Running back is relatively scarce these days, leaving fantasy owners constantly searching for the next big hit. Last year we saw Knowshon Moreno, Zac Stacy and several other running backs pay off for owners who grabbed these players late in drafts or claimed them off waivers. The same thing will happen in 2014.
2014 fantasy football running back sleepers
Running backs are the backbone of fantasy football, and it is essential to find players further down the draft. We take a look at some guys behind “the guys” that could help you out.
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Figuring out who will break out next, though, it an imperfect practice. When owners reach the end of drafts, they’re often selecting players who they’re just hoping come through at some point. You need to narrow down your search and find situations where backup running backs can eventually thrive.
Four years ago I selected Arian Foster in the last round of one of my redraft leagues. Steve Slaton was supposed to be the No. 1 back, but wasn't a promising lock to start all year. Drafting Foster at the end offered no risk with potentially huge reward. It paid off.
Below I’ve pointed out six running backs I think have a chance to either hold some standalone value or break out given the right scenario in 2014. These backs don’t cost much and could look like brilliant moves at the end of the season.
If you go back to the weeks leading up to the Giants preseason opener, you would rarely see Williams getting selected in mock drafts. Even though he's gaining some tractions after rushing for 48 yards and a touchdown on seven carries, he's still the RB50 (pick 12.09) in mock drafts.
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Let's not get carried away by his first performance of the preseason against the Bills' second-string defense. Rashad Jennings is still a valuable starter. However, with the recent news of David Wilson being shut down for 2014 (and possibly his career), Williams' value increases.
Williams is a one-trick pony, but he’s good at the only trick he knows. Tom Coughlin likes his power running backs. Despite the talk of using a three-receiver base, the Giants showed plenty of power runs in the preseason opener. Williams is best suited for that type of work.
After Tiki Barber finished his time in New York, Coughlin began working with a running back by committee. Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward each saw a sizable amount of carries in 2007 and 2008. Ahmad Bradshaw eventually took over to split time with Jacobs. If Coughlin has two reliable backs, he'll utilize them.
Jennings should remain in control of the lead duties, but Williams is going to get his chances each week. If you’re grabbing him when your draft is getting into double-digit rounds, you’re getting a great value.
Starks was incredibly efficient in limited action last season. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he averaged 0.46 points per opportunity (PPO) on 99 total touches. Jamaal Charles finished with a PPO of 0.47, in case you need a reference. Starks also ranked fourth among qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt.
Eddie Lacy is clearly the workhorse in the Packers backfield. He's a first-round pick in most leagues. But if he were to miss any time, Starks would instantly enter the RB2 range.
Lacy had six carries from the 1-yard line. Another notable stat from PFF, Lacy finished sixth overall among running backs in opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (oTD). The Packers put their starting running back in position to score often.
Starks doesn’t hold much value in his current situation, but he remains a top handcuff.
It’s not easy to consider Hill a sleeper with so many analysts backing him right now, but his average draft position (ADP) is still low enough to warrant the discussion. Hill is being drafted as pick 9.08 in mocks. He’s worth more than a ninth-round selection.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis finished 2013 with 220 carries with a paltry 3.4 yards per carry. Hill is working ahead of him in camp. The Bengals didn't draft Hill in Round 2 to sit and watch as a rookie. He'll be taking significant reps every week.
Per PFF, Green-Ellis ranked No. 14 among running backs in oTD last year. I expect Giovani Bernard to see an expanded role in his second season, but Hill is a powerful runner who can thrive around the goal line. He scored 28 touchdowns over the past two years in the SEC.
The Bengals ranked No. 8 in rushing attempts in 2013 (keep in mind some teams ahead of them had mobile quarterbacks who added to the carries total). New offensive coordinator Hugh Jackson wants to run and control the ball. Hill is going to be an important piece. Green-Ellis is still in the mix, but I can’t see him cutting into Hill’s reps too much, assuming he even makes the final roster.
Steven Jackson is nearing the end of his career. He already suffered another hamstring injury in camp (the hamstring he didn't hurt last year), and at the age of 31, he's certainly not a lock to remain in control of the Falcons' backfield anymore.
Freeman is a significant upgrade to Jacquizz Rodgers. The rookie played a major role in Florida State’s championship run last season. Go back and watch some of his highlights. He has terrific vision and already excels in pass protection.
While Freeman is officially listed as the fourth running back on the Falcons' first depth chart, owners shouldn't be deterred. Antone Smith is a special teams asset who rarely sees reps on offense. Rodgers is solid in pass protection, but Freeman will be able to overtake him on the roster.
Freeman is a good receiver who could hold flex value even as a backup. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting later in the season if things go his way. He’s currently a ninth-round pick in mock drafts. If he makes it to double-digit rounds in your draft, jump on the opportunity.
You might not be familiar with White after he was stuck in a timeshare in college with Montee Ball and Melvin Gordon. White averaged 6.24 yards per carry at Wisconsin while working to become a reliable pass protector and receiver (39 receptions as a senior).
Obviously Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley are in White's way for 2014. Fortunately for the rookie, he's already making some noise in camp. ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss said it's been "notable how many repetitions he's seeing in practice, especially on the goal line."
Vereen and Ridley will be free agents after 2014. The Patriots probably won't be spending a ton of money keeping both around. It wouldn't be a surprise to see White take meaningful reps during the season as the Patriots prepare him for what could be a much larger role in 2015.
White isn’t even being drafted in a good amount of leagues right now. His ADP is likely to rise with more positive news out of camp and preseason play, but he’s worth stashing in redraft leagues if you’re searching for late-round fliers.
The appeal here is greater for dynasty owners, but Hyde has the potential to develop nicely for redraft leagues. A few factors are helping to fuel his stock upward.
- Kendall Hunter is already out for the season.
- LaMichael James dislocated his elbow. He will reportedly be ready for Week 1, but he was never much of a threat to steal carries.
- Marcus Lattimore is still a mystery. He isn't practicing, and there's no telling when he'll be ready for snaps in a regular season game.
Finally we have Frank Gore, another 31-year-old back in decline. Gore finished 11 games (including the playoffs) in 2013 with under 4.0 yards per carry. He forced just 25 missed tackles on 292 touches, finishing with one of PFF's lowest elusive ratings for running backs.
Gore still managed nine touchdowns, though, and will continue to lead the 49ers' backfield. However, there have been rumors of Gore seeing 50 fewer carries than last season, while Hyde is constantly praised by his coaching staff. For an RB45 in mock drafts, Hyde is worth his current ADP.
Gore played all 16 games in each of the past three seasons, so expecting an injury from the veteran running back seems unlikely. Hyde will still get touches, though. This duo will be one owners should keep an eye on.
