Fantasy football impact: The Packers should maintain their success

Since the 2002 expansion, the top four teams in wins are the New England Patriots (147), Indianapolis Colts (133), Pittsburgh Steelers (121), and Green Bay Packers (118). In that 12-year span, the Colts and Patriots have won double-digit games in a year 11 times, and the Packers sit third in that group, with eight.

Basically, there are some teams you expect to be good. (Not the Bills, though; they're the only team with zero double-digit win seasons since the expansion.) That's why it felt nigh-on disastrous in 2013 when, spending half the season without a decent quarterback you've probably heard of, the Packers fell to 8-7-1 and barely squeaked into the playoffs. They lose a great quarterback (Aaron Rodgers), a good tight end (Jermichael Finley), and an upper-end receiver (Randall Cobb) for extended periods - and that's only from the skill players - and win their division.

In a sense, 2013 was the Packers' placeholder episode. It introduced a new character (Eddie Lacy); it closed out some old storylines (James Jones); it sent off a beloved character that never quite worked in heartbreaking fashion (Finley). In this analogy, 2014 sets up as the Packers' sweeps week, the time when everything culminates.

Rodgers was limited to eight games in 2013 (I'm just calling his barely-played-before-getting-hurt Week 9 appearance as "not a game," because it's easier) because of a broken collarbone. In those eight games, he put up 20 or more fantasy points four times - half. Drew Brees put up 20-plus eight times in 16 games. Cam Newton did it six. Andrew Luck four. Matthew Stafford six.

I mean, it can't be a surprise for anyone, but still: Per game, Aaron Rodgers was still Aaron Rodgers last year. If you assume he's healthy for 2014 - and there's no real reason not to-he's still a top three quarterback at worst. I ranked him third at the position (behind Peyton Manning and Brees) and 15^th overall, and if you wanted to take him over Brees, I wouldn't really argue with you.

I wasn't convinced on Lacy entering the season last year. Between the Packers' penchant for throwing the ball and the general underwhelmingness of Alabama running backs (or maybe just Mark Ingram, I dunno) in the NFL before that, I pegged Lacy a few spots lower than most did.

To be honest, I'm not altogether sure that idea was wrong, in and of itself. Lacy became a different running back after Rodgers' injury; he topped 100 yards in a game only once while the quarterback was healthy, but did it three times without him. He topped out at 17.2 fantasy points (and averaged 13.48) before Rodgers' injury, but topped that number three times (and averaged 14.46) afterward. He scored three touchdowns before Rodgers got hurt; he scored eight afterward. Sure, when Matt Flynn started against the Lions and the entire team imploded, Lacy wasn't anything worthwhile, but in general, he went from a good-not-great fantasy running back for the first half of the season to a No. 1 option.

I tend to think Lacy will still be fine; I ranked him fifth (both among running backs and overall) for 2014, something like the Edgerrin James to Rodgers' Manning. I could see an argument for Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris, Le'Veon Bell, Zac Stacy over him if someone wanted to pose it, but he's an RB1 either way.

Behind Lacy, the team still has James Starks and Johnathan Franklin - both of whom had hundred-yard games last year - if needed, and fullback John Kuhn will surely end up with the occasional goal-line rush, as the team is wont to do. I ranked Starks 41^st among running backs (121 overall) and didn't rank the others, but you don't really want to bother with any of the three unless you have to.

After having years of Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson controlling the receiving in Green Bay, with Cobb and Jones floating in in recent seasons, the Green Bay receiving corps found some turmoil in 2013. Jennings left as a free agent. Jones was hurt for some of the year, and inconsistent when he was out there. Cobb played in only six regular-season games. Nelson was generally good - topping 1,300 yards - but not his normal consistent self.

After the season, the Packers let Jones leave to sign with the Oakland Raiders, leaving Nelson, Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin as the team's new triumvirate. Nelson, who still managed 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns in a sub-peak year, came in as my No. 7 receiver, No. 25 overall. Cobb, who broke his leg in Week 6 a year ago, was really good when he played; in five-and-a-half games, Cobb scored four touchdowns and topped 500 yards from scrimmage. He scored double-digit fantasy points four times in his five full games.

With Jones gone, Boykin should be a full-fledged part of the Packers offense in 2014. That said, there's still a reason he went undrafted and got cut from the Jaguars before finding himself in Green Bay. Boykin is talented, but he's not up to the class of his former cohort. I have him ranked as my 46^th receiver - 124 overall - meaning he's not likely to be worth much more than a depth play.

I include tight end in this piece because it's come to be expected; the team appears likely to enter next season with Andrew Quarless as its top tight end; there are enough pressing needs at non-skill positions that it seems unlikely they will use a high draft pick on a tight end (or much of any skill players, really). And I'm sure Mr. Quarless is a nice enough guy, but if you're running him out there regularly in fantasy, something has gone a bit wrong somewhere.