Earlier this morning, Daniel Kelley and John Daigle made the mistake of willingly releasing Part I and 2 of their email conversation from this past weekend to readers. This is the final part of that dialogue.
A 2015 fantasy football preview of sorts, Part 3
Super Bowl predictions and ‘The Office’ highlight the final part of the first ever email exchange between our own Daniel Kelley and John Daigle.
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Who works their way into the top tier at their respective position next season?
DAIGLE: Remember that one episode of "The Office" where Michael Scott eventually becomes fed up with the relocation of Holly? He marches into the executive office of David Wallace, sits down, explains his outrage, quits, and finishes the conversation with, "You have no idea how high I can fly." Well, just know if SB Nation fires me for placing Ryan Tannehill in the second tier, I’m not walking out without stating, "You have no idea how high I would’ve drafted Jeremy Hill."
KELLEY: So, you know, I never saw an episode of "The Office." I’m not much help there. But if watching the show would’ve made me putting Ryan dingdang Tannehill as a top-flight quarterback, I feel like I’m better off. As for other risers, I could definitely see Travis Kelce making the leap at tight end (that is not an original thought). Davante Adams, of course, if Cobb does move on. Jordan Matthews, because I think the Eagles have to get a better quarterback situation. DeAndre Hopkins makes another leap. And Cam Newton returns to the upper echelon.
DAIGLE: Can we delete everything we’ve typed up to this point and get straight into how you’ve never once watched an episode of “The Office”?
Cam Newton certainly makes sense. From Week 10 on, he actually averaged the second-most points among quarterbacks, finishing only behind Aaron Rodgers. And considering I was the only one to consistently rank DeAndre Hopkins over Andre Johnson during the first half of the season, I guess I have to back him again. See also: Matt Ryan (Kyle Shanahan), Jeremy Maclin (Matthews is worrisome, but I still consider Maclin that much better), Kelvin Benjamin (to an extent), Rashad Jennings, and not Trent Richardson.
KELLEY: Buddy of mine went back through my Twitter account a few weeks back and retweeted something I said when the Richardson trade happened -- that Richardson was the "piece the offense needed." So, you know, ouch. Speaking of which, though, and this guy will be the death of me, but Richardson is terrible, Ahmad Bradshaw is likely gone, and Dan Herron didn’t exactly light the world on fire -- if he can get healthy, why not Vick Ballard next year? You know, if the Colts don’t go out and sign one of the billion running backs out there.
Diving a little deeper, you know who intrigues me? Cody Latimer. If Peyton returns, the Broncos will still likely lose Welker and probably one of the Thomases. Latimer could see a big spike in usage.
DAIGLE: You just responded to me with two legible and well thought-out paragraphs, and not once did you mention that YOU'VE NEVER SEEN AN EPISODE OF "THE OFFICE." I'll give you until 2016 when I'm trying to put Derek Carr in the second tier, and if it hasn't happened by then, we'll really need to talk.
The thing is, and this holds true for the Colts over a number of years, I can only say "Why not?" about a particular individual in their backfield so many times before I finally throw in the towel. Dominic Rhodes: Why not? Joseph Addai If He Can Stay Healthy: Why not? Donald Brown: Why not? Trent Richardson: Why not? I believe I even gave the "Why not?" nod to Ballard two seasons ago before he lit the world on fire with 13 CARRIES FOR 63 YARDS. I think I’ve finally accepted that I’m just going to avoid the Colts' backfield moving forward. Why not?
KELLEY: That’s fair. The Colts' backfield has been frustrating often. But Ballard for his one healthy year was very good, as was Donald Brown last year, as was Ahmad Bradshaw this year, as was, to a lesser extent, Herron this year. I think that’s Herron’s peak, but a slightly better running back in an Andrew Luck offense should be good. I’m not saying Ballard would be an RB1 or even an RB2, but as a bench player/flex play, I could definitely see him as a sleeper.
What top-50 pick has the largest potential to bust from the gates?
DAIGLE: Man, that was loads of fun, and we had a good ride. But Justin Forsett, we need to talk.
KELLEY: Well, sure. Ain't no one in the world thinks Justin Forsett does that again. Who else, though? I think DeMarco Murray had way too many carries this year, and that will be seen next year. A lot of Mark Ingram's expectations will depend on his team, but I don't think I'll be getting anywhere near him. And assuming we're even close to right about Peyton Manning, how can you confidently put faith in Emmanuel Sanders? He seems primed for a big dropoff.
DAIGLE: Admittedly, I should never be allowed to talk about Mark Ingram. Pro Football Focus has always had him ranked as a solid back, but outside of being an above-average pass blocker, I just don’t see it. In my mind, last season was an anomaly, and I don’t see myself buying in unless there schedule looks somewhat ridiculous.
I think Arian Foster is a concern we need to get out front of. Over the past four seasons, only McCoy and Lynch have had more carries (you know, the comeback players we just discussed). It’s a miracle he only missed three games and even so, he still managed to morph into the Brian Westbrook of this generation. Can his friends invite him to the movies without immediately thinking he’s questionable to show? That’s a serious question I expect an answer to.
KELLEY: Aw, man. Late-season trades for Foster and Aaron Rodgers were the only salvation to a disaster season for one of my teams this year, to have them as keepers, so don’t start scaring me about ol’ boy. Honestly, you’re probably right that we should be scared of him, but he’s one of those guys who I’ll take in the first round and sink or swim with however he does. He’s scary, but he’s still so, so good.
Another prime candidate to maybe bust is Drew Brees. His fantasy numbers were not exciting this year. Most everyone assumes he’ll still be Drew Brees and still be a top-flight quarterback, but what if Graham gets hurt again? He just turned 36. Again, he’s a guy I’ll draft pretty highly and sink or swim, but you’ve got to be prepared for The End.
DAIGLE: I understand your concern, but the advanced numbers LOVED Brees. Despite the constant woes of the New Orleans' offense (and at home!), Brees finished the year ranked No. 4 in DYAR, No. 7 in DVOA, and No. 7 in QBR. Despite averaging the eighth-most yards per attempt (7.2) on the season, the Saints came rolling in with an abysmal 6.8 average at home. I realize most will shun those last few sentences, but I’m not ruling out that maybe, just maybe, New Orleans was the wonk team that we failed to catch going into the year. (In related news, I may or may not have already bet on their 2015 Over).
Shut up and make your Super Bowl prediction. (Don’t roll those eyes at me.)
DAIGLE: I mean, we have to, right? It’s not everyday we get the chance to become talking heads, so here goes nothing.
Allow me to preface this by saying I’ve had quite a good run during the postseason (which means absolutely nothing). Yes, I think the New England Patriots should be 3.5-4-point favorites. When you think about the injuries to both Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, Darrelle Revis covering Doug Baldin, Gronk (in general), and Bill Belichick inevitably taking Lynch out of the equation, it all makes sense. Having said that, I truly believe the Seattle Seahawks win in dominant fashion. Take the points (+1.5 as I’m writing this), take the over (currently 48), and I’m sorry for suggesting both of those things.
KELLEY: Everyone has an internal ranking of all 32 teams from favorite to least-favorite, right? It’s not just me? Well, the Ravens are a decided No. 32 for me. But the Patriots are 31, and the Seahawks are, I don’t know, 28 or 29. Basically, next Sunday is going to be a fun day to eat and drink and watch football, but there is no outcome that’s going to make me get all swoony.
A couple weeks ago, I’d have said I don’t see anyone beating the Seahawks. But Green Bay really showed us the route to doing it last week, and if Mike flippin’ McCarthy can figure some things out, you know Bill Belichick can. Sure, Russell Wilson isn’t throwing four picks again. But at this point, I have to think the Patriots are the better bet. Whatever, it means another million words from Bill Simmons, but at least we get Gronk Celebration Face.
Yo soy fiesta, y’all.
