Fantasy football impact: Can the Giants rebound from their awful 2013?

Below is that same chart again, this time with lines tracking each team’s ranking across the two lists. A red line means the team ranks lower in incoming 2014 fantasy producers than wins over those five years; a blue line means the opposite. Cleveland’s black line means it ranked the same. And the team I’m talking about this week is in green:

(Yes, I’m only fair-to-middling at illustrating skills. I think the point’s still there.)

Four teams stand out as “disappointments”: Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston and the New York Giants. You can play the numbers in several different ways to make any one of the four stand out as the most disappointing fantasy team from 2013, but I’ll say this: No team with more wins than the Giants in the five years leading up to 2013 has fewer 2013 double-digit fantasy games on its roster now.

If you want to say that Baltimore, Houston, Atlanta, whoever, were more disappointing from a fantasy perspective last year, I won’t argue. It’s not really the point, which is, no matter the exact rank, the Giants were tremendously disappointing in 2013.

So, after years of strong fantasy performances, can the Giants rebound from a disaster season? Let’s look at the positions:

Eli Manning’s career worsts in 2013: Touchdowns. Interceptions. QBR. Passer rating.

Manning had never finished below 15th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring before last season, when he came in No. 21 at the position, and he was as close to falling to 30th as he was to climbing to 17th.

Part of the blame for Manning’s struggles can be placed on his subpar offensive line, which led to a career high in sacks. Even with the healthiest history of any quarterback currently playing -- he’s only been on the injury list once since 2009, and hasn’t ever missed a game due to injury -- increased sack numbers have to be a worry.

In the preseason last season, it looked like the Giants would run with David Wilson as the primary running back and Andre Brown as the third-down/goal-line guy. Then Brown got hurt in preseason, and Wilson got even more hype, going as high as the second round in some drafts. Then Wilson got hurt.

Of course, that assumes Jennings gets full-time play in New York, which is no sure thing. Wilson, who was shut down for the season after Week 5 with neck/spine problems, was no sure thing to even play football again as recently as a few months ago, but reports out of New York lately have said he’s clear for full activity heading into training camp. Wilson is only a year removed from being seen as a second-round value, so if he’s healthy he could carry the load.

Williams, the team’s fourth-round draft pick, led the country in rushing last season with Boston College. He doesn’t offer much help in the passing game, but can be a bruising running back like what the team expected Brown to be a year ago.

Finally, there’s Hillis, who is still with the team after last year. He played in only seven games in 2013, with 343 total yards and two touchdowns. He’s just there as an emergency play, and if you end up with him in fantasy, aww shucks.

There is as much variability in the Giants’ running back situation as there is with any team in the NFL, primarily because of the questions surrounding Wilson. If he is what he was supposed to have been a year ago, he’ll be the team’s No. 1 and a candidate for a high-end RB2. But if his health issues remain a sticking point, he could be an afterthought.

For me, I side with Jennings as the best choice in New York. He’s got a slightly longer trend of success than Wilson, and a slightly healthier past. Plus, he’s going into training camp more or less healthy. There are just too many question marks around Wilson for me to take him in fantasy drafts anywhere close to where I would have to rely on him.

I rank Jennings as my No. 20 running back, in the early-to-mid-50s overall. Wilson is in my early 50s at the position, with Williams in the 60s. I could easily envision scenarios in which either guy rises up, but for the start of the season, they’re little more than lottery tickets.

And then it all fell apart. Cruz and Nicks had each had a pair of 1,000-yard seasons between 2010 and 2012 (a combined four in three years), then both fell short last year, albeit with Cruz falling short by only 2 yards. More tellingly, Nicks had 27 touchdowns in four years before 2013, and Cruz had 19 in two, and the duo combined for only four last year, with Cruz getting all four.

Cruz’s final line -- 998 yards, four touchdowns -- doesn’t look like an abject disaster. However, the majority of his production came in Week 1, when he went for 118 yards and three scores. Cruz put up 880 yards and one score after Week 1; he had 29 fantasy points in the game, and 64 through four games, then only 51 fantasy points over the last three-quarters of the season.

This year, Cruz is still around and still the team’s No. 1. Nicks is gone, signed with Indianapolis. Taking Nicks’ spot as the team’s second receiver is ... well, that’s a good question. Randle has been around the last couple of years, and his six touchdowns led the team a year ago. He has had troubles with his routes and drops, though, and many of Manning’s interceptions in 2013 were blamed on him. Jernigan never had much of any relevance in the team’s offense until the end of the season last year; he had 92 yards on the season until Week 15, then put up 294 total yards and three touchdowns the rest of the way. Finally, the Giants used their first-round pick (12th overall) on Odell Beckham Jr. out of LSU, and he’s a big-time prospect.

Manningham, returning to New York after two seasons in San Francisco, doesn’t appear likely to be in this group barring some big changes.

I rank Cruz as my No. 12 receiver entering the season. Personally, I bought into Jernigan’s hot end to the season, and I have him as my top Giants receiver after Cruz, though I don’t feel super confident in that belief. I have him at No. 46 at the position, with Randle and Beckham both in the early 50s. Really, beyond Cruz, they’re tossups. Pick whichever one you think is the likely producer and draft him.

Poor Giants. They’ve kept trying on tight ends the last few years, with almost success, and they keep leaving. Jake Ballard was decent three years ago, before he got hurt. Martellus Bennett produced in 2012, but left as a free agent. Then Brandon Myers came in for a season, scored four touchdowns, and left as well.