FanDuel strategy, Week 4: Undervalued, overvalued players

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Welcome to Week 4! Provided that you haven’t emptied your FanDuel account blindly following this advice, we’re here again to take a look at some bargains and rip-offs. Before going forward, we have to go back and own up to any mistakes from the previous column.

At quarterback, avoiding Andrew Luck was the right call; he only netted you 18.5 points against his second-highest salary of $9,000. The replacement option, Russell Wilson, didn’t do much with his plum matchup, only scoring 16.2 points. Running back was a far better call on my part -- advocating for Frank Gore got you a solid 21.9 points while avoiding Matt Forte saved you from paying $8,400 for 7.4 points. Wide receiver and tight end were a bit of a mixed bag. Caution against Calvin Johnson and Jason Witten proved correct when both scored far below their price points: however, Allen Robinson and Kyle Rudolph did little to seize their opportunities.

We’ve developed a solid system for identifying risk, and in week four, we’ll hope to get better about finding more diamonds in the rough.

Overvalued: Drew Brees vs Dallas Cowboys $8,400

Undervalued: Tyrod Taylor vs New York Giants $7,600

We begin with the usual reminder that caution is the name of our value-based game, provided that you too are a fantasy coward forever afraid to take risks with high value targets. Drew Brees comes in this week at our third-most expensive quarterback at $8,400, and his return to the starting lineup is still plagued with injury concerns. Listed as probable but limited in practice, Brees has a banged-up shoulder and diminishing returns through his first two games, scoring an average of 15.3 points thus far. His opponent has held opposing quarterbacks to an average of 16.8 points through three games, good for sixth-stingiest in the league. While you might be comfortable paying name premium for a hurt quarterback, I’d rather avoid that investment.

Instead, look toward early-season darling Tyrod Taylor, the surprisingly effective Buffalo Bills quarterback who continually outscores his expectations. Taylor is fresh off a 24.28 scoreline against the Miami Dolphins, and is scoring an average of 23.1 points per game. His $7,600 salary puts him $800 cheaper than Brees, and he faces a New York Giants defense that has yet to put up any resistance to quarterbacks. The Giants allow 23.9 points per game to quarterbacks, putting them at the ninth-friendliest in the league. While we should note that both LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are out with injuries, Taylor has the rushing and passing upside to overcome those losses against the porous Big Blue.

Overvalued: DeMarco Murray at Washington $7,600

Undervalued: Karlos Williams vs Giants $6,300

Continuing the trend of name premiums and injury risks, we look to DeMarco “Backwards Freight Train” Murray and his pricey $7,600 salary against Washington. Lost among the persistent air of catastrophe in D.C., Washington has been stingy against the run thus far, holding opposing running backs to a second-best 11.97 points per game: only the Kansas City Chiefs have a stouter fantasy rush statline. Murray enters the game with injury concerns and limited practices, listed as questionable for the Sunday game. Even if he does go, you’ll easily find better value plays than Murray, currently priced as a top-ten option.

We originally looked at Danny Woodhead here as a low-cost option, but the decimation of the San Diego Chargers’ offensive line gives enough pause to avoid that route entirely. Instead, go with what is likely a popular pick for this week’s game, Karlos Williams. The young Bills running back gets an unquestioned workload this weekend with LeSean McCoy out for the foreseeable future with a hamstring injury. The Giants, sieve-like in their rushing defense, allow the third-most points per game to running backs at 26.2 a game. Williams has scored over ten points in every game thus far, and with the increased workload and prime matchup, he’s set for a nice week.

Overvalued: Calvin Johnson at Seattle Seahawks $8,100

Undervalued: A.J. Green vs Kansas City Chiefs $8,400

At the top of the wide receiver charts, we have two differing options with wildly divergent expectations. Calvin Johnson again finds himself as a top-six wide receiver by price, but he has yet to earn that salary through production, averaging a mere 12 points per game thus far. The Lions offense has been brutal in their first three games, with one of their receivers going so far as to say that opposing teams know the play before the play begins. They do not exactly get the most hospitable Week 4 bounce-back game, heading to Seattle to face the resurgent Seahawks defense. Seattle allows the fourth-fewest points per game to opposing wideouts, currently at 19.50, and this is while lacking Kam Chancellor for the first two games. Between its elite secondary, a struggling Matthew Stafford and a high price point, Megatron is a mediocre option for your WR1.

A.J. Green represents the other end of that spectrum. Fresh off his evisceration of the Baltimore Ravens secondary, Green welcomes the burnable Chiefs secondary at home. The Chiefs are the league-worst at stopping wide receiver production, allowing an absurd 46.5 points per game to that position so far. With Andy Dalton in a rhythm, Green has a great chance to repeat his excellent performance from last week. You’d be hard pressed to find a better WR1, and this one is a full $1,000 cheaper than the priciest option, Julio Jones.

Overvalued: Jared Cook at Arizona Cardinals $5,400

Undervalued: Jason Witten at New Orleans Saints $6,000

Finally, we arrive at the usual dart throw of tight end. While I’m tempted to just list Jermaine Gresham here every week until FanDuel stops pricing him so highly, that would be rude to a seemingly nice man who never did anything wrong to me. Instead, we’ll highlight perennial fantasy nightmare Jared Cook, who has all the athleticism and none of the production that we need. Cook, priced at $5,400 this week, is fresh off a single-catch outing and has yet to score a touchdown this season. He faces a Cardinals defense fourth-best at stopping the tight end, allowing a mere 5.83 points to the position.

Splurge a bit instead and get Jason Witten at $6000. Witten, apparently subscribed to the Fast and Furious understanding of what injuries are and how they should affect you, is playing through sprained ankles and a bum knee. This didn’t affect much last week -- he still put up 9.5 points for you. Brandon Weeden at quarterback is a definite hindrance, but Witten counterbalances that with a prime matchup against the mediocre Saints defense. The Saints allow 17.77 points per game to the tight end position, which gives Witten just enough upside to earn his cost.