The Sack: SB Nation’s fantasy football mailbag is in preseason form!
Got fantasy football questions? Come to SB Nation’s Fantasy War Room, or tweet @TheSackSBN for answers. Every Thursday, a few will be pulled and answered here.
Before I get going with questions, I’ll ask one to myself, since the following event happened after I closed questions off.
Dear The Sack,
What can we make of Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount's possession charges? Will they be suspended? How does this apply to my draft strategy?
Sincerely,
Also The Sack
Well, me, the truth is it's hard to predict how the shield will react to these sorts of things. Sometimes it lets the legal system play out. Other times, it won't. For example, Dwayne Bowe had a possession charge on Nov. 10, 2013, and did not receive league discipline until Aug. 15, 2014. Things could be a little different with Bell also receiving a DUI, but the point is, it's impossible to know for sure when it's coming.
That established, I'd be a little more conservative with drafting Bell, but if he slips into the late third/early fourth or lower, I'd pull the trigger. Chances are if you have him as your RB3, you probably have the best stable of backs in your league. Blount remains a late-round flier, but he's never been a handcuff I've had my eye on. I'd much rather get my hands on Knile Davis, Bernard Pierce, Carlos Hyde, Christine Michael and the like.
(Also, I hope anyone who uses LeGarrette Blunt in the comments takes it upon themselves to ban said selves)
AND NOW TO QUESTIONS FROM PEOPLE.
.@TheSackSBN Jay Cutler or Matthew Stafford?
— Chris Bach (@Chris_M_Bach) August 20, 2014 I'll take this moment to remind people to not hold a fantasy grudge, which is something I should have against Matthew Stafford. I am positive that every time I've been desperate for him to throw for a touchdown, he hasn't. And I'm just as sure that not one of his 29 touchdowns came during times when I actually needed the fantasy points. He, Doug Martin and Julio Jones were the reasons I scream-cried in my shower while in the fetal position every Monday morning.
I actually like Stafford though, and I don't think he's a candidate for negative regression despite his 634 pass attempts. The Lions may have replaced OC Scott Linehan, but did so with Joe Lombardi, one of four people in the world who called more passing plays than Linehan did in 2013.
What I don’t like is that Stafford isn’t exactly an elite talent, yet he’s being drafted like one. He’s the fourth QB off the board and is going on average in the fourth round. So what this really boils down to is your draft philosophy. Quarterback remains the deepest position in fantasy football, and you’ll find plenty who will keep you in contention in the mid-to-later rounds.
For my money, I would much rather get a wide receiver in that range; guys like Victor Cruz, Roddy White and Andre Johnson can all be had around Stafford's ADP. Give me Cutler in the ninth round with a potent Bears offense instead.
I love the "real" value of these guys much more than "fantasy" value. Cooks is going in the sixth round, which is entirely too high for a rookie receiver who is likely not finishing higher than third on his team in targets. Let him be someone else's problem when he's DeSean Jackson one week and Tavon Austin the next.
Benjamin, however, will likely lead the Panthers in targets, and he has enough raw talent to do something big with them. Our own Stephen White can explain that a lot better than I could, but the point is, there is not only talent, but a clear path to the top of the depth chart. I've been winding up with Benjamin a lot in drafts at his low-risk ADP in round nine.
A word of caution, though: It's hard to expect anything from rookie wide receivers, even if high draft picks have been invested on them by their respective teams. Alshon Jeffery caught 24 passes in his first season. Michael Floyd caught 45, which is OK. A.J. Jenkins caught a bucket of grief and literally nothing else.
Hang on.
/pulls resume out of breast pocket
/writes Photoshop under “Things I can do”
/folds into paper airplane and flies it to the jobs
But yeah, in Benjamin’s case, I’m willing to make that gamble once the later rounds commence. Don’t expect him to be Keenan Allen, though it’s certainly possible. Remember that Allen’s the exception, not the rule.
Great question. I'd still go with DeMarco Murray, who, barring health concerns, is a candidate to get 300 touches this season amid a potent offense that will get into its fair share of shootouts. His upside alone makes him too attractive to pass up in the second round. I'd be content with taking him at the end of the first. Gio Bernard and Alfred Morris are fine picks as well.
If you were to pick Jeffery or Brown in the second, either will be fine for your team. But which scenario sounds better? For purposes of this exercise, let's say you landed Eddie Lacy at 1.06. Your choices are:
- Draft Morris/Gio/Murray at 2.07. The wide receivers with ADPs after 3.06 are Keenan Allen, Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Roddy White and Larry Fitzgerald. Your aunt gives you a call and commends your savvy.
- Draft Jeffery or Brown at 2.07. Next pick is 3.06. That is past the ADPs of Montee Ball, Bernard, Murray, Morris, Arian Foster and Andre Ellington. The next four running backs there are Reggie Bush, Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings, and C.J. Spiller. Your aunt gives you a call and does not commend your savvy.
So what it comes down to is, would you rather have the next wave of WRs or RBs? Do you want a compliment from your aunt or no? To me, that pool of WRs looks much deeper than the RBs that can be had in the third round. And if you have a chance to pick from those receivers with an already loaded fantasy backfield, it just makes your job that much easier.
@TheSackSBN I have a draft this weekend and there's still no news on Josh Gordon. Where (if at all) should I look to take him in the draft?
— Eric Tries Too Hard (@EricTries) August 20, 2014 Can you push your draft back to the next decade? Because that is the earliest I think we can expect the ruling. Also, games will not be held either since the NFL can just straight-up do that and we are nothing but peasants. Revenue sales will still increase by 400 percent.
If this is a keeper league, easy answer: I’m taking Gordon in the middle rounds so I can feast next year with him in my lineup. But assuming you’re doing a redraft, I can’t convince myself to draft him earlier than any of my handcuffs, which means you’re looking at a very late ADP for him.
It's been said that Gordon's suspension is going to be "all or nothing," so I would group him in with sleepers who could do the same thing. Group him around the late ADPs of Justin Hunter, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins have all had people raving about their talent levels. But if none of them catch 40 passes this year, I don't think anyone will be shocked. Disappointed? Sure. But not shocked.
Hey, guys, thank you for reading my debut edition of The Sack. If you would like to be in next week’s The Sack, please post your fantasy questions in the comments or tweet me at @TheSackSBN. Be sure to also visit SB Nation’s Fantasy War Room so I can pull questions from there as well.
