Fantasy football impact: Can Jacksonville and optimism coexist?

The Jacksonville Jaguars' 2006 draft can only be called a success. The team used its first two picks on tight end Marcedes Lewis and running back Maurice Jones-Drew, both out of UCLA. Lewis was a 2010 Pro Bowler, and has been at least serviceable at his position throughout most of his career. Jones-Drew, was the jewel, reaching the Pro Bowl three different times and scoring 79 touchdowns with the team before leaving for Oakland this offseason.

And then came the dark years, particularly from a fantasy perspective. In 2007, the team drafted Mike Sims-Walker, who put up 869 yards and seven touchdowns in 2009, but managed fewer than 1,000 total yards the rest of his career and was out of the NFL by 2011. The Jaguars spent most of the rest of their 2007 and 2008 draft picks on non-skill-position players, with the only exceptions being wide receiver John Broussard (seventh round, 2007) and running back Chauncey Washington (seventh round, 2008). Those two combined for 135 yards, and neither has seen the field since 2011.

It didn't get particularly better in 2009. On a positive note, the Jaguars drafted Eugene Monroe, who had some good years with the team before being dealt to Baltimore last season. But Jacksonville also drafted five different skill players -- three receivers, a tight end, and a running back -- who failed to produce as hoped. The three receivers were Mike Thomas, who was the class of the group; Jarrett Dillard, who has 390 yards in five years; and Tiquan Underwood, who managed just 111 yards for Jacksonville before leaving to ply his trade elsewhere. The tight end was Zach Miller, and not the good Zach Miller -- this Zach Miller caught 45 passes from 2009 to 2011, and hasn't played since.

The prize of the Jaguars' 2009 class was Rashad Jennings. The running back stayed in Jacksonville for four seasons, though 2011 was spent on injured reserve. He scored seven touchdowns and went for almost 1,400 yards when he did play. He went on to have a decent year in Oakland last year, and signed a four-year deal with the New York Giants in the offseason.

It's like the Jags didn't even acknowledge fantasy in the 2010 draft. That made some sense, as the team had Jones-Drew in the midst of his world-beating, along with Sims-Walker off his career year, Lewis entering his, and a Pro Bowl quarterback in David Garrard. As a result, the team focused on its defense in the draft that year, only picking an offensive player with its sixth-round selection of running back Deji Karim. Karim has just 341 career rushing yards, and still hasn't scored an NFL touchdown.

It's been more of the same in Jacksonville the last two seasons. The Jaguars have not taken many offensive skill players, and the ones they have taken have failed to pan out. They used the fifth overall pick in 2012 on wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who has been very good when he's been eligible to play. Of course, that's a big caveat, as Blackmon has been suspended twice, including an ongoing "indefinite" suspension for substance abuse violations. Jags GM David Caldwell has said it's "unlikely" Blackmon plays for Jacksonville in 2014.

In 2013, the team took a couple of what can only be described as offensive weapons in Ace Sanders (fourth round) and Denard Robinson (fifth round). Sanders had a few decent moments in 2013, while Robinson was barely used. Neither one looks to be the next big thing by any means.

The team went nuts (by its standards) for offensive skill players in this year's draft. It used its first-round pick (third overall) on quarterback Blake Bortles, then used both of its second round picks on wide receivers Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson. To cap it off, the Jaguars used their last pick, the seventh pick in the seventh round, on running back Storm Johnson.

Those four will join a cadre of returning players -- Shorts, Sanders, Robinson, and Mike Brown at receiver, Jordan Todman and Robinson again at running back, Lewis at tight end, even incumbent quarterback Chad Henne -- and free-agent signee running back Toby Gerhart to form an offense that might not be the disaster it has been in recent years.

So the Jaguars signed a free agent in the offseason, bringing in Gerhart from Minnesota on a three-year, $10.5-million deal. Gerhart has been stuck behind Adrian Peterson for his entire career. He was a second-round pick in 2010, but the only time he has received even quasi-regular play in his career is a short stretch near the end of 2011 when Peterson was hurt. Gerhart has been fine, though, when he has played. He has 1,305 rushing yards (4.7 per carry) and 600 receiving yards (7.8 per reception) for his career.

In our SB Nation Fantasy Analysts' Mock, Gerhart went late in the fifth round. Todman, meanwhile, went undrafted. While I agree that Gerhart is the superior choice of the two, it's hard to believe the difference is that great, or that Gerhart should go that highly. Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Rashad Jennings, Stevan Ridley, and others all went after Gerhart in our mock. He was the 24th running back off the board.

I would move Gerhart down at least two or three rounds (say, early eighth?) overall, and a dozen or so spots at the position level. The upside just doesn't outweigh the risk of a fifth-round pick. Meanwhile, Todman probably should have gone in our mock. He's not someone who is going to play in much of any fantasy lineups barring unforeseen circumstances, but he isn't any worse than players like Roy Helu, Andre Williams or Vick Ballard, all of who went in our mock draft. Todman is worth a 14th- or 15th-round pick in regular 12-team leagues.

Robinson has a lower ceiling. He was a nice pickup for the Jaguars in the second round, but he isn't likely to contribute in fantasy this season. Likewise, the presence of Shorts and Lee demote Sanders and Mike Brown to afterthoughts in fantasy. I'd draft Lee in the 14th round or so in fantasy leagues, and somewhere around 60^th among wide receivers. He's not a guy you want to use, but he's someone you want to stash in case the Jags have found lightning in a bottle. Meanwhile, none of the team's other receivers should be drafted. Keep an eye on Robinson or Sanders, sure. But don't draft them, they aren't worth the pick.