilson bounced back for huge numbers after a poor Week 6. I’d expect a similar performance against Oakland.
RB Bobby Rainey at Browns: Doug Martin wasn't wearing his walking boot on Thursday, but he still didn't practice. Rainey will presumably get the start on Sunday barring any surprises from Martin's status.
The Browns are giving up 4.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs. We're only two weeks removed from Denard Robinson's 127-yard performance against Cleveland. If Rainey is in the Bucs' starting lineup, he should be in yours.
RB Marshawn Lynch vs. Raiders: Despite posting three straight weeks of fewer than eight points in standard scoring, Lynch is still the RB6 through eight weeks. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 5. That is bound to change in Week 8.
The Raiders give up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They’ve allowed a running back to score in every game but Week 3. It feels odd telling owners they need to start Lynch, but after seeing the level of concern lately, he’s worth discussing. Feel confident about Lynch once again.
*Another RB worth starting: Jeremy Hill. If Giovani Bernard is inactive, Hill instantly becomes a top 10 play against the Jaguars.
WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Eagles: With 20 targets over the past two weeks, Hopkins' stock is trending upward. He now faces the third-worst fantasy defense in Philadelphia. The Eagles have given up 10 touchdowns to wide receivers in 2014.
Hopkins is still behind Andre Johnson in the pecking order, but he's seeing more targets and facing a weak secondary in Week 8. Plus, the Eagles know how to put up points, which could leave Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing more often.
WR Andrew Hawkins vs. Buccaneers: With Jordan Cameron likely to sit out in Week 8, Hawkins maintains an important role in the Browns offense. The Bucs are allowing the most points to opposing wide receivers. Hawkins has seen at least nine targets in all but one game (that Week 5 debacle). Trust the best Browns receiver for Week 9.
TE Travis Kelce vs. Jets: He's not a consistent starter given his number of snaps each week, but Kelce's matchup might be too good to pass up. The Jets gave up nine touchdowns to tight ends in their first eight games. Three tight ends have scored two touchdowns in a single game against New York in 2014. Kelce makes the most of every reception, leading tight ends with 8.9 yards after the catch per reception.
Sit
In 15 games against Cincinnati, Roethlisberger and the Steelers have scored 20-plus points just two times. He's not the streaming option I'm looking for in Week 9.
Any Washington QB at Vikings: Minnesota ranks No. 2 in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Robert Griffin III is healthy enough to play, but Jay Gruden is still deciding if he's "mentally" prepared for game action. I'd be wary of starting Griffin right away, and if he doesn't play, Colt McCoy is clearly not a fantasy option.
RB Jonas Gray vs. Broncos: Denver has allowed the fewest rushing yards in 2014, and it's not even close. Part of that statistic can be credited to Peyton Manning and his offense, as the Broncos have consistently jumped out to big leads and forced opponents to throw. This defense is improved, though.
Gray is stepping into the Stevan Ridley role for the Patriots. With Bill Belichick's tendencies to change his gameplan week-to-week, Gray could easily be phased out. He'll likely be involved, but I wouldn't trust him against this defense.
Any Rams RB at 49ers: Tre Mason and Zac Stacy each took eight touches in Week 8, while Benny Cunningham received five. The workload was almost evenly split in Week 6 when they faced the 49ers, and it's hard to see a change in that strategy going forward.
The Rams would likely benefit from giving one running back a chance to find a rhythm, but since they’ll keep the rotation going against the No. 4 run defense against this position, you should avoid the Rams’ backfield.
WR Vincent Jackson at Browns: Last week Jackson caught one pass on five targets. The week prior he finished with four catches on 13 targets. He's certainly trending in the wrong direction, especially with Mike Evans back in the lineup. As Rich Hribar of XN Sports notes, Jackson averages three receptions per game playing alongside Evans. I'm avoiding the veteran until he proves he's back on track. (Well, on track. He never really got on the track in 2014.)
WR Wes Welker at Patriots: Welker is behind Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas in targets every game. Last week he caught two passes for five yards. Manning might try to work in a touchdown for Welker against his former team, but you can't be on a guy seeing three or fewer targets each game.
TE Heath Miller vs. Ravens: Baltimore has allowed a league-low one touchdown to tight ends. Miller’s break outs have been sporadic in 2014. He has two huge games in Weeks 4 and 8. The rest of the time he’s been a bust. Wait another four weeks for him to breakout again at this rate.
