Fantasy football impact: How trustworthy are the Eagles’ fantasy players?

So often in fantasy, the keyword is “trust.” Read more than one preseason ranking piece and you’ll inevitably see something along the lines of “I’m not sure Adrian Peterson will return No. 1 overall value, but it’s hard to imagine him falling out of the top six or seven. He’s perceived as the highest-ceiling running back, sure, but most also perceive him as the highest-floor one as well.

Later in the draft, you can (and should) take chances, sure, but even then, there’s a lot of trust involved. You can’t draft every flyer, up-and-comer. You pick the ones you trust the most and roll with it.

And then there’s the quarterback. Foles was stellar last year, no question. But he was also undeniably lucky. His 0.60 percent interception rate was the second-best in football of any quarterback with more than 16 pass attempts; only Josh McCown (at 0.40 percent) was better. Regression seems inevitable from here. Grantland’s Bill Barnwell was on this back in January; there’s plenty of reason to think Foles just had his career year, so is he really worth taking ahead of Russell Wilson, who might have a lower ceiling but should have a higher floor, or Tom Brady? Both quarterbacks are going behind him in early rankings and preliminary drafts.

None of that is to say that the Eagles’ players will all fall off in 2014. They might be just as great as they were in 2013 (or 2012, in the cases of Maclin and Sproles). But take a look at the fantasy scoring of the last five years for the guys in question, and you tell me where there’s a track record of defined success that tells you you know what’s coming in 2014:

There’s nothing there that screams “obvious trend” to me, with the possible exception of Sproles’ defined downward trajectory.

The Eagles will probably be good in 2014. They will probably have good players in fantasy, as well. Just know going in that they are almost entirely without a sure thing.

To the positions:

When looking up Nick Foles, I stumble across headlines like “How the Eagles saw in Foles what no others did,” talking about how Philadelphia picked Foles in what seemed like a reach in 2012, taking him with a third-round pick when quarterback wasn’t seen as one of their imminent needs, then went to him over a veteran starter.

With Foles, though, the Eagles drafted a backup to a questionable starter in Michael Vick, and then didn’t even go to him until Vick left them with basically no choice. Yeah, it showed a keen eye to target Foles specifically, but if the Eagles really “saw in Foles what no other did,” and/or if Foles is really that special, wouldn’t the Eagles have gone to him sooner? Even if Andy Reid didn’t do it in 2012, why wouldn’t Chip Kelly - more familiar with Foles because of their college matchups - go to him to start 2013? That isn’t necessarily related to Foles as a fantasy piece, but it does help pose my argument about whether he’s the next stud or a product of a system and some lucky numbers.

Now for the down side. Foles was, as I said, almost preternaturally lucky in 2013, with two interceptions in 317 pass attempts. In exactly double the attempts - 634 - Matthew Stafford threw 19 interceptions, and he was better than average among all quarterbacks. The other quarterbacks with exactly two interceptions last year attempted six, 16, 22, and 51 passes apiece. No one is saying Foles is going to skyrocket to Eli Manning’s 4.90 percent rate of 2013, but I can say with nearly 100 percent certainty Foles isn’t putting up a percentage of 0.60 again in 2014. That interception number will rise.

Add it all together, and Foles promises to be a low-end QB1 - if you end up with him, you aren’t devastated, but you shouldn’t feel altogether great about it, either. It’s that “trust” thing - Foles will probably be good, and you’ll probably be fine with him, but he just doesn’t have the same reliability that the upper tier of the position has.

I would slot Foles right around 10 among quarterbacks, and in the 70-ish range overall. I have him basically back-to-back with Russell Wilson, though if I get to the point where I’m deciding between those two, I will certainly have the decision made for me - if I have a lot of reasonably sure things, guys I know I can count on, in the rest of my lineup, I’ll take a flyer on the upside of Foles. Conversely, if I’ve taken injury risks and question marks in the first few rounds, I would opt for Wilson, who generally is less likely to have a huge game, but we know he is who he is. Foles might drop off completely in 2014; there’s very little chance Wilson will.

Personally, my order right now is Charles, Peterson, McCoy. I put it that way because of that key word from earlier. Trust. Do I think McCoy could easily repeat his 2013? Absolutely. I think there’s a great chance. But do I think there’s no chance he slides back to 2012, even a healthy version of that year? Nope. I can’t with any confidence claim that there’s no way McCoy doesn’t slide back a few tenths of a yard per carry, doesn’t miss the end zone a few more times. I like McCoy, but I trust Charles and Peterson just a bit more.

That isn’t an insult, mind you. McCoy is still my No. 3 running back, and still my No. 3 overall player. He’s phenomenal. There is just slightly more worry with him than with the other two. For me. You can disagree if you wish.

There is a lot more intrigue behind McCoy on the Eagles’ running-back depth chart. The next biggest name, Darren Sproles, plies his trade largely independently of his running-back teammates. He is a running back by position, but Sproles has been a pass-catcher who just spelled “WR” wrong for much of his career, particularly the last-three-years, playing-in-New-Orleans part. He averaged 62.67 rushes and 77.33 receptions a year in New Orleans, scoring five touchdowns on the ground and 16 through the air. So Sproles’ presence of absence doesn’t generally have much to do with what happens with the other running backs his team has. He could have a little more impact on McCoy’s performance, as McCoy catches passes at a somewhat Sprolesian pace, but by and large McCoy’s value doesn’t get dinged because Sproles is in the fold.

Added to that is the fact that Sproles is on a three-year decline in, well, pretty much everything. His rushing yards have decreased for three years running (603 to 244 to 220), as have his receiving yards (710 to 667 to 604). He scored nine touchdowns in 2011, then eight in 2012, and then only four last year. His yards per carry and per touch have fallen the same way. Even conceding that Sproles played through some injuries in 2013, he’s not the player (fantasy or reality) he once was.

Sproles’ value bumps up in any point-per-reception leagues, as he’s still likely to catch a lot of balls for a running back, but even then, he isn’t likely to be a difference-maker anymore.

Overall, I would take McCoy, as I said, third, and wouldn’t argue if you bumped him up. Sproles I would take around 45 among running backs and 100-ish overall, but I’d bump him up a dozen or so RBs in a PPR. And for Polk, I find it hard to imagine I’d draft him at all. I suppose if I had McCoy, I might burn a late-round pick on Polk, but in general, I think I might find a more trustworthy running back elsewhere.

Riley Cooper had 835 yards on 47 catches in 2013, scoring eight touchdowns. He finished 22^nd among wide receivers with 128 fantasy points. Those are all nice-looking numbers that would seem to inspire confidence. And they do, if you don’t spent more than three seconds looking at them.

Cooper did a huge percentage of his damage in just two games last year - with 241 yards and five touchdowns in Weeks 9 and 10 combined, 54 of Cooper’s 128 fantasy points, or 42.2 percent, came in just that time. He averaged eight fantasy points a game over the whole season; take out those two games and he averaged 5.3.

Now, every game counts, and production is production; if you started Cooper every week, he just about won you those two games by himself. That has value. But only two wide receivers with 100-plus fantasy points in 2013 scored a higher percentage of their points in a two-game sample: Victor Cruz and T.Y. Hilton

That’s why the ACL was so frustrating. Now, instead of being excited about Maclin’s first year as the showcased wide receiver, we have to wonder how the knee will come back, whether he’ll be at or near full strength at the start of the season, or when that might happen, and what he’ll be like until then.

Ultimately, though, Matthews has to prove himself before it makes sense to go to him before the other two in fantasy. If I’m drafting today, I’m taking Maclin first among the Philadelphia wide receivers, in the early 30s at the position and early 70s overall. But I’m also watching Maclin more closely than I am just about any other premier player in the preseason. I need to see how his knee does leading up to the season, and I could see my placement of Maclin slide a dozen picks in either direction pretty easily.

Cooper would be a flex play at best for me, if that, coming in around 50 among receivers and around 130 overall. Matthews is much further down for now, maybe 70 at wide receiver. That said, I would rather have Matthews on my roster than Cooper, especially if Maclin’s knee looks subpar. If I draft Matthews, it’s a lottery-pick choice, a guy I know I’m not having to rely on, while a pick spent on Cooper is a pick you’re likely to have to use. To me, Matthews is much more likely to provide positive return on his investment than Cooper is.

It feels like Brent Celek has been the “eh, whatever” tight end in fantasy for his entire career. He’s the guy you pick up on a bye week or when your starter gets hurt, but he’s not the guy you pick as your starter if you have any other option. Outside of 2009, when he had 971 yards and eight touchdowns, Celek has never had anything resembling a “wow” season. He’s a fine TE2, a perfectly relevant player, but nothing special.

Going forward, Ertz has to be seen as a better fantasy option for 2014 than Celek. Neither guy should be a starter in a standard league, if for no other reason than they’ll fight each other for touches. But Ertz would be a passable TE2, maybe 15^th or 16^th at the position. Celek falls shorter; I can’t picture drafting him as long as the Eagles have Ertz and all those other non-tight-end weapons. I certainly believe Celek will have his occasional moment in 2014, but his days as more than that have come and gone.