FanDuel strategy, Week 6: Undervalued, overvalued players

If week four was our mulligan, week five was the frantic, club-breaking fury that only fantasy football and FIFA Ultimate Team can truly provide. Josh McCown was our top QB, Dougie Fresh outscored all RBs, and Andre Johnson reanimated himself enough for a second place finish. Our advice unfortunately followed the same illogical bent; Joe Flacco turned into a goal-line monster, against our expectations, while Kendall Wright, LeGarrette Blount, and Marcus Mariota all failed to hit as low-cost options. We did enjoy success with continued caution around Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham, and Mark Ingram, along with identifying the returning Antonio Gates as a fantastic option, as he finished tops for tight ends.

Time for week six, dear friends.

Overvalued: Russell Wilson vs Carolina $8,000

Undervalued: Andy Dalton at Buffalo $7,600

Russell Wilson, proud purveyor of Bose headphones and miracle water, has yet to return any fantasy investment this season. In his five weeks so far, he’s finished as QB15, QB8, QB20, QB17, and QB18. Which week looks like the outlier? His 16.9 points per game puts him at QB12 for this week in terms of output, but his price point has him at the 7^th most expensive, equal cost to the far more productive Carson Palmer. Beyond his lack of tangible results, Wilson faces a Carolina defense that allows the fourth fewest points to quarterbacks so far, at 14.84 points per game. Until we see a solidified and protective offensive line in Seattle, I’m skeptical to play Wilson in any daily game.

Instead, save $400 and rent the Red Rifle. Andy Dalton has quietly put together a dominant start to his fantasy season, averaging a second-best 23.6 points per game among the quarterbacks for this week’s slate. He’s proven to be relatively matchup proof as well, with 28.04 points scored against the Seattle defense last week. This week, Dalton and the Bengals face a Bills defense that’s let up the sixth-most points to the quarterback position and will be most likely missing their own starting QB, as Tyrod Taylor battles an MCL injury. At his price point, Dalton merely has to outperform his average by five points to return value for you, a good bet to make against the forgiving Bills defense.

Overvalued: Marshawn Lynch vs Carolina $8,300

Undervalued: Dion Lewis at Ind $7,200

It never hurts any less to speak ill of my favorite athlete, Marshawn Lynch, but we’re again stuck with a less than ideal situation for employing Beast Mode. Lynch has missed two straight games with a hamstring injury, and even before his injury, he’d yet to enjoy the production that you’d expect. Lynch’s price point has not related his injury concerns, as he comes in this week as our fifth-highest RB with little to show for it. He faces a Carolina defense that is decidedly middle of the pack, allowing 3.8 yards per carry and ranked 21^st in DVOA rush defense. While he’s certainly not facing a buzzsaw, Lynch’s average matchup and injury concern are enough to warrant skepticism at a $8300 salary. Season-long leagues will trot him out happily, but we can spend our money better.

I’d look to Dion Lewis instead. Lewis, the newest member in the Samkon Gado All-Stars, continues his path from irrelevancy to fantasy glory with a matchup against the Colts, a team historically incapable of stopping the Patriots run game. In the last three games against the Patriots, the Colts have been absolutely shredded by the ground attack: Jonas Grey went for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns, while LeGarrette Blount put up 166 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 2014 regular season and then 148 yards and 3 touchdowns in the postseason. In 2015, their rush defense has improved slightly—currently 14^th in most points allowed to RBs—but they’ve yet to resemble anything like an imposing matchup. Lewis has boasted double-digit points every outing this year, enjoying consistent usage in the passing game and enough carries to boast a high floor. Fire him up as an affordable RB1, or, if you’re looking to save even more, take the plunge on his cheaper teammate, LeGarrette Blount.

Overvalued: Randall Cobb vs San Diego $8,100

Undervalued: Julian Edelman at Ind $7,900

Our receiving options in focus this week are similar in budget but different in projection. For Randall Cobb, the season has been seemingly solid thus far; with four touchdowns in five games and an average of 14.1 points per game, he appears to be worth the WR1 price. However, that production is inflated immensely by his devastating week three beatdown of the Chiefs, where he caught three of those four touchdowns and put up 31.8 points. In the last two weeks, Cobb has dropped to 3.8 and 6.9 points respectively, with his health also a concern—he was limited in Thursday’s practice and continues to battle with a shoulder injury. Cobb’s matchup does not help either, as the Chargers boast a stingy secondary that allows the third-fewest points to wideouts but also struggle to continue the rush at all, allowing the second most points per game to opposing backs. My feeling is that the Packers establish Eddie Lacy early and often, a recipe for a diminished return for Cobb.

Conversely, Julian Edelman continually boasts double-digit returns for a cheaper price point. He averages nearly 20 points a game this year, and in his lowest catch game, he still put 120 yards and a touchdown. He faces a Colts secondary both ranked 25^th in pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and consistently torched by the Patriots. As we discussed in the running backs section, New England has had the Colts number for the entirety of the Luck era. Even in the games where the Pats ran the ball down their throat, Edelman averaged 12.5 points and saw his usual collection of targets. Fire him up as a high upside WR in a game where the Pats will try and exorcise all scandalized demons against their snitch.

Overvalued: Jimmy Graham vs Panthers $6,300

Undervalued: Tyler Eifert vs Buffalo $6,000

Listing three Seahawks as overpriced concerns is easily the best recipe for a breakout game for all three, but the data still points toward Jimmy Graham being a recipe for overpaying for mediocre production. Graham has finally slipped toward the second tier of pricing, equally capped as Greg Olsen and only $100 more than Travis Kelce. Yet, his production does not match either of those two options. Graham has at least thus far been a touchdown-dependent, low usage option for our daily games, and until we see a more consistent workload, he’s a risky play. Add in the fact that Carolina has allowed the fewest points per game to tight ends—a minuscule 4.45 points per game—and we see little benefit in paying for Graham.

For $300 less, you can secure the talents of Tyler Eifert, breakout star of the first quarter and touchdown machine. Eifert’s weekly production does include a goose egg in week three, but overall he’s averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game and has six touchdowns to his name. He faces a Bills team this week, a defense that allows the 9^th most points to opposing tight ends. With Dalton flying high, an Eifert/Dalton stack could return huge dividends.