Fantasy Look: What changes for the free-agent running backs?
We take a look at the new (or old) roles of the running backs who have already signed this offseason.
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The SB Nation free-agent tracker lists 40 free-agent running backs this offseason. Included on that list are such luminaries as Spencer Larsen, Tauren Poole, and George Winn (never heard of any of them). Still unsigned on that list are quasi-big names like Knowshon Moreno, Andre Brown, and Maurice Jones-Drew.
Basically, thanks for being traded, Darren Sproles.
For all the big defensive names that have signed so far in NFL free agency, whatever offensive firepower is available really hasn’t gotten going yet. Among running backs, what signings there have been have been of secondary games, guys that aren’t guaranteed to be big contributors and/or weren’t big contributors in 2013.
About a week into the NFL year, here’s a look at the effect of some of the signings on running backs and their new and old teammates:
Darren Sproles to Philadelphia
Sproles in 2013 had his fewest rushing yards since 2007 and his fewest receiving yards and touchdowns since joining the New Orleans Saints. So maybe we shouldn't have been so surprised that the Saints, who for one reason or another seemed to have soured on the running back, were ready to let him go. So any trade, it would seem, had to be a boost to Sproles' value.
Of course, moving to the Eagles wasn't "any trade"; it was perhaps the best possible landing spot for a player with Sproles' skill set. One season isn't enough to say with any big confidence that Chip Kelly's offense will be a resounding success in the NFL, but early signs are good. And Sproles, with his screen-pass mastery and general pass-catching ability out of the backfield, ought to be a spectacular fit in Philly. Sproles rises to a top-100 fantasy player for next year, and his PPR value shoots much higher.
He’s unlikely to steal any significant number of touches from the Eagles’ LeSean McCoy, who is largely impervious to sharing time. McCoy, who I ranked as the No. 2 overall fantasy player for 2014 a few weeks ago, only falls to No. 3.
Meanwhile, Sproles' former teammates should all rise a bit, though the Saints have never really dedicated themselves to the run - at least not since Deuce McAllister's heyday. With Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Khiry Robinson all still in the fold and likely battling for carries, it's unlikely any one guy becomes a real fantasy factor. Thomas, the best of the group, still doesn't crack the top 25 running backs.
Rashad Jennings to New York
Jennings is the only running back in the top 25 of fantasy scoring at the position last year to have changed teams so far this offseason; Moreno, Jones-Drew, and perhaps Chris Johnson are the only ones who appear likely to join him.
The interesting thing about Jennings is that he finished 22nd in running-back fantasy points despite having four or fewer carries seven different times; he did a lot of damage in only a few games, owing to injuries to Darren McFadden and the presence of both McFadden and Marcel Reece in Oakland. But that's always been the case with Jennings; he's always a backup, only when he gets the start he does well, right up until he gets hurt. He did it backing up Jones-Drew in Jacksonville, as well.
Jennings heads to the Giants now, a team that desperately needed a running back it could rely on last year, running through Andre Brown, David Wilson, Michael Cox, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Jacobs, and Da'Rel Scott in a quest for a rusher who could do ... anything, really. Most of those running backs are not worth an NFL roster slot, Wilson's health is likely to forever be a question mark if he even makes it back, and Brown is a free agent as well. So the team jumped on Jennings' availability, giving him a four-year deal.
It's tough to say what this means for Jennings' value for 2014. The team also brought back Hillis, though he is unlikely to be much of a fantasy factor ever again. But the Giants wanted to have a Wilson/Brown combo last season, with Wilson getting the yards and Brown getting the scores; if they bring back Brown for a similar role for 2014, neither of the two will have enormous value, making it more of a DeAngelo Williams/Mike Tolbert Carolina situation. If, on the other hand, Jennings' only competition for touches is Hillis, then he'll score well in fantasy as long as he's healthy - however long that is.
Ben Tate to Cleveland
This signing would have been much more exciting a few years ago. After his rookie year in 2011, when Tate ran for 942 yards (5.4 per carry) and four touchdowns as Arian Foster’s backup, him getting a clear starting job would have been met with much excitement.
Now, though, the bloom has largely come off of Tate's rose. In the two years after 2011, including being a starter for a decent portion of last year, Tate has only 1,050 total rushing yards in 25 games. Three of his four touchdowns in 2013 came in the Texans' Week 13 game against New England; outside of that, Tate had only one touchdown in 13 games last year, and only reached double-digit fantasy points twice all season.
On the other hand, the only competition for touches it appears he's likely to face in Cleveland will be the team's late-2013 acquisition, Edwin Baker, and there's a reason Baker was readily available late in the season last year. In short, Tate is going to be the guy in Cleveland, which gives him as good a chance of being productive as he was likely to have anywhere. With Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron spreading the field for whoever ends up at quarterback in Cleveland, Tate should at least be in position to succeed.
My early rankings had Tate at 53rd at running back, owing to the mystery surrounding his eventual role. With this news, he climbs to around 30, easily. Depending on what ends up surrounding him in Cleveland, he could move even higher. Baker, meanwhile, becomes little more than an injury replacement.
Toby Gerhart to Jacksonville
Manny Alexander had one of the sweetest jobs in sports history - backup for Cal Ripken Jr. during the latter parts of his consecutive-games streak. He didn’t have to do much, didn’t have to do well when he did play, and fostered an aura that he would eventually be Ripken’s heir apparent.
Unfortunately, when he did get the gig, it turned out that Alexander couldn’t do that much. He bounced around for a while, ultimately playing until 2006. But he never did produce like some thought he might.
I’ve been high on Gerhart as Adrian Peterson’s handcuff for the last few years. In 2011, he had three touchdowns and two hundred-yards games in a three-week span. This year, he put up 89-plus yards twice in three weeks. For a guy who barely ever needed to play, his occasional success was exciting.
Well, now Gerhart has gone from the afterthought to ... a co-thought, I suppose. Jordan Todman is still in Jacksonville as well, but he has 155 career rushing yards outside of that single game against Buffalo in Week 15. We'll see who gets the primary gig among the two of them, but regardless, my initial 2014 rankings on the two will have to change. I had Todman 15th among running backs, assuming he'd be the lone relevant Jaguars running back, while Gerhart was 65th at the position. If we assume they're in some sort of timeshare, I'd have to have them both in the mid-30s.
Meanwhile, this would be a good time to monitor the Minnesota running backs. Gerhart is gone, and Matt Asiata isn't a really viable running back option. They'll have to bring someone in, whether a current NFL back or someone in the draft. And we'll be right back on the top-handcuff train.
Donald Brown to San Diego
Brown wasn't supposed to be relevant last year. The Colts brought in Ahmad Bradshaw in the offseason, intending to pair him with Vick Ballard. When Ballard got hurt, they went Bradshaw-heavy, right up until they traded for Trent Richardson. Then Bradshaw went down. Then Richardson went terrible. Eventually, Brown was forced into action, and he performed okay.
Unfortunately, he only looked good as a result of being compared to the lofty expectations and disastrous returns of Richardson. Brown never rushed for more than 80 yards in a game, gaining 751 yards from scrimmage over the season. He finished 26th among running backs in fantasy scoring.
Now, Brown joins the Chargers, who have Ryan Mathews, the pre-Richardson Richardson, in that he was a theoretically talented running back who just wasn't putting it together. That changed last year, with Mathews rushing for 1,255 yards and tying for 10th in running-back scoring. They also have 19th-finishing Danny Woodhead, who is the team's receiving back.
Basically, Brown is just the Chargers' new Brown, as Ronnie Brown is an outgoing Charger free agent. He'll get a handful of touches, and should Mathews and/or Woodhead go down with injury, maybe he can recreate his 2013 magic. But overall, Brown's fantasy value basically slips to nil. In Indianapolis, Richardson will get another shot at the top gig, while Ballard and the resigned Bradshaw both return from injury. That's a wait-and-see situation.
Darren McFadden re-ups with Oakland
Despite the publicity, McFadden has only really had one big NFL year - 2010, when he rushed for 1,157 yards, added 507 in the receiving game, and scored 10 total touchdowns. Even that season, he played in only 13 games, which also happens to be his career high - he’s averaged just over 11 games a year in his six seasons.
Regardless, there's still all that theoretical potential that made him the fourth overall pick in 2008, and the Raiders remained on board to the tune of a one-year, $4 million deal. You can't possible go into a fantasy season relying on McFadden as your No. 1, but he did start last season we three straight double-digit fantasy games before the injuries started popping up.
I had McFadden and his uncertain future ranked as the 32nd running back a few weeks ago; with the news that he is back in Oakland without Jennings, he climbs up to the low-to-mid 20s at the position. Meanwhile, Marcel Reece, the other primary Oakland ball carrier, should be a decent backup/handcuff/injury starter. He’s done well behind McFadden and Jennings before.
Joique Bell still in Detroit
The Lions stand to have a heck of an offense next year. Calvin Johnson, of course, but Reggie Bush is still there and Golden Tate has arrived. Bell, though, is the forgotten man of the group, and he might be as important as any of the group.
Bush was very good most of the year last year, but he missed two games to injury and was less than 100 percent in a few others. In his absence, Bell had more than a few decent games, finishing 16th among running backs in fantasy points (Bush was 12th). Bell had eight touchdowns and 1,197 total yards from scrimmage as a fill-in starter and/or backup.
Look for more of Bell in the same role in 2014. He’s not someone you’ll draft as your starter in any but the deepest leagues, but he’ll have flashes, he’ll help in bye weeks, and if Bush goes down, he’ll have plenty of value.
