I figured something out about myself a little while back. See, when Toby Gerhart was in college, I thought he should have won the Heisman. And when he was with Minnesota, I always grabbed him when I had the roster space.
The Ticker, Week 6: Being a sports hipster on the waiver wire
I love these little waiver guys, until they become the big famous guys, and then I suddenly don’t love them anymore. Still, when they’re on the wire, it’s good times.
John Moore
And then in preseason, I kept telling everyone not to draft him.
I’m a sports hipster.
I run into the problem where I like the young, unsung player, the underrated guy, but as soon as he becomes mainstream, I become less enthused. I did it in baseball, years ago. When Rafael Furcal came up, he was this little burner who I thought was just amazing. Years later, he was a regular starter, and I didn’t care for him at all, and it wasn’t until some telecast did a flashback to his MLB debut that I remembered my former love.
This is ultimately meaningless, I think. It’s just an interesting thing about myself that I didn’t realize until I was thinking about Gerhart a while back. But still, he’s terrible. Don’t add him.
It does mean, though, that I’m the right person to run through the waiver wire, digging up unsung players and not-yet-mainstream finds. I’m a big fan, for example, of Branden Oliver, mentioned in last week’s column. That one has paid off already, and I’m enjoying Oliver on my own roster.
Just don’t ask me about him in two years, when he’s a full-time starter and in the mainstream. I’ll surely hate him then.
For those new around here, this is The Ticker for Week 6. It’s my guided tour through the waiver wire, with a stock-market angle. There are six categories:
Stocks I’m buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I believe it
Stocks I’m not buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I don’t believe it
Stocks I’m selling: high-owned players who struggled, and I’m bailing on them a bit
Stocks I’m not selling: high-owned players who struggled, but I still trust them
Hedges: handcuffs; low-owned guys who have a starter in front of them, but injuries or starter awfulness could change things
Futures market: low-owned guys without an obvious line to fantasy productivity yet, but there are things that could change in that department
(All ownership percentages are as of Monday morning.)
Stocks I’m buying
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, NYG (10 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues)
This isn't the most insightful pick to lead off this week's Ticker, but that's beside the point. Beckham made his NFL debut Sunday after missing the first four weeks of the season with a hamstring injury. It was a good, not great debut, with only 44 yards on four catches, but he did find the end zone. Still, the Giants clearly are big on the rookie, going from "he'll have a minimal role" to "more than half the offensive snaps" over the course of last week. This is an offense that, when doing well, could support several offensive weapons a few years ago -- think Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Martellus Bennett -- so there could be touches to be had for Beckham. His usage will grow.
Tim Wright, TE, NE (9 percent)
This is, more or less, what I forecasted for Wright after his trade from Tampa Bay to New England just before the season. Having joined the Patriots less than two weeks before Week 1, Wright didn't have the chance to become a full part of the offense right away. So it took a few weeks for him to grow into his role, leading to Sunday night, when he had five catches for 85 yards and his first touchdown as a Patriot. I don't necessarily expect Wright to become the new Aaron Hernandez, but in an offense that really needs the ability to stretch the field, a giant target like Wright is a tool the Pats will continue to utilize.
Antone Smith, RB, ATL (8 percent)
I noted this in Monday's Sleepers of the Week post, but through five games, Smith has 17 touches, which is ... uninspired. On the other side of the coin, you know, four touchdowns means more fantasy points than every Falcon except Julio Jones and Matt Ryan. He's a big-play monster, with at least nine fantasy points in four of five games. And now the team is (finally?) saying Smith's touches will increase. I don't think he's a fantasy starter by any means, but he's interesting, and I'd definitely take him over Jacquizz Rodgers or Devonta Freeman.
Stocks I’m not buying
Justin Hunter, WR, TEN (45 percent)
So this guy came into Monday night’s War Room, saying he was only there to hear the official SB Nation Fantasy apology for bailing out on Hunter. I had to tell the guy he’d be waiting awhile. Hunter has yet to have more than three receptions in a game this season, with 12 total catches in five games. Thirteen of his 15 fantasy points Sunday came on a single play on busted coverage -- great that he did it sure, but not emblematic of being some tremendous game-breaking player. Even if he is this occasional big-play guy, that’s not someone you can count on in fantasy.
Kenny Britt, WR, STL (6 percent)
As a 25-year-old, Britt had seven total receptions for 70 yards. As a 26-year-old (his birthday was Sept. 19), Britt now has eight receptions for 137 yards and a touchdown. So, sure, the last couple of games have been nice. But on a team that isn't likely to continue having a strong offense, Britt just isn't targeted enough to be a trustworthy weapon -- his 17 targets this season put him 14 behind the 31 of both Brian Quick and Jared Cook. Britt still has the flashy name, but he's at best the No. 4 weapon in the Rams' offense. That is ... much less flashy.
Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, CAR (0 percent)
The Carolina running game isn't getting any better, with Mike Tolbert out for a long while, and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart no locks to return this week. Darrin Reaves wasn't anything special as the team's starter Sunday, with 35 yards on 11 carries. That brought it to Ogbonnaya, whose eight-point fantasy day looks nice, with a touchdown on a 1-yard run. It's easy to remember the reasonable production of Ogbonnaya in 2011, when he filled in for Peyton Hillis in Cleveland and had a couple of big games. But that was when the Browns had no one else. Like, at all. The Panthers don't have much right now, but with Tolbert, Williams, Stewart, Reaves, Ogbonnaya and Fozzy Whittaker, touches will spread around.
Stocks I’m selling
Drew Brees, QB, NO (100 percent)
You’re still starting Drew Brees every week (well, except this one, because of that whole bye thing). But take a look at his numbers from the first five games of the last four years:
| Yards | TDs | INTs | |
| 2014 | 1574 | 9 | 6 |
| 2013 | 1722 | 12 | 4 |
| 2012 | 1720 | 14 | 6 |
| 2011 | 1769 | 12 | 5 |
An extra interception or two in five games can be written off as “eh.” Touchdowns here or there can as well. Even the yardage boils down to about 30 a game. Each individual difference is “just one of those things.” Together, though, it’s a picture of a good quarterback, but not the roster anchor Brees was supposed to be when you burned a second- or third-round draft pick on him. And with two home games under his belt now, we can’t even put it on his home/road thing.
C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF (96 percent)
Fred Jackson has 46 fantasy points in five games. Spiller has 39. Jackson has 429 yards from scrimmage. Spiller has 321. Jackson has been targeted 33 times. Spiller has been targeted 14. Yards per carry: Jackson 4.8, Spiller 3.5. If there's some number that makes you believe Spiller is still the best running back in Buffalo, please share it with me, because I can't find it. And with Kyle Orton at the helm in Buffalo, Jackson dominated Spiller in usage. Spiller is no longer a fantasy starter outside of the bye weeks or emergency situations.
Stocks I’m not selling
Roddy White, WR, ATL (98 percent)
It took a year and a half for White to go from one of fantasy’s most reliable performers to a regular injury risk and question mark. It started last season, when the receiver Calvin Johnsoned all over the place, playing through injury and making his fantasy owners think they had to use him, only for him to disappoint. But do you remember how White finished 2013? He missed a month in the middle of the season, but over the last five weeks, he had 502 yards and two touchdowns. He’s still Roddy White. He’ll be fine.
Chris Ivory, RB, NYJ (74 percent)
Ivory was a victim of the disaster that was the Jets' offense Sunday. He had his fewest rushing attempts of the season, tying his low-water mark for rushing yards. Through five weeks, even counting Sunday, Ivory is 11th in fantasy scoring among running backs, and he already has more catches this year (seven) than he had in his entire career (five) entering this season. As long as Eric Decker is banged up, Ivory is the best offensive player on the Jets, and when Decker gets back, defenses just have someone else they have to pay attention to. The Jets are terrible, but even terrible teams have to give the ball to someone.
Hedges
Benny Cunningham, RB, STL (5 percent)
I was never much on Cunningham as the guy who would hijack value from Zac Stacy in St. Louis -- Stacy showed a lot a year ago, and the offense didn't appear to be formidable enough for the Rams to work another guy in just to keep the main guy fresh. But now that Stacy has a calf injury, Cunningham could be a nice fill-in. As it stands, Stacy appears likely to play in Week 6, but it's a Monday night game, so you'll want an insurance policy at the least.
George Winn, RB, DET (0 percent)
Joique Bell is hurt. Theo Riddick is hurt. And now Reggie Bush is hurt. I've been repeating a Twitter joke for weeks now, looking at whatever team needs a running back and tweeting "DidTheTEAMXSignLaMichaelJamesYet dot com," because seriously, it's weird that he doesn't have a job, right? (Checks Wikipedia, realizes the Dolphins signed him last week, is sad the joke is dead.) I never really considered the joke about the Lions, though, because even if Bell, Bush and Riddick all miss time, Winn -- fresh off the practice squad -- looked good Sunday, with 48 rushing yards on 11 carries. Odds are good at least one of the Detroit backs will be back for Week 6, but as their brittleness shows, Winn becomes interesting.
Future market
Matt Prater, K (22 percent)
It's a Ticker first, highlighting a player who doesn't even have a job. But Prater was eligible to return from the suspended list Monday, except for the fact that the Broncos cut him Friday. The Lions have already announced they will work him out Tuesday, after they cut their second kicker of the year already. Detroit is also working out Jay Feely, but you have to assume the job will be Prater's, and even if it's not, he'll land somewhere. He's been one of the top kickers for a while, and sure, part of that is the altitude in Denver, but Detroit plays in a dome, which is also nice.
De’Anthony Thomas, RB, KC (1 percent)
The Chiefs have said they like Thomas, who made his NFL debut Sunday with exactly one touch, going for 17 yards and a touchdown. The 21-year-old isn't likely to be a huge part of the Kansas City offense anytime soon, with Jamaal Charles healthy and Knile Davis still around. That said, Charles has already been injured once this year, and Davis has already fumbled the ball three times this year in three games of any consequence. Davis' fumble issues are well-documented, and a scenario where Charles gets hurt and Davis fumbles too much, leading to Thomas being relevant, is not out of the question. Ultimately, he's a dynasty league add, but there's at least the chance for more.
