SB Nation Analysts’ Mock: Rounds 1-5

We’ve completed five rounds of the SB Nation Fantasy analysts’ football mock. If you didn’t see Tuesday’s first-round review, this is a 12-team slow mock, with standard rosters and scoring. We’re hoping to give a look at some general strategies and the like, and show how a draft will actually shake out.

Today, I’ll look at the picks round-by-round with a bit of critique (not too harsh, because the other owners could probably take me in a fight), and close with a look at the rosters so far:

My pick: As I’ve mentioned ad nauseam, the top three in fantasy, for me, are a toss-up, and you could take any of Peterson, Charles, and McCoy in any order and I wouldn’t fuss. Charles is my favorite, though overall this was a no-brainer.

Best value: Eddie Lacy at Pick No. 8 seems like a relative steal. I’ve seen him ranked as high as fourth or fifth overall; he has a chance to crush this value.

Worst value: This seems really high for DeMarco Murray, for me. He’s still looking for his first 16-game season in his career, and while 2013 was easily his best overall season, and every football player is some kind of injury risk, I would prefer more reliability out of my first pick.

My pick: If Stacy, Marshall, Foster, or Martin had made it back to me, I wouldn’t have bothered with a quarterback quite this early, but those were the only Round 2 options I really would have considered. It’s true that quarterback is deep, but Brees is still a cut above the rest.

Relevant owner opinion: “Did he just complete the first two rounds without selecting a running back? Yes, he did. The difference between the fifth best running back and 15th isn’t as steep a dropoff as most think. Julio Jones was the last player on the board in my opinion who carried a first-round grade. There’s not much of a difference between Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson to me, and Johnson went fifth overall. I refuse to overpay for mediocre RB production early in drafts this year. The NFL is changing and so if fantasy football. I plan on being ahead of the curve.” — Kylan Easterling

My pick: Were this a point-per-reception league, I probably would have avoided Morris, who has only 20 receptions in his two seasons. But this is standard, and Morris has 2,888 rushing yards in two seasons. Love my value here.

Best value: The main alternative to Morris I considered was Ellington, who I have pegged as a huge breakout candidate this season. Kylan grabbed Jimmy Graham and Julio Jones in the first two rounds, so he needed a starting running back, and that’s a heck of a third-round score.

Worst value: This, to me, seemed crazy early for the run on tight ends, with three going in the round. I can see Thomas, but Cameron was inconsistent last year, and you never know how much Gronkowski will play. With Gronk having (obviously) the highest upside, I’ll say Cameron is the dodgiest pick here.

Round 4

My pick: I went back and forth on Hilton vs. Harvin here, ultimately taking the lower ceiling of Hilton because, again, higher floor. I kind of feel like maybe I’m playing it too safe on these, but I prefer to take the big risks later in the draft.

Best value: We’re a year removed from Spiller being a first-round pick; I don’t really think he’s that guy, but there’s the possibility there, and getting a maybe-first-rounder in the fourth is a worthwhile look.

Worst value: There wasn’t much here for me to criticize, so I’ll say Vereen; without the point boost of a PPR league, he’ll really need to accumulate yards like he hasn’t before to return high value.

Relevant owner opinion: “He was the last receiver left with top-five-per-game numbers potential, and if I get even 13 games out of him, he will produce numbers on a per-game basis to fully justify this pick. If Harvin plays all 16 games this year, getting him with the last pick in the fourth round should be a steal, as he will threaten top-five territory in a full season.” — Robert Keeley

Best value: With Eric Decker out of Denver, there’s a decent chance Welker sees his value leap. He’s a good value in the middle of the fifth.

Worst value: I think I got picky here, because I can critique several names here. Rice, with a likely suspension looming? Reed, who barely got half a season in before injury? Patterson, whose 2013 value rested heavily in fluke plays? The disappointing Richardson? The yet-to-prove-himself Gerhart? Seems to me this round is when we start getting serious question marks.

Relevant owner opinion: “I wanted Vincent Jackson here, but Welker left some on the field last year and has the potential to combine the 150-plus targets from the Brady years with the red-zone targets from Manning in 2013.” — Jacob Adler

We’re going a full 16 rounds here, but here’s a look at the rosters thus far: