I finished the rest of The Ticker like two hours ago, then realized I'd never written an intro. I've now sat here staring at my screen (and alternately staring at the New England Patriots' beatdown at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs, which is far funnier) and trying to figure out an interesting way to lead this week's piece.
The Ticker, Week 5: The waiver wire and ... Kyle Orton!
This week’s trip through the waiver wire features some big news, but the biggest news is my little Kyle-Wyle pal getting the start in Buffalo. Missed ya, buddy.
Spencer Platt
I failed.
So, without a cool little short story to tell, I’m just going to talk about a few things on my mind in the world of football:
- Y'all have no idea how hard it was for me to not write about Kyle Orton this week. Longtime Ticker readers (or Twitter followers, or people who watch me walk around my house with my old Orton Denver Broncos jersey on) know that Orton is my favorite li'l dude, and I thought his career was over this summer. So news that the Buffalo Bills are going to start Orton next week was great. I think it also helps Sammy Watkins, et al, if only because Orton can't be less accurate than EJ Manuel, but I couldn't in good conscience recommend him in fantasy. (There, wrote about him anyway. Nyah nyah nyah.)
- I have seven fantasy teams that play eight weekly matchups. I won six games this week. I made $20 in FanDuel. In my season-long against-the-spread bet against my buddy Travis, I made up five games in the standings with a strong showing. In ESPN's Gridiron Challenge, I had my best week of the season. The Indianapolis Colts won. Ultimately, I couldn't have had a much better week. And yet, in my longtime league, the one I care about the most, freakin' Jess had Aaron Rodgers, Antonio Brown, Steve Smith Sr., Mike Wallace and Le'Veon Bell. I got beaten down and fell to 0-4. As good as everything else is going, that's the thing that's stuck in my craw. Sigh.
- Everyone was in on Steve Smith Sr. Sunday. There's no one in the NFL any of us would less want to have it out for us, and playing against his former team seemed like a recipe for "Wow." And even with that, Smith's box score line was nuts. There's no analysis there; that was just crazy and neat.
- Check out the chart below. On the left is the list of 50 percent owned players who were on a Week 4 bye; on the right is the same list for Week 5.
I don't mean to tell the NFL how to do its job (okay, I totally am), but maybe that schedule wasn't the way to go, guys?Montee Ball
Giovani Bernard
Jordan Cameron
Andy Dalton
Andre Ellington
Larry Fitzgerald
Michael Floyd
A.J. Green
Percy Harvin
Steven Hauschka
Jeremy Hill
Marshawn Lynch
Peyton Manning
Emmanuel Sanders
Zac Stacy
Ben Tate
Demaryius Thomas
Julius Thomas
Wes Welker
Terrance West
Russell Wilson
Arizona D/ST
Cincinnati D/ST
Denver D/ST
Seattle D/STLamar Miller
Knowshon Moreno
Mike Wallace
Anyway, this is The Ticker. It’s a trip through the waiver wire each week with a stock market bent. This week, I’m including relevant tweets from the world of football in each bio, with points that highlight my own. As a reminder, there are six categories:
Stocks I’m buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I believe it
Stocks I’m not buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I don’t believe it
Stocks I’m selling: high-owned players who struggled, and I’m bailing on them a bit
Stocks I’m not selling: high-owned players who struggled, but I still trust them
Hedges: handcuffs; low-owned guys who have a starter in front of them, but injuries or starter awfulness could change things
Futures market: low-owned guys without an obvious line to fantasy productivity yet, but there are things that could change in that department
(All ownership percentages are as of Monday morning.)
Stocks I’m buying
Jerick McKinnon, RB, MIN (15 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues)
Could make a case for Jerick McKinnon as best all-around athlete in the 2014 draft (no exaggeration). Fun w/ ball in his hands.
— Chris Sprow (@SprowESPN) September 28, 2014 That’s really it with McKinnon. He’s a better athlete than Matt Asiata. Even with Asiata scoring three touchdowns Sunday and generally doing great, McKinnon nearly doubled his yards per carry average. He’s just better than Asiata, and while he might not have the No. 1 job right away, he’ll get it.
Mike Glennon, QB, TB (4 percent)
"I'm Mike Glennon, I am here to throw the ball over the head of all the giant receivers they've provided for me. How do you do?"
— Daniel Kelley (@danieltkelley) September 28, 2014 OK, so that’s on me. I hadn’t seen much of the Tampa Bay-Pittsburgh game on Sunday, then saw one drive and decided Glennon was playing horribly. I watched the next drive, and Glennon looked far better, and I immediately regretted the tweet. He’s a better option than Josh McCown had been, and while I don’t advocate using him in standard leagues (10, 12 teams), in deeper leagues he’s very interesting.
Andre Holmes, WR, OAK (3 percent)
Andre Holmes was the #22 WR in PPR from W13-W16 last year, catching 19 passes for 328 yds & a TD. With Moore on the outs, he’s a good add.
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) September 29, 2014 It was easy to forget, with Holmes being one of four possible receivers in Oakland -- a bad offense anyway -- but he did close fast last year. Now, with Rod Streater out for who knows how long and Denarius Moore about as popular with Oakland as Aaron Boone in Boston, and with the Oakland running game nonexistent, it’s down to Holmes and James Jones. He’s a deep play, but he’s interesting.
Stocks I’m not buying
Andre Williams, RB, NYG (15 percent)
And here comes the misplaced narrative Andre Williams is overtaking Rashad Jennings. Not even close. RJ ran the ball 34 times just Sunday.
— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) September 26, 2014 The New York Giants had Thursday's game well in hand when Williams starting getting more touches over Rashad Jennings. There was no need to push the starter in a game they already had won on a short week after a billionty-twelve carries. Jennings is The Guy for New York, and Williams hasn't cracked into that at all yet.
Marvin Jones, WR, CIN (15 percent)
Marvin Jones' 2014 projection adjustment - 16 games: 56-764-6 ... 13 games: 46-622-5 #bengals
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) August 12, 2014 I’m jumping back almost two months for that tweet because all anyone is saying now is “Jones back from injury soon wheeeeeee.” But that projection comes out to 3.5 catches and roughly 50 yards a game over the rest of the season for Jones, who had 712 yards and 10 scores last year. Seventeen percent of those yards and 40 percent of those touchdowns also came in one game. You can’t count on him week to week, and you can’t count on career games to recur, either.
Jarius Wright, WR, MIN (1 percent)
Teddy Bridgewater looked good (317 yards, rush TD), but there was too much Jarius Wright 8-132 (10) and not enough Cordarrelle 2-38 (4).
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) September 29, 2014 When I included Cordarrelle Patterson in the "Selling" category last week, it wasn't because there are better options in the Minnesota offense. Patterson is the best offensive player the Vikings have. So even with Wright looking good on Sunday, the offense is ultimately going to have to run through Teddy Bridgewater and Patterson.
Stocks I’m selling
LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI (100 percent)
LeSean McCoy's first 4 games constitute the "worst start by a regular NFL running back in more than two decades." http://t.co/IKxt5RfxXe
— C.D. Carter (@CDCarter13) September 29, 2014 I don't put all, or even a huge chunk, of McCoy's awful start on him; the Philadelphia Eagles' O-line has been decimated the last couple of weeks, hurting the entire offense. One returning lineman will help this week, but there's work to be done. If you have McCoy, you're probably stuck, but if someone will offer you something like draft-day value in a trade for him, take it.
Cam Newton, QB, CAR (95 percent)
If Cam Newton's name weren't Cam Newton, he'd be a streaming quarterback option.
— C.D. Carter (@CDCarter13) September 29, 2014 That's it, really. This isn't CAM NEWTON anymore. Week 3 was Newton's first career game with fewer than four rushes; Week 4 was his second. And that's happened while the Panthers' running backs are all falling over dead around him. If he's not running now, when will he?
Stocks I’m not selling
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET (100 percent)
Calvin Johnson is ACTIVE. Has had "Q" tag 20 times in his career, played 14 of those G's, and totaled 9 TDs in them. Start for sure!
— Tristan H. Cockcroft (@SultanofStat) September 28, 2014 Cockcroft tweeted that before Sunday's game, obviously. Before Johnson had only two targets and 12 yards. Before the Detroit Lions admitted after the game that he was basically only on the field as a decoy. But it made sense. The Lions have done this a few times in Johnson's career, because they understand that any time that monster is on the field he has to be closely monitored. In the long run, I have no doubt he'll be fine, and he'll be himself.
Arian Foster, RB, HOU (99 percent)
Arian Foster had 36 snaps against the Bills. Alfred Blue had 32. #Texans
— Dave Zangaro (@DZangaro) September 29, 2014 Alfred Blue’s stat line looked good as the Houston starting running back in Week 3, but his game tape was less impressive. It definitely didn’t look like a running back who should’ve even slightly been challenging Foster for touches. So when he’s on the field almost as much as Foster, it’s not a statement on the players’ relative talents; it’s “Foster’s still hurt.” Give him another week and he’ll be fine.
Hedges
Branden Oliver, RB, SD (3 percent)
McCoy on Branden Oliver "He did a great job. He's going to get better w/time. He's a strong runner...he did a nice job with the screen game"
— Marty Caswell (@MartyCaswell) September 29, 2014 Donald Brown has looked pretty bad through two games. Donald Brown, before last year, had looked bad for a career. As a Colts fan, I enjoyed Good Donald Brown, but I’m not sure that’s a player I’m counting on returning. Danny Woodhead is already done for the year, and while Ryan Mathews should be back reasonably soon, it’s not like he has a long, storied history of health. Oliver could see a lot more use.
Ka'Deem Carey, RB, CHI (1 percent)
Ka’Deem Carey posted 72 yards on a surprisingly high 14 carries. Must-handcuff for Matt Forte owners.
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) September 29, 2014 Look through the box score of Sunday's game when you get the chance. Every offensive skill player who was a real part of the game was one of the stars -- Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte, Martellus Bennett, Alshon Jeffery. And then there was Carey. The rookie had two carries in the first three weeks before seeing the field Sunday, and it wasn't garbage time, mop-up time, usage just for usage. He was part of the offense. If you own Forte, you have to get Carey. (Also, I just realized I quote John Paulsen three times in these tweets. And I don't even follow him on Twitter. Weird.)
Futures market
Bobby Rainey, RB, TAM (42 percent)
Steelers had been giving up 5.1 YPC. Do not have Ryan Shazier. Doug Martin "rumbles" for 2.9 yards per carry.
— Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin) September 29, 2014 Whatever, Doug Martin. I'm done. Yes, you got a touchdown Sunday, and that's great, but that YPC average is just embarrassing. I do think the Buccaneers go to Rainey much more going forward. Hold on to him.
Marqise Lee, WR, JAC (4 percent)
Marqise Lee is going to be terrific. If Bortles is the starter, Lee has potential to score like a #1 WR.
— NFL Philosophy (@NFLosophy) August 28, 2014 Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson have been the names so far for the Jaguars, but Lee is the best receiver they have, with Cecil Shorts III back on the shelf for some duration. Lee is hurt as well, and looks unlikely to play Week 5, but I expect him back on the field after that, and I expect him to be the Jaguars' best receiver whenever he is.
