We’re only three weeks into the 2014 season, and already some fantasy owners are ready to give up. Top draft picks who don’t produce will cause that kind of letdown.
Fantasy football trade advice: Over/underperformers to start 2014
We’re taking a look at players who have overachieved to start 2014, along with the big names who have let us down through the first three weeks.
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But it’s still way too early to give up on some players. We only have a small sample size so far. Here, we will look at some of the top underperformers and overperformers from the first three weeks of 2014 and discuss what action to take with these players going forward.
Underperformers
A huge game to start 2014 did not lead to much success in Weeks 2 and 3. Stafford opened the year with 346 passing yards and two touchdowns. The past two weeks he has one touchdown and four turnovers.
Reasons to buy: The Lions' offense is built to score plenty of points, and new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is still getting settled with his new team. There's no reason to panic yet.
Stafford's stock is falling after a miserable outing against Green Bay. But with Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell surrounding him, Stafford has the weapons to be a QB1. He already has 114 pass attempts.
The 2014 season has not been kind to Lacy. His owners have been disappointed after expectations were so high going into his second season.
Through three games, Lacy has rushed for 113 yards on 36 carries. He has yet to rush for 50 yards in a single game. The Packers aren't feeding him the ball like most of us anticipated, leaving owners wondering what to do with Lacy.
The Packers are one-dimensional. They don't have a tight end making an impact in the receiving game. They're not running the ball. They're solely relying on Aaron Rodgers and the receiving corps to carry the load.
Lacy is averaging 2.51 yards after contact per carry, which is actually a better mark than he finished with in 2013. He also has as many forced missed tackles as Le'Veon Bell. A bounce back is coming, and it could easily start in Week 4 against a poor Chicago Bears run defense.
The plan for Ball to step right in and emulate Knowshon Moreno’s 2013 campaign hasn’t quite gone the way owners would’ve liked. Ball has 165 yards rushing and one touchdown on 49 carries. He also hasn’t caught more than three passes in one game.
Reasons to buy: Ball ranks tied for third in forced missed tackles on carries among running backs with 14. He faced that same Seattle defense that kept Lacy in check, and he averaged 5.0 yards per carry in Week 2 against the Chiefs.
Fortunately, though, Ball is still locked in as the No. 1 back. He might not be eclipsing 100 yards every game, but he plays in an offense that will get him near the goal line often. Owners should buy low on Ball if they can.
Continuing with the Broncos talk, Thomas isn’t looking like a first-round pick either. He’s only been able to haul in 13 of his 27 targets. His highest single-game receiving total after three weeks is 62 yards.
Reasons to buy: You shouldn’t need a list of reasons to hold onto Thomas, but I’ll give you a few anyway. Thomas recently admitted he needs to work harder after acknowledging his slow start. He knows he’s not living up to his potential right now.
Also, Thomas' yards after catch average and average depth of target (aDOT, from Pro Football Focus) are both down from 2013. Peyton Manning hasn't been looking for him downfield as often and Thomas is still waiting break open his first screen pass for a touchdown. You can safely buy one of the best wide receivers in the league.
Fitzgerald caught 82 passes and 10 touchdowns in 2013. His current pace suggest he won’t come close to those numbers this time around. Fitzgerald has 10 catches without a touchdown through three games.
Reasons to hold: Fitzgerald is only 31, but he's not looking like the same star receiver we're accustomed to watching. Michael Floyd saw one more target than Fitzgerald in the first three games, and the 24-year-old continues to progress in the Cardinals passing game.
Carson Palmer has missed time, but it looks like he'll be back when the Cardinals return from their bye. Fitzgerald is better than the numbers suggest. He and Floyd have been kept out of the end zone, and rookie John Brown has three touchdowns. Something is wrong with that picture.
While I don’t think Fitzgerald is much more than a WR3 right now, he will improve and eventually score a few touchdowns. Selling him right now would probably gain little in return, so the best strategy here is to hold.
Rob Gronkowski
It feels odd calling someone who plays limited snaps an underperformer, but Gronkowski is still worrying some owners. He only has 11 catches for 116 yards to start the year.
Reasons to buy: The Patriots are easing Gronk back into his regular routine. No one knew how much he would play to begin 2014, but he has at least scored in two of three games.
You don’t have to be a fantasy expert to know better days are coming. Recent reports suggest Gronk wants to play more, and he’s ready to take on the task. One of the best red-zone targets in the league, all owners should look to buy low on Gronkowski before he goes off.
Overperformers
Jay Cutler
Cutler threw at least two touchdowns in each of his first three games to start 2014. He salvaged his Week 2 matchup with the 49ers by throwing three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter. Cutler is a top five quarterback at the moment.
Reasons to hold: If you combine Cutler and Josh McCown’s numbers from 2013, they would’ve been an upper-tier QB1. Cutler is healthy now and solely in charge of one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.
Assuming you grabbed Cutler later in your draft, he’s serving as a major-value pick right now. Owners should hold onto him and ride his success in Marc Trestman’s offense. The upside is real.
Bradshaw looks like a running back reborn this season, outperforming Trent Richardson in all three games to start the year. The veteran has 150 yards rushing, 114 yards receiving and three touchdown receptions.
Reasons to sell: There are a few tougher matchups on the horizon, Richardson doesn’t look as bad as he did last season and Bradshaw is always a risk to get injured.
He has back-to-back weeks with receiving touchdowns. That’s not a trend that can sustain itself throughout the season. If he’s not scoring touchdowns, Bradshaw’s value drops off a bit. You should cash in now for a higher-end running back.
After combining to rush for 110 yards in his first two games, Jennings exploded for 176 yards and a touchdown on 34 carries against the Texans. He hasn't ceded many carries to rookie Andre Williams and appears to be one of the few workhorse running backs around.
Reasons to buy: If you’re worried about Week 3 being an outlier, keep in mind Jennings faced the Lions and Cardinals to start 2014. He schedule looks beneficial to his success for most of his remaining games.
Jennings is versatile enough to provide points in the receiving game as well. The Giants clearly trust him in every aspect of the offense. If you own Jennings, you shouldn't be looking to sell unless the offer is too good to pass up.
Jeremy Maclin
Welcome back, Jeremy. Through three games, Maclin has 16 receptions for 296 yards and three touchdowns. Nick Foles targeted Maclin 31 times in that span, tying him for No. 7 among all receivers in that category.
Reasons to buy: Maclin's targets have been 11, 11 and 9 respectively to start the year. We saw what the Eagles did with DeSean Jackson last year, turning him into a fantasy stud. It looks like Maclin is sitting in the same position.
Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense ensures the Eagles will throw the ball often and score a lot of points. You want receivers in those situations (obviously). Maclin isn’t showing any ill-effects of missing last season with a knee injury. His numbers might come down a bit, as he won’t score a touchdown every week, but owners should feel confident trusting him long-term.
Kelvin Benjamin
Rookie receivers often take some time to adjust to NFL life, but Benjamin jumped right in with six catches, 92 yards and a touchdown to start his career. In three games, he has 27 targets, 253 yards and two touchdowns.
Reasons to buy: While rookies are often volatile, especially at receiver, Benjamin looks like the real deal. His hands haven't been the most reliable asset as he's struggled with drops, but Cam Newton continues to target him often.
Benjamin is a serious WR2 contender with his current pace. The Panthers' run game isn't doing the team any favors, and Newton needs someone to step up in the passing game. Especially with Benjamin's size (6'5), end zone targets should continue to come his way.
With 17 catches, 233 yards and two touchdowns, few owners likely saw these numbers coming from Walker. Jake Locker has targeted Walker 26 times through three games, far ahead of last year’s pace.
Reasons to sell: Tight end isn’t a deep position, but Walker is coming back down to earth after a 10-catch game in Week 2. Last year he averaged 9.5 yards per catch and finished with 60 receptions in 15 games.
Packaging Walker to grab a better tight end is a great option. The Titans' offense will eventually get the run game and its receivers more involved, leaving Walker as a boom-or-bust option. Find consistency elsewhere.
Martellus Bennett
Cutler is showing great rapport with his starting tight end, targeting him 26 times and connecting for four touchdowns to start the year. Bennett is on pace to beat his mark of 65 receptions from 2013.
Reasons to hold: Bennett has never caught more than five touchdowns in a single season. As he’s already one away from that career best, it’s hard to see the scoring trend sustaining itself.
The Bears have Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte all vying for touches. All three are great red zone options, too. However, Bennett is proving to be a reliable end zone target. Keeping him on your team is probably the best decision going forward, but temper your expectations.
