FanDuel strategy, Week 7: Undervalued, overvalued players

As the games ended, and we enjoyed the tragic dwindling from the money peaks to empty-pocket scorelines, I could finally exhale, for in this glorious week, multiple predictions came to fruition. For our overvalued players, only Jimmy Graham managed to salvage a decent week—Russell Wilson finished as QB15, Marshawn Lynch as RB15, and Randall Cobb scored a total of 4.8 points. Cheaper options like Tyler Eifert and Julian Edelman netted you 11 and 14.2 points, respectively. Ultimately, the pendulum has swung from “reprehensibly ill-informed” to “thoroughly mediocre.”

We look to carry that momentum into Week 7, where the wonderful combination of low price and juicy matchup gets us some great value plays.

Overvalued: Tom Brady $9000 vs New York Jets

Undervalued: Carson Palmer $8200 vs Baltimore Ravens

My hands tremble at the notion of implying Tom Brady will have a bad game, forever being the petrified Jets fan incapable of expecting victory or positive results. Brady has perennially and systematically destroyed the entire AFC East that, if the Jets do manage to come away from Foxboro with a win, it will be the first time an AFC East opponent beat the Pats at home since 2006. Nine full years of utter dominance—the glorious day that that automated means of destruction retires will be a great day in Jets history.

Alas, here we are, advocating caution with playing Brady. The Jets boast at worst the second-best defense in the league, allowing a league-fewest 269.2 yards and a miniscule 15 points per game. Their secondary was drastically revamped in the offseason and boasts the stellar cornerbacks needed to at least slow down the Patriots attack. Brady could very well find success through the air, but for the highest salary point at quarterback, the risk for a mediocre fantasy result is too great.

At the other end of the spectrum, we have Carson Palmer. Palmer and the Cardinals face the Baltimore Ravens, employing a defense built to inflate opposing offenses and offer minimal resistance. In back to back weeks, the Ravens defense has allowed Colin Kaepernick to put up 22.6 points and watched as Josh McCown exploded for 35.48, with both quarterbacks struggling to replicate even a fraction of that performance in other games. This week, they face a Cardinals offense looking to bounce back in a big way after their flop against Pittsburgh. Before that game, the Cardinals averaged nearly 32 points per game; are you willing to bet against a rebound game versus the porous Ravens secondary? Palmer is the ideal recipient, as Baltimore allows the league-worst 22.6 points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Overvalued: Chris Johnson $6900 vs Baltimore Ravens

Undervalued: Latavius Murray $7000 vs San Diego Chargers

Sticking on that Cardinals game, we focus on the resurgent Chris Johnson. Johnson has been an early season surprise, taking the opportunity after Andre Ellington’s injury and cementing himself as a lead back in the prolific Cardinals offense. His per game average firmly at 10.8, Johnson would appear to be a decent play against the previously hated-upon Ravens defense. However, while they cannot stop the pass, the team has been relatively stout against the run. Football Outsiders ranks them as the 12^th-best run defense per DVOA, while they allow a middle of the pack 18.65 points per game to opposing backs. Given their weakness against the air, look for the Cardinals to fire up the pass and limit the rush attempts for Johnson.

At roughly the same price, we have Latavius Murray. Murray represents a fairly sizable risk for your cowardly author, as he’s scored a mere 7.4 points over his last two games—both punctuated by unexplained benchings. Because of that, his salary has dropped from $7500 in week four to this week’s $7000. If all goes to plan, we may be facing the final week to get Murray below cost before he returns to fantasy glory. His opponent, the San Diego Chargers, allow the second most points per game to running backs, having just allowed James Starks to rumble for 24.2 points. Stout against the pass but porous against the run, the Chargers have the opposite situation from the Ravens. Fire up Murray as a high-workload, high-upside play at a reduced cost.

Overvalued: Odell Beckham Jr. $9000 vs Dallas Cowboys

Undervalued: John Brown $6700 or Larry Fitzgerald $7800 vs Baltimore Ravens

Continuing the bold calls of the week, we’ll now debate the value of ODB himself, returning to the scene of his climatic catch with the same victims across the field. Beckham has, perhaps understandably, been slightly less consistent in Year 2, bouncing between 20-plus point games and 6-point clunkers. One of those mediocre outings came in Week 1 against his current opponent, the Dallas Cowboys, as ODB merely snagged five catches for 44 yards. The Cowboys continued that stinginess, allowing the seventh-fewest points per game to opposing wideouts. Couple the matchup with ODB’s continued health concerns, and we’re hesitant to drop the $9000 to secure his services.

Look instead to the favorite matchup, airborne Arizona against beat-down Baltimore. Both Larry Fitz and John Brown have enticing price points for this game against the terrible Ravens secondary, which currently allows a second-worst 39.47 points per game to receivers. Fitz’s career resurgence continues to be under appreciated, as his salary is merely the 10^th highest this week. As for Brown, he’s fresh off a 196-yard, 10-catch breakout. While his health is a concern — Brown popped up on the injury report and has a Monday game — he’s a great option if healthy. Each represents fantastic value at the respective price points.

Overvalued: Jordan Cameron $5500 vs Houston Texans

Undervalued: Antonio Gates $5800 or Ladarius Green $5100 vs Oakland Raiders

The pricey options in this week’s slate are all relatively decent options regardless. Players like Olsen and Gronk have bad matchups, but they’re near matchup-proof results and the general scarcity of the tight end position make me hesitant to advise against those guys. Instead, we look among the second tier of players to find Jordan Cameron priced as a top 10 option without the necessary results. Cameron caught his first touchdown of the season last week, giving him the first double-digit result of the season. His usage and production levels—averaging 7.4 targets but only 3 catches and 40 yards a game—indicate a low floor, and his matchup against Houston lacks the juicy upside to warrant his usage.

I’d rather employ either of the Chargers tight ends against Oakland, who have yet (barring the Broncos dumpster fire of an offense) been able to stop the opposing tight end. Gates is the preferred choice among the two, as his return from suspension has provided elite results, but he popped up on the injury report and is a slight risk. If Gates cannot go, I would fire up Green in a heartbeat at the miniscule $5100 cost. Green had been productive in Gates’ absence, and with this tantalizing matchup and red-hot Philip Rivers, he too could be a top play for a low cost.