Earlier this morning, Daniel Kelley and John Daigle made the mistake of willingly releasing Part I of their email conversation from this past weekend to readers. This is Part 2 of that conversation.
A 2015 fantasy football preview of sorts, part 2
The health concerns of Calvin Johnson and the Comeback Player of the Year highlight Part 2 of the first-ever email exchange between our own Daniel Kelley and John Daigle.
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Where does Gronk go in drafts?
KELLEY: To me, he’s a first-rounder.
DAIGLE: I actually think we should be asking something more along the lines of who’s next to go? At the latest, Gronk gets drafted just outside the top 10. But remember, the two that are universally supposed to come off the board right after (Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas, of course) both had their fair share of letdowns at some point during the year.
From Week 11 on, Graham scored 2.9, 16.7, 0, 2.5, 8.7, 9.3, and 5.4 fantasy points, in that order. WHAT DO YOU DO WITH THAT??!! On that same note, Thomas played four games over the final seven weeks of the season and scored exactly 6.6 points. You remember the War Room during that time as well as I do. Nearly every day, not one, but dozens of readers would stop by and ask that dreaded question: If Graham/Thomas plays, do I start him? And what did we do? We sank our heads, sighed, and responded, “Yes.”
KELLEY: Yeah, that’s fair. I think you can argue Gronk outside of the first round for those who are risk-averse, but most will have him there. As for the other guys, lord, I don’t know. A lot of that depends on Julius Thomas’ situation, of course, but either way, I can’t take him inside the first five or six rounds. Graham, though? He’s still a second-, third-rounder at absolute worst. I trust him.
What to do with ADP?
KELLEY: A lot depends on where he ends up, but I wouldn’t touch him. He’ll be 30 and coming off of a year away, and I don’t think that’s a positive. Not in the first two rounds, which means I won’t end up with him.
DAIGLE: Depends where he goes, but my interest only begins after the second round. I realize we haven’t seen him play in quite some time, but I feel like everyone missed the note about him finishing as the No. 7 RB in 2013. Now, No. 7 isn’t anything to shun. It’s obviously better than most. Still, that was two seasons ago (an eternity in RB-years) and even then, he averaged just over 90 yards per game. He was good, but he wasn’t top-10 good. And that’s where you’ll have to consider him if you want to draft him.
KELLEY: Once again, I expected some disagreement here. I’ve seen some say he’s a consideration for No. 1 overall if he, for example, ends up in Dallas. I just don’t see how you comfortably run a guy off a year’s absence as your RB1.
What’s the big fantasy storyline for 2015?
KELLEY: Rise of the running backs. Guys like Carlos Hyde getting full-time gigs, plus maybe Devonta Freeman, Christine Michael. Tre Mason all year. Maybe Melvin Gordon. I think the position gets deeper than it has been in recent years.
DAIGLE: This won’t make for interesting conversation, but I completely agree. Although it’s clearly a passing league, I think the dropoff from grabbing your RB1 immediately (think Matt Forte or Le’Veon Bell) to waiting until the second or third round (think Justin Forsett or Giovani Bernard) is a steep one. This is also the part of the conversation where I remind everyone that I was driving the "PEYTON FIRST OVERALL OR DEATH" wagon last season. Sigh.
KELLEY: That sort of piggybacks on my point. If I'm right that the second, third tiers of running backs produce better in 2015 than they have in recent years, then sure, it won't be so crucial to get a stud at the top. I still think the Le'Veon Bell and Eddie Lacy and Jamaal Charles types will carry the day, but I could see a path to success with, say, Rob Gronkowski, Andrew Luck and A.J. Green as my first three picks.
Calvin presumed as healthy and the No. 1 option at WR is no longer a thing. How far, if at all, does he fall in your 2015 rankings?
DAIGLE: The way I see it, there’s going to be a rather large debate between Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham and Demaryius Thomas (contract situation pending), not in that order. But for the sake of argument, I can’t imagine having him in my top five. Did I mention I have Ryan Tannehill in the second tier? Is anyone going to take me seriously after reading that?
KELLEY: Hey, go ahead and draft Ryan Tannehill. I won’t have any problem playing against you then. Brian Hartline is a heck of a weapon. As for Megatron, I still think he's top five-ish, but right at the bottom of it. When healthy this year, he wasn't THAT far off his traditional production. You just can't count on that health week-to-week. Still, it's Calvin Johnson. He'll be a top-five, top-six wide receiver, and probably a second-rounder overall.
DAIGLE: You’re right. His name is Calvin Johnson. But for the first time in his career, he’s playing alongside a legitimate WR2. Golden Tate may have shined the most while Johnson was out, but even with Calvin in the lineup (they played 13 games together), Tate received 103 targets. Compare that to the 128 Johnson accumulated all season.
I’m not saying he’s a sure bet to fall out of the top five, but I think someone like Jordy Nelson or Julio Jones has a legitimate chance to surpass him. Even Tate’s presence has me thinking skeptically.
KELLEY: I haven’t done my wide receiver rankings yet to any great extent. I can say that I think Dez is going to be my No. 1 for next year. After that, I’ll probably go Brown, Nelson, D. Thomas and Johnson -- pending their team situations, of course. Jones might jump over Megatron as well. Still, I think you can go into the season with Johnson as your No. 1 receiver and be in good shape, not just scuffling by or anything.
And the 2015 Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year is …?
DAIGLE: Where’s the echo chamber? Just give me a second while I gather my thoughts and LESEAN MCCOY! Where do I begin? He was one of only two running backs to receive more than 300 carries last season, finished with the fourth-most yards per game, and all the while had three offensive linemen go M.I.A. for half the year. In fact, of those that played 16 games and averaged over 15 carries, he was the only one to finish with less than eight touchdowns (5). Now, I don’t know if that spells regression, but OH WAIT, YES I DO, REGRESSION, REGRESSION, REGRESSION!!!
KELLEY: McCoy is the easy answer, of course, which in no way means he's the wrong one. But I also expect a nice season from Victor Cruz, a bounce-back from Brandon Marshall, and even a return to relevance for Vernon Davis.
DAIGLE: If Davis were in store for a bounce-back year, wouldn't that mean Colin Kaepernick would as well? And did I just ruin your point about Davis with that one sentence? Seriously though, I wouldn't hesitate to grab Justin Hunter again. He might be the only receiver that advanced stats love and fantasy points hate (Brandon Gibson is shaking his head), but that won’t stop me from giving him one more go.
KELLEY: Yeah, but calling Justin Hunter a Comeback Player of the Year candidate implies he ever, you know, did anything to begin with. Hunter has never been anything but potential. I’m not going anywhere near him unless that wild Bill Simmons theory about Peyton in Tennessee happens. And sure, I’m fine imagining a Kaepernick rebound. He frustrated the absolute hell out of me last year, but dude, so much talent.
COMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON: PART 3!
