Sometimes, I like to look back on past posts of mine and see how far I’ve come. Not in terms of writing skill, or bettering myself as a fantasy prognosticator, because no one gives an earthy crap about my own introspection. But I like to compare how I feel today with how I felt, say, 10 weeks ago. And today, it’s worth revisiting.
The Sack: SB Nation’s fantasy football mailbag answers your Week 12 questions
Got fantasy football questions? Come to SB Nation’s Fantasy War Room or tweet @TheSackSBN for answers. Every Thursday, a few will be pulled and answered here. Today, we talk about what to do if you’re a Josh Gordon or Ben Tate owner.
Flash back to the preseason, when the ruling from Ginger Tyrant Roger Goodell came down to ban Josh Gordon from the gridiron. I asked the fantasy community to join me in a scream-cry, which to me meant putting together a Josh Gordon montage to awful power ballads.
But there will be no power ballads today. Today, there will be rejoicing. Today, when fantasy owners set their lineups, they can put Gordon into the spot that says WR, or FLEX, without looking like a butt. No longer is that scarlet letter “S” next to Gordon’s name, a letter I’ve always assumed stands for “shafted.”
All of this of course brings me to my first question, which could only be:
The SB Nation fantasy staff mentioned Gordon in our rankings. This is probably the highest we’ve been on a player who hasn’t practiced in 80 days, as he’s our consensus No. 15 for this week. That puts him squarely in the high-upside WR2 conversation. To me, this means a couple of things. First, he’s not going to be the Josh Gordon of 2013. If he were, he’d be No. 1 this week, or at least top three.
Second, there’s been mention of the possibility that Gordon’s on a snap count this week. But because he’s such an imposing talent, he’s a guy you get into your lineup even at a limited basis. Gordon at 50 percent of the snaps could still conceivably draw 6-to-10 targets, and that could be enough for him to rack up a decent chunk of yards and maybe even a touchdown. So even if he is limited, I wouldn’t close the door on him being a good fantasy option this week. Just temper expectations; 150 yards and a score is a lot to ask in this case.
@TheSackSBN should I start the disappointing target monster Reuben Randle or the enigmatic Percy Harvin in my flex? #thequestforletha
— bill l (@oldstylebeerman) November 19, 2014 Rueben Randle is an exercise in football mediocrity, isn't he? You'd be hard-pressed to find a more inefficient wide receiver in the league than him. Just 53 percent of passes thrown his way have been completed, which ranks 64th of 71 qualifying receivers (per Football Outsiders). And it's not like he's John Brown out there, who has a similar catch rate but is being targeted on plenty of deep routes, which already have a low success rate.
In fact, Randle is being force-fed the ball, but simply not eating it. He is eighth in the NFL with 94 targets, but 42nd in receiving yards. The volume alone makes him a viable fantasy option, but his failure to capitalize doesn’t make him anything more than a middling WR3.
As for Harvin, he’s back to being fantasy-relevant, but we have to worry about whether the NFL can get this game in with all of the snow surrounding its players and fans. Think what you want about the league expanding its market by playing in London, but I will not disrespect the bravery they have by expanding their reach to Hoth. Intergalactic football is just what the future holds, and if you don’t like it you can get out.
Regardless of the planet Harvin is on, we already know he has the talent to capitalize on his opportunities, and the Jets are committed to getting him involved. Though he didn't light the scoreboard up in his second game as a Jet, the encouraging thing was seeing all the different ways they plan on getting him involved. He didn't just split out wide but was also in the backfield of shotgun formations, and he even took a snap as a traditional singleback.
So at the end of the day, you’re choosing between two receivers who are both getting volume, but only one of them has shown the ability to capitalize on a regular basis when he gets it. That’s Harvin, and that’s who I’d be eager to start this week, provided AT-ATs don’t interrupt the game.
@TheSackSBN so should I trade Lafell garçon and d Robinson for Cecil Shorts and Randall Cobb ?
— Eric Newill (@ENewill) November 19, 2014 I think a lot of this depends on what the rest of your roster looks like, but I'm assuming you're hurting for some wide receiver depth. Denard Robinson was a popular waiver pick for obvious reasons, so it isn't out of the realm of possibility that you had depth at running back before you got him, and still do to this day. If you do, I'd pull the trigger* and get Shorts, who could easily continue his trend of being a target monster with Allen Robinson lost for the year, and Cobb, who needs no explanation. I'm not a big fan of Garcon in that reeling Washington offense, as it's pretty apparent that DeSean Jackson is going to receive the targets and the wealth that comes with them. Finally, the Patriots' game plan has too much week-to-week variance to bank on LaFell with any confidence.
*Also, a trick I like to pull when I’m wheeling and dealing -- if I have a player I’ve discussed trading, I put him in my starting lineup** even if I have no intention of starting him. It makes it look like he has more value.
**This only works to an extent of course. If I'm starting Denard Robinson over say, Le'Veon Bell or Jamaal Charles, it looks transparent, and I'm likely greeted by my trade partner*** with a giant middle finger at the beginning of our next trade negotiation.
***So yeah, if you’re in a league with me, I’m just kidding! None of that is real! Let’s trade!
I'm usually pretty leery of players who switch teams mid-season (note: Harvin is the exception, not the rule). It takes time to grasp NFL playbooks and concepts, and teams often have to exercise patience when they have an entire summer training camp at their disposal. Tate won't have that luxury with the Vikings; he'll have to learn everything on the fly.
But NFL teams know what they’re getting into when they make these kinds of claims. The Vikings had an opportunity that they seized, and teams don’t do these things blindly even if they’re unexpected. Tate can still help the team without needing to know every nuance of the offense. He’ll have some simplified packages that he will contribute in and he can just go with it. I’d expect to see him a lot in short-yardage situations at first, but I don’t see much fantasy value for him in 2014.
Tate is going to have to battle Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon for opportunities, and that works both ways. I've never been too high on the Vikings backfield this season, and Tate's addition just means I'm less than I was. The Vikings offense isn't some powerhouse, and there isn't enough wealth to be spread between three running backs. McKinnon is the back I'd want to own the most out of the three, but I wouldn't be excited to have him on my roster in redraft leagues.
Hey, guys, thank you for reading this week’s edition of The Sack. If you would like to be in next week’s The Sack, please post your fantasy questions in the comments or tweet me at @TheSackSBN. Be sure to also visit SB Nation’s Fantasy War Room so I can pull questions from there as well.
