Of the top 10 running backs off the board in 2013, five of them can comfortably be called busts. Of the top 10 wide receivers, however, only three can.
2014 fantasy football wide receiver bust candidates
It’s inevitable that some wide receivers are going to fall well short of expectations this season. These are a few guys who might be those disappointments.
Hannah Foslien
For proof, here’s a chart:
| ADP | Running Back | Final Rank | ADP | Wide Receiver | Final Rank | |
| 1 | Adrian Peterson | 7 | 1 | Calvin Johnson | 3 | |
| 2 | Doug Martin | 57 | 2 | A.J. Green | 4 | |
| 3 | Arian Foster | 41 | 3 | Dez Bryant | 7 | |
| 4 | Jamaal Charles | 1 | 4 | Brandon Marshall | 5 | |
| 5 | Ray Rice | 30 | 5 | Julio Jones | 64 | |
| 6 | C.J. Spiller | 28 | 6 | Demaryius Thomas | 2 | |
| 7 | Trent Richardson | 34 | 7 | Larry Fitzgerald | 16 | |
| 8 | Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 8 | Andre Johnson | 12 | |
| 9 | LeSean McCoy | 2 | 9 | Randall Cobb | 59 | |
| 10 | Alfred Morris | 14 | 10 | Roddy White | 52 |
The three WR busts -- Jones, Cobb and White -- can all be chalked up to injuries, more or less. Meanwhile, of the five RB busts -- Martin, Foster, Rice, Spiller, Richardson -- only Martin and Foster can say it was because of injuries; the other three were just bad. Injury busts are still busts, but performance busts are much more frustrating. You can bench a hurt guy, but an unproductive top pick is someone you’re just stuck with.
The point here is this: While 2013 might have been an extreme example, in general, receivers are far more predictable than running backs. It’s why a dynasty-league draft would feature a receiver-heavy first round. It’s also why picking out bust-candidate receivers is a tougher task.
Regardless, here we go:
I'm not necessarily predicting any of these players to be busts; I just wish to acknowledge the possibility. I love Patterson as much as anyone, but, after finishing as the No. 32 receiver a year ago, I've seen him ranked as high as the mid-teens heading into 2014, and that is expecting a lot out of the second-year player. He's going to have Matt Cassel or Teddy Bridgewater or Christian Ponder throwing to him, and the team still has Adrian Peterson, Kyle Rudolph, Greg Jennings, Jerome Simpson and Jarius Wright to contend for touches. Patterson could be great, but he's no sure thing.
Jordy Nelson, Packers
Barring injury, it's hard to envision Nelson falling far down the list of wide receivers. But he finished 11th at the position last year, in large part because he was the only one of the Packers' big four pass catchers -- Nelson, Cobb, James Jones, Jermichael Finley -- who stayed healthy all year. That meant that, even without Aaron Rodgers always around, Nelson could get regular touches, leading to his eight touchdowns and career-high 1,314 yards. If the Packers stay healthy in 2014, there might not be quite as many looks going Nelson's way. He's still high-end, but there's a chance he falls off this year.
Julio Jones, Falcons
In three seasons, Jones has missed 14 games, and been an injury-related non-factor in a handful of others. He’s an elite talent, one of the top few in the game, but he’s battled foot injuries, and foot injuries of a sort that don’t traditionally heal quickly. Anyone taking Jones has to do so with the knowledge that, great as he is, he’s one of the greater injury risks out there.
I covered my hesitancy with Cooper a few weeks back; basically, Cooper got a huge chunk of his value out of two games, as much as almost any receiver in the league. You want consistency from a receiver, and failing that, you at least want more than two of the big-time games. If Cooper can't reproduce his big games -- and they were as much about Nick Foles' unsustainable season as Cooper's -- he won't be worth much.
Maybe I’m too harsh on EJ Manuel, but I’d be hard-pressed to find a worse situation for Watkins to succeed in than the one he got. Manuel isn’t the strong-armed quarterback the rookie receiver could use. On top of that ... dude’s a rookie receiver. There is the occasional A.J. Green who is great right away, but receivers often take a little time to develop into the stars they will end up being. I like Watkins, and I’d take him as a bench player with potential, but he scares me too much to rely on him.
Marvin Jones, Bengals
Much like Cooper, a huge chunk of Jones' value came in a tiny sample; outside of his Week 8 game against the Jets, he had only 590 yards and six scores on the season. Anyone taking him and expecting the 10 scores he had a year ago is weighting a single game way too highly, in my opinion.
Julian Edelman, Patriots
Edelman was a huge success in 2013, in part because, you know, who the heck else was Tom Brady going to throw to? Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski couldn't stay healthy, Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson were unproven rookies, Aaron Hernandez was ... elsewhere. Edelman played very well in his own right, but with another year under the belts of the rookies, Brandon LaFell now in the fold and apparent health for the big names, there might not be as many looks for Edelman.
There was enough going on in Denver a season ago for Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, Julius Thomas and Knowshon Moreno all to be heavily involved in the offense. Of course, that was also a record-breaking offense that had enough to go around because they were, you know, breaking records. If Peyton Manning and Co. fall off a bit this year, someone will suffer. Sanders is in Decker's role now and Montee Ball is in Moreno's. If there's an odd man out in the whole equation, it would seem to be Sanders. Don't expect him to live up to Decker's standards.
Torrey Smith, Ravens
Smith set a career high in yards last year with 1,128; he hadn't topped 855 in either of his other two years. Part of that was due to the absence of a capable running mate, because Anquan Boldin left for San Francisco in the offseason. With him gone and Dennis Pitta hurt, plus the running game struggling mightily, the Ravens didn't really have anyone to go to but Smith. This year, Pitta is healthy, and Steve Smith has been added to the offense. Torrey Smith is still likely the No. 1, but he might sink this year.
