FanDuel strategy, Week 5: Undervalued, overvalued players

Consider Week 4 as our annual fantasy mulligan. Consistent producers fell short, random options exploded for high scores, and two of the top three wide receivers were priced at $5,300. In three of my lineups, I enjoyed the slow crawl of demise as the beautiful green oasis of finishing in the money moved ever so slightly beyond my somewhat respectable output.

Avoiding Jared Cook, Calvin Johnson and DeMarco Murray would set your lineup up nicely, as all three drastically underperformed. Deciding not to play Drew Brees, however, was a big mistake, as his game-winning 80-yard touchdown in overtime propelled him to a top-three finish.

For the recommendation side, the polite term for describing last week’s options would be “mixed bag.” A.J. Green and Jason Witten did have respectable outputs, but nothing near the results you’d expect at their salaries. Karlos Williams saved his week with a late touchdown, but he and Tyrod Taylor were both victims of the impotent Bills attack.

Let us pray for a return to normalcy this week.

Overvalued: Joe Flacco vs. Cleveland $7,700

Undervalued: Marcus Mariota vs. Buffalo $7,400

At quarterback, we’ll focus on two disparate options in the midrange of salaries. At one end, we have Joe Flacco, priced this week as a top-10 option. Flacco enters Week 5 missing his top target, Steve Smith, and any semblance of a receiving threat. His production so far has been incredibly inconsistent, vacillating between 20-plus games and single-digit disappointments.

Lacking any downfield options, Flacco in a plus matchup would give me pause, and his matchup against Cleveland is just enticing enough to draw other players in. Trend in the other direction. Instead, take a flier on Marcus Mariota, $300 cheaper and facing an equally juicy matchup. Mariota is fresh off the bye week and, given the crop of quarterbacks playing this week, the sixth-best quarterback in per-game average on FanDuel.

The Bills are the third-most forgiving pass defense to fantasy quarterbacks, allowing a laughable 21.51 points per game. Their run defense is stout, however, posing the likely scenario in which Tennessee attacks mainly through the air. At $7,400, Mariota is a cheap option with high upside, our favorite combination.

Overvalued: Mark Ingram at Philadelphia $8,000

Undervalued: LeGarrette Blount at Dallas $6,200

Originally focused this section on Marshawn Lynch, but with the news that he’s ruled out for Sunday’s game, we’ll look instead toward Mark Ingram. Ingram has been rock-solid thus far, scoring at least 11 points each week and enjoying consistent usage in the passing attack. He’s a great week-in, week-out play for season-long leagues, but for our Week 5 purposes, there’s enough of a red flag to avoid using him as our RB1.

Philadelphia has allowed the seventh-fewest points per game to running backs while being torched through the air each week. Beyond that, Ingram had a touchdown vultured by Khiry Robinson and now faces the prospect of a healthy C.J. Spiller eating into his workload. Admittedly, the outlook is still fairly positive for Ingram, but for Week 5, his chances of finishing in the top five and earning back his salary are lower than we’d like.

Among the cheaper options, LeGarrette Blount has the tantalizing combination of a low salary, a fantastic matchup and the prospect of being on the right end of a beatdown. As any long-suffering Jets fan can attest, a scorned and angry Tom Brady is the scariest version of him, and that anger is only magnified by the idiotic comments about his wife from the reprehensible Greg Hardy.

The Patriots march into Dallas ready to burn Jerryworld to the ground, and the Cowboys’ sieve of a rush defense won’t do much to stifle that game plan. Dallas gives up a third-worst 29.38 points per game to opposing backs, and while Blount has the unfortunate stigma of being a Patriots running back beholden to the whims of Billy B, he’s looking at a prime matchup at a really low cost.

Overvalued: Calvin Johnson vs. Arizona $8,100

Undervalued: Kendall Wright vs. Buffalo $5,900

Poor Calvin. Measured against his stalwart career totals, Johnson’s first four weeks paint a picture of a superstar in decline. He has yet to break 100 yards receiving, scored under 10 points twice and has only found the end zone once. His target totals are promising, but with all of Detroit’s offense struggling, Megatron has yet to demonstrate the world-beating insanity that we know and love. Until we see that production return, Calvin does not represent sufficient value for your $8,100 investment, especially when he faces the stingy Arizona secondary.

The Cardinals allow the seventh-fewest points to opposing wideouts and are the sixth-best pass defense, according to DVOA rankings. Between that defense and Matthew Stafford’s continued struggles, I’m hesitant to again drop top-seven WR salary on Calvin.

From the other end of the spectrum, we have Kendall Wright, speedy slot receiver and fantastic cheap stack with Marcus Mariota. Wright has posted two huge games -- and one big dud, hence his minimal cost -- and has demonstrated undeniable chemistry with Mariota.

Fresh off a 12-target game against the Colts, Wright faces the burnable Bills secondary that just allowed Dwayne Harris to toast them from the slot. Stacking Mariota and Wright gets you the financial freedom to play two top-end RBs, or even pay the Gronk tax.

Overvalued: Jimmy Graham at Cincinnati $6,600

Undervalued: Antonio Gates vs. Pittsburgh $5,500, Owen Daniels at Oakland $4,900

Jimmy Graham’s early season struggles -- relative to his previous dominance -- do not seem to be nearing any sort of solution. This week, he faces a Bengals defense quite stingy against the tight end, allowing only 7.4 points per contest. They have shut down Travis Kelce and Ladarius Green, holding both under 50 yards, and they’ll look to feast on the struggling Seattle attack still missing Beast Mode. Graham’s price continues to dip each week, but until he’s producing at the second-tier cost, he’s not worth your money.

Instead, look toward two cheaper options. Antonio Gates returns this week and will look to take off against a porous Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers allow the fourth-most points per game to the tight end position, a matchup that more than earns Gates’ cheap salary. His price will likely rise once he’s played a few games, so take advantage of his initial cost.

Lastly, there is the age-old adage of Start Literally Any Tight End Vs. Oakland, or SLATEVO. SLATEVO’s results so far would get you a ridiculous 22.7 points per game, over twice the average allowed to tight ends across the league. This week, our option is Owen Daniels, the forever enticing but often frustrating tight end for the Broncos. His low salary reflects his small usage in the attack, but, if you’re a true adherent to the SLATEVO religion, you’ll fire him up and pray at the altar of poor linebacker coverage.