FanDuel strategy, Week 8: Undervalued, overvalued players

As tragically predicted in this space last week, advising against Tom Brady is a fools errand for only colossally bold or inept writers. His evisceration of my dear Jets, tuned up to 29.7 points and QB2 results, was the big miss of last week’s advice. Chris Johnson’s ability to slide downfield on the backs of his defenders turned a pedestrian day into a top 12 finish, while Carson Palmer’s QB11 result was not as fulfilling as expected. Among the cheap plays, we correctly hit on Ladarius Green, Latavius Murray and John Brown providing great dividends at low cost: avoiding Odell Beckham and Jordan Cameron saved you a good chunk of change without missing solid production.

In this week’s slate of games, we’ll hope to continue finding those low-cost options and avoid big ticket busts. Heed our warning, however: go against vengeful Brady at your own cost.

Overvalued: Aaron Rodgers at Denver Broncos $9,000

Undervalued: Philip Rivers at Baltimore Ravens $8,500

Much like last week, our most expensive quarterback option faces one of the only defenses in the league capable of slowing down his attack. Aaron Rodgers travels to Denver to face the somehow still undefeated Broncos, the NFL version of that team in your fantasy league that is top of the standings with 400 less points against than the rest of the teams. While the Broncos offense has been a colossal flop thus far, their defense has been lights out all year. They hold opposing quarterbacks to a minuscule 10.09 points, the best mark in all the NFL. While Rodgers is still a demigod capable of producing the most ridiculous highlights with seemingly minimal effort, the matchup here is enough to scare me off.

Flip that script and take a look at Philip Rivers, the king of the lofts and current leader in passing yards. Rivers’ on-field production has matched his off-field work -- he’s only three kids away from a full 11 -- as his high percentage, high usage attack travels to Baltimore to face their porous secondary. As we wrote last week, the Ravens are stout against the run but vulnerable to the pass, a weakness that plays perfectly to the Chargers’ strengths. Even with their surprising performance against the Cardinals last week, Baltimore still allows a league-worst 22.01 points per game to quarterbacks. At $8,500, Rivers is our third-priciest passer but I’m confident in the usage and matchup benefits to earn that cost.

Overvalued: Latavius Murray vs. New York Jets $6,900

Undervalued: Doug Martin at Atlanta Falcons $7,500

Praised last week for his matchup and bounceback likelihood, Latavius Murray promptly proved me prophetic with a 15.1 point output. His high workload and unquestioned place in the backfield are great for season-long owners, but for our purposes, we look toward his matchup in Week 8 with great concern. The Jets defense has been absolutely incredible against the run this year, allowing a mere 12.33 points per game and ranked as the best rush defense by Football Outsiders. Their front seven is so intimidating that the Patriots essentially conceded their ground attack last week, with Tom Brady’s scrambles being their leading rusher. While Murray is good for double-digit carries, the upside here is drastically reduced by his matchup. I would not pay top-12 prices for his services.

I would splurge $600 more and snag Doug Martin, my favorite play of the week. Martin’s resurgent year continues against the Atlanta Falcons, proud owners of the third-most forgiving run defense in the league -- they allow 28.54 points per game to opposing backs. Over his last three games, Martin averages 25.7 points and over 100 yards per contest. Between consistent usage, a great matchup and the injuries to the other Tampa Bay weapons, look for a heavy dose of Martin this weekend. Fire him up as your RB1.

Overvalued: Dez Bryant vs. Seattle Seahawks $8,000

Undervalued: Keenan Allen at Baltimore Ravens $8,000

At wideout, we have two $8,000 options headed in opposite directions. For Dez Bryant, this game could be the triumphant return from a foot injury -- that is, once you ignore the matchup and the lack of functional quarterback play. Dallas has struggled with Tony Romo out, with Matt Cassell and Brandon Weeden combining for zero wins and almost zero fantasy relevance. Dez’s return will help the offense immensely, but too many mitigating factors stick out to invest your $8,000. For one, he plays at 4:30 -- lineups locking at 1 will mean if Dez is indeed inactive, you’re stuck with a goose egg. Even if he does play, he’s missed the past seven weeks and the risk of re-injury or rust is readily apparent. Adjust for the matchup -- Seattle allows the second-fewest points to wide receivers -- and you have a huge red flag.

Instead, take that money and secure Keenan Allen’s services. Allen has been amazing this year, barring his one fluke 0.6 outing, and his breakout will continue against the previously outlined Baltimore secondary. Destroyed by all opposing quarterbacks, Baltimore also allows the second-most points per game to wide receivers and was freshly torched by John Brown. Allen has a high floor with his target totals and should be a good shot for red zone production thanks to Antonio Gates’ questionable health. At WR9 for cost, he’s got a great shot at top five production.

Overvalued: Gary Barnidge vs. Ari $6,300

Undervalued: Tyler Eifert vs. Pit $6,000

And, lastly, the great tight end abyss. Since Gronk has already decimated all opponents on Thursday, our options for elite production are somewhat limited. Greg Olsen has a decent matchup against the Colts, but the matchup multiplier isn’t enough to warrant his cost. Jimmy Graham has a brutal matchup against Dallas, the league’s best at stopping the tight end. However, for this week, we’re advising serious caution against Gary Barnidge, shock of the year for me and surprisingly consistent tight end.

Barnidge combines a rough matchup -- Arizona is fourth-best at stopping the tight end -- with struggling health at the quarterback position. Josh McCown is questionable to play this weekend, but even if he does, he’s dealing with a shoulder injury and has been held under 14 points in each of his last two games. If Johnny Manziel plays, Barnidge may struggle to get looks: admittedly, it’s a small sample size, but in the Titans game where Manziel started, Barnidge had one catch for 17 yards.

I would save $300 and once again fire up Tyler Eifert, himself the proud owner of a breakout season. Eifert has six touchdowns on the year and averages 14 points per game. This week, he faces a Pittsburgh defense that has yet to stop the tight end, allowing the third-most points to the position at 14.46 points per game. Last week, the Steelers allowed Travis Kelce, a comparable player to Eifert in usage and production, to go off for 73 yards and five catches. Given the matchup and cheaper price point, Eifert has a great shot for returning your investment.